Asquith's notes, 24 July 1914
At 3.15 we had a cabinet, where there was a lot of talk about Ulster, but the real interest was Grey's statement of the European situation, which is about as bad as it could be. Austria has sent a bullying and humiliating ultimatum to Servia, who cannot possibly comply with it, and demands an answer in 48 hours - failing which she will march. This means almost inevitably that Russia will come on the scene in defence of Servia, and if so it is difficult both for Germany and for France to refrain from lending a hand. So that we are within measurable distance of a real Armageddon.