Northern Ireland #LE14 The story so far
This is an election with few dramatic changes. The major parties have pretty much stayed as they were, as far as we can tell given the changed boundaries. The DUP, SF and Alliance have perhaps slipped back a little, and the UUP moved forward a bit, but that impression based on yesterday's counts is slight enough to be reversible today. (My first take from Mid Ulster early yesterday afternoon was that the SDLP and UUP were in trouble; this was not really borne out by later data.)
The smaller parties have had a good poll. TUV have done best, with at least half a dozen seats in the bag, and UKIP and the PUP have also made gains in places where they had not previously had representation. The People Before Profit Alliance took a seat in West Belfast and the Greens are likely to double their representation in North Down. But NI21 are nowhere to be seen (I hear rumours that they may get some small comfort from Lisburn today).
The list below is of those DEAs where all seats have been filled; my comments on the notional change from the 2011 local elections must be taken with a huge pinch of salt. I am particularly uneasy about the Lisburn/Castlereagh projections, but include them here for completeness.
I'll be on the box again at 2pm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b045g9h7
Completed DEAs
Antrim and Newtownabbey
Airport (5): 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - notional UUP gain from Alliance.
Antrim (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance - notional SDLP gain from SF.
Macedon (6): 3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 TUV, 1 UUP - notional TUV gain from DUP
Three Mile Water (6): 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change.
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
Craigavon (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP - notional DUP gain from SF
Cusher (5): 2 UUP, 1 Ind, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Lagan River (5): 3 DUP, 2 UUP - no notional change
Portadown (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 UKIP - notional UUP and UKIP gains from DUP
Belfast
Balmoral (5): 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Black Mountain (7): 5 SF, 1 People Before Profit, 1 SDLP - notional PBP gain from SF
Castle (6): 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional Alliance gain from SF
Lisnasharragh (6): 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP - no notional change
Causeway Coast and Glens
Ballymoney (7): 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 TUV - no notional change
Causeway (7): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV - notional DUP gain from independent
Coleraine (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 SDLP - notional PUP and UUP gain from DUP and Ind
Derry and Strabane
Ballyarnett (6): 3 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Ind - notional Ind gain from SDLP
Waterside (7): 3 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 UUP - no notional change
Fermanagh and Omagh
Erne North (5): 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - no notional change
Erne West (5): 2 SF, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Mid Tyrone (6): 4 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
West Tyrone (6): 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Lisburn and Castlereagh
Castlereagh East (6): 3 DUP, 1 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional UUP and TUV gains from DUP and Alliance
Downshire East (5): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Downshire West (5): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional UUP gain from DUP
Killultagh (5): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - notional DUP gain from SF
Mid and East Antrim
Bannside (6): 2 TUV, 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP - notional TUV gain from DUP
Carrick Castle (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Ind, 1 UKIP - notional UKIP gain from Alliance
Mid Ulster (complete)
Carntoghter (5): 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - no notional change
Clogher Valley (6): 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Cookstown (7): 3 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - notional UUP gain from DUP
Dungannon (6): 2 DUP, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP - notional SDLP gain from SF
Magherafelt (5): 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Moyola (5): 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP - notional UUP gain from SDLP
Torrent (6): 4 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - notional SF gain from Ind
Newry Mourne and Down
Downpatrick (5): 3 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 Ind - notional Ind gain from SF
Rowallane (5): 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional Alliance gain from UUP
The Mournes (7): 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 UKIP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP - no notional change
North Down and Ards
Ards Peninsula (6): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Comber (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 TUV, 1 Alliance - notional TUV gain from DUP
Holywood and Clandeboye (5): 2 DUP, 1 Green, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP - notional DUP gain from Alliance
The smaller parties have had a good poll. TUV have done best, with at least half a dozen seats in the bag, and UKIP and the PUP have also made gains in places where they had not previously had representation. The People Before Profit Alliance took a seat in West Belfast and the Greens are likely to double their representation in North Down. But NI21 are nowhere to be seen (I hear rumours that they may get some small comfort from Lisburn today).
The list below is of those DEAs where all seats have been filled; my comments on the notional change from the 2011 local elections must be taken with a huge pinch of salt. I am particularly uneasy about the Lisburn/Castlereagh projections, but include them here for completeness.
I'll be on the box again at 2pm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b045g9h7
Completed DEAs
Antrim and Newtownabbey
Airport (5): 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - notional UUP gain from Alliance.
Antrim (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance - notional SDLP gain from SF.
Macedon (6): 3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 TUV, 1 UUP - notional TUV gain from DUP
Three Mile Water (6): 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change.
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
Craigavon (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP - notional DUP gain from SF
Cusher (5): 2 UUP, 1 Ind, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Lagan River (5): 3 DUP, 2 UUP - no notional change
Portadown (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 UKIP - notional UUP and UKIP gains from DUP
Belfast
Balmoral (5): 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Black Mountain (7): 5 SF, 1 People Before Profit, 1 SDLP - notional PBP gain from SF
Castle (6): 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional Alliance gain from SF
Lisnasharragh (6): 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP - no notional change
Causeway Coast and Glens
Ballymoney (7): 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 TUV - no notional change
Causeway (7): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV - notional DUP gain from independent
Coleraine (6): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 SDLP - notional PUP and UUP gain from DUP and Ind
Derry and Strabane
Ballyarnett (6): 3 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Ind - notional Ind gain from SDLP
Waterside (7): 3 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 UUP - no notional change
Fermanagh and Omagh
Erne North (5): 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - no notional change
Erne West (5): 2 SF, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Mid Tyrone (6): 4 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
West Tyrone (6): 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Lisburn and Castlereagh
Castlereagh East (6): 3 DUP, 1 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional UUP and TUV gains from DUP and Alliance
Downshire East (5): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Downshire West (5): 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional UUP gain from DUP
Killultagh (5): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - notional DUP gain from SF
Mid and East Antrim
Bannside (6): 2 TUV, 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP - notional TUV gain from DUP
Carrick Castle (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Ind, 1 UKIP - notional UKIP gain from Alliance
Mid Ulster (complete)
Carntoghter (5): 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP - no notional change
Clogher Valley (6): 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Cookstown (7): 3 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP - notional UUP gain from DUP
Dungannon (6): 2 DUP, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP - notional SDLP gain from SF
Magherafelt (5): 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - no notional change
Moyola (5): 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP - notional UUP gain from SDLP
Torrent (6): 4 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP - notional SF gain from Ind
Newry Mourne and Down
Downpatrick (5): 3 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 Ind - notional Ind gain from SF
Rowallane (5): 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance - notional Alliance gain from UUP
The Mournes (7): 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 UKIP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP - no notional change
North Down and Ards
Ards Peninsula (6): 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance - no notional change
Comber (5): 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 TUV, 1 Alliance - notional TUV gain from DUP
Holywood and Clandeboye (5): 2 DUP, 1 Green, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP - notional DUP gain from Alliance