A War We Can Win
A War We Can Win
And One That We Should
In a letter to the editor of the Aspen Times, concerned citizen Tom Daly put forward an opinion expressed by many Americans: that the current strategy in Afghanistan is not working, that we are bleeding men, and that neither the previous administration nor the current one really knows what it is doing in Afghanistan. Like many Americans, he talks about how the US is one of several powers who have “tried to control Afghanistan” - all of whom have failed. He compares our current situation to the Crusades of Medieval Europe, all of which failed and which will certainly serve as our model of failure. As he points out, “we have not won a single war since World War II, 65 years ago.” 1
He's not alone, as Michael White points out as well the consistent failure of foreign powers to exert their influence on Afghanistan. White also points out the increasing costs of the war, the political corruption of the Karzai regime, and the recent reversal in some of the political reforms instituted during the early war. 2 To many eyes, it seems clear that Afghanistan is becoming the new Iraq, our new Vietnam.
But there's a few problems with this worldview. First off, many of the “facts” on which the suppositions are based are actually incorrect. In fact, contrary to public perception, Afghanistan is hardly “unconquerable” and has been subdued in the past by the Achaemenid Persians, 3 the Khwarezmid shahs, the Mongol Empire, 4 and, believe it or not, the British,whose second and third wars in Afghanistan resulted in a favorable outcome. 5 The crusades were not all failures with the First Crusade in 1095 an unequivocal success while the Third, begun in 1192, resulted in a partial success. 6 Lastly, the United States has not, in fact, lost every war since World War II. The Korean War, in fact, accomplished its main goal (the prevention of a hostile takeover by the South by the North) and the First Gulf War was entirely successful, as were the invasions of Grenada and Panama and the war in Kosovo.
More importantly, however, is the fact that, as White points out, the situation in Afghanistan today is hardly parallel to the previous foreign incursions. As he points out, the Soviet Union was beleaguered with a number of problems that dragged them down, issues the United States does not currently face. 7 Similarly, the British Empire was less interested in actually occupying Afghanistan than in preventing a Russian expansion into the country that could threaten India. More importantly, the Afghan population viewed the oft-mentioned British and Soviet incursions as foreign invasions and were united in opposition to them. 8 Opinion polls in Afghanistan suggest this is anything but the case in Afghanistan, where just last July those polled in Afghanistan felt the United States was a good influence on the country, with an approval rating of 62%. 9 Contrast this with the Taliban who, like the Soviets, have been viewed as a foreign invasion (though from Pakistan rather than Russia), 10 who are viewed negatively with an opposition rating of 69% and less than 20% approval. 11 This also stands in stark contrast with the Iraqi public opinion of American forces, which has generally been low, 12 although approval of American effectiveness has fallen in Afghanistan over the past three years. 13
From this data we can come to one clear conclusion, the United States and NATO forces are not seen as occupiers - but as allies and protectors. This is a good thing and it gives us, as General McChrystal has pointed out, a key advantage in the war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. 14 We are not losing the war, no matter how much it might seem like it at times.
This is not to say that the war is without problems. August saw the greatest number of casualties (47 KIA) since the war began in 2001. 15 The election in Afghanistan has been exposed by international groups as fraudulent and corruption is a long-standing problem in Karzai's regime, as acknowledged by both the Afghan public and the American government. However, focusing on these issues ignores the important work that has already been done, the general approval of both the United States and the national government (including Karzai) by the Afghan public, 16 and the fact that, if the US and NATO were to pull out, it would be a very short road until the return to the political chaos that defined Afghanistan during the 1990s. 17 18
Afghanistan is not Vietnam, as former President Musharraf of Pakistan points out. Vietnam was primarily a regional issue, even taking into account the domino theory that supposed that if Vietnam fell to communism then so would the neighboring states (which did not eventually occur). Rather, Musharraf points out, as both Bush and Obama have, that Afghanistan's government directly aided and abetted the terrorist group al-Qaeda, which launched the 9/11 attacks against the United States as well as several other earlier, smaller strikes. Were the United States to withdraw from Afghanistan, Musharraf believes there is a non-insubstantial chance that Afghanistan would return to Taliban rule either wholly or partially, which would undoubtedly lead to an increased danger to the United States. 19
Musharraf is hardly alone in this view. Debra J. Saunders of the San Francisco Chronicle also believes that a withdrawal from Afghanistan would likely lead to al-Qaeda's resurgence, primarily based on the publicity victory they would score by defeating the United States. 20 Pulling out of Afghanistan is not akin to signing a ceasefire with an enemy we never really had, as was the case in Vietnam; it is a case of admitting defeat to an enemy that has publicly made it their known priority to execute attacks against the United States. Afghanistan is a defensive war, not an offensive one.
Some, of course, have pointed out that the primary base of al-Qaeda and Taliban operations is currently in northeast Pakistan. This is absolutely true and as a result many Democrats in Congress have proposed we go to Pakistan, which “matters.” This opinion infuriates and offends Fariba Nawa, an Afghan-American dual citizen and freelance journalist, who maintains that it's not that simple. 21
She's hardly alone. Considering that the Taliban originated in Pakistan 22 it shouldn't be at all surprising that their presence there is a danger to the Pakistani government. However, we cannot afford to simply abandon Afghanistan while pursuing the Taliban in Afghanistan. As Musharraf points out, a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan would likely mean an increase in power and prestige for the Taliban within Pakistan, which would only serve to increase the current crisis in Pakistan. 23 Because we cannot afford to destabilize Pakistan, a nuclear power, it is imperative than that we work to cooperate with the Pakistani government and focus our efforts, for now, on Afghanistan, thereby cornering the Taliban so that a combined military effort by the United States and Pakistan can eliminate the group's threat once and for all.
Others among us recognize that we face a win or lose situation but propose that the problem with our approach is that we are too kind to our enemies. Daly, from his earlier letter, proposes that we engage in strategic bombing on a scale similar to that carried out during World War Two. 24 Others in Congress have proposed a similar plan, a withdrawal from Afghanistan proper and reliance instead on air strikes from offshore bombers and UAV drones. This, McChrystal maintains, would be a deadly mistake. The most important weapon in a guerrilla war such as the one we are fighting in is public support. Currently, the Afghans see the Taliban as the enemy. It is imperative that this remain the case. Instead, we should use our resources to promote goodwill amongst the Afghan people. If the Afghan people reject the Taliban in the long term and we back this decision with our military, than we win. If the Afghan people decide that America is a greater enemy, than we lose. 25
McChrystal isn't alone in this thinking. Musharraf also believes that the key United States strategy should be to garner public support in the Muslim world through serving as a third-party mediator between Israel and the Palestinians as well as India and Pakistan while also focusing their military efforts in Afghanistan, noting Iraq as a significant mistake in foreign policy by his “good friend” former President Bush. 26 Historical evidence supports this - the key issue in both the British and Soviet wars with Afghanistan was the lack of a national unity in support of the occupying powers. Currently, we have avoided this pitfall but it will take constant effort to keep this up because, in the long term, Afghanistan has never been able to develop a concrete national identity since the fall of the monarchy in 1978. 27
This means, ironically, not opposing Karzai, in spite of the evidence he rigged the election. Public opinion polls from IRI see a clear majority approving Karzai as a leader and embracing him as a symbol of unity in much the same way the monarchy was once seen as a unifying force. 28 In fact, in contrast to American perceptions of the Afghan president, Karzai is not the commonly seen as a US puppet - that dubious honor belongs to challengers Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, who Afghans feel were propped up by the American government. To oppose Karzai right now would be a poor decision, which would likely be seen as unwanted foreign interference in a local issue (the election).
The war in Afghanistan will not be easy. But then again, no war is easy. As White points out, compared with previous conflicts, Afghanistan is hardly the disaster some make it out to be. Compare, for instance, the casualties of Afghanistan with those of the first day of the Battle of the Somme in World War One, in which 20,000 British soldiers alone perished, or to the thousands who die in car accidents or from lack of proper healthcare. This is not to detract from the tragedy of the deaths in the war in Afghanistan, which are mourned by those on both the left and the right. But as you mourn them, consider that each of these soldiers, every single one of them, was a volunteer. They were not draftees, forced into a war they did not believe in; they were not even brought into a war that the native population did not believe in. White believes we, of the United Kingdom and United States, have forgotten the true cost of war, partially because we have not suffered a foreign occupation for centuries. 29 I'm inclined to agree.
Afghanistan is a war we can win. So let's make sure that we do.
Bibliography
1Daly, Tom. Get out of Afghanistan, AspenTimes.com (October 5, 2009), http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20091005/LETTER/910059997/1020
2White, Michael. History suggests we should get out of Afghanistan, but should we?, guardian.co.uk (August 18, 2009), http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/aug/18/afghanistan-michael-white
3“Map of the extent of Persia in 490 B.C.,” Ancient/Classical History, About.com, http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/geography/ig/Maps-of-Ancient-Greece/Persian-Empire-Map.--lv.htm
4Invictus. The Mongol Empire, All Empires (February 2000; orig. 2001), http://www.allempires.com/article/index.php?q=The_Mongol_Empire
5Hyman, Anthony. “Nationalism in Afghanistan,” Int. J. Middle East Stud. 34 (Cambridge University Press; 2002), p. 304
6Crusades, New Advent: The Catholic Encyclopedia, http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/04543c.htm
7White
8Hyman, p. 304, 310-11
9Afghanistan Public Opinion Survey: July 16-26, 2009, The International Republic Institute, http://www.iri.org/mena/afghanistan/pdfs/2009%20August%2014%20Survey%20of%20Afghan%20Public%20Opinion%20July%2016-26,%202009.pdf
10Hyman, p. 311-12
11IRI
12What the Iraqi Public Wants, World Public Opinion.org (January 31, 2006),
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/jan06/Iraq_Jan06_rpt.pdf
13Afghanistan: national opinion poll for BBC, ABC News and ARD, BBC Press Office (February 2, 2009), http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2009/02_february/09/afghanistan.shtml
14Saunders, Debra J. We have too much invested to quit Afghanistan, Redordnet.com (September 9, 2009), http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090909/A_OPINION0619/909090314
15ditto
16IRI
17Saunders
18Leys, Tony. Musharraf: U.S. Afghanistan pullout would be 'disastrous,' USA Today (October 4, 2009), http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-10-04-musharraf-afghanistan-withdrawal_N.htm
19ditto
20Saunders
21ditto
22Hyman, p. 312
23Leys
24Daly
25Saunders
26Leys
27Hyman, p. 300, 306-7
28IRI
29White