For three of the last four years, I carried out a survey of how bloggers were planning to vote in the Hugos.
Last year this proved a fairly effective methodology, calling Best Novel and Best Short Story correctly and pinging the actual winners as front-runners for Best Novella and Best Novelette. In
2013 two winners were clear and two were missed (
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http://theinferior4.livejournal.com/985103.html
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Personally, No Award and Dark are about tied in my mind, for 4th/5th. Still need to read Mr. Butcher's book, but can't see it being worse than Dark.
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