Smoking
I've been wondering about second hand smoke an heartburn. It is possible that I've developed that reaction, but how to tell? The initial subjective tracking I've been doing may be biased as I detest cigarette smoke. Now that I wonder if there is a connection, I'm subject to conformational bias. There is some literature suggesting an increased risk of heartburn from second hand smoke, but I don't have access to those papers to evaluate. Even then, I would only be able to come up with a probability. Over all my case of heartburn, x% will be able to attribute y% to heartburn.
Actually, that's good enough for me. I don't want to "do the experiment" to find out for certain. I'm comfortable with the probability. I spend a lot of time thinking in probabilities. A person has a certain genetic typing, but the typing is not precise. There are several possibilities, and the probability of each possibility is not uniform. Creationists would love to have me talk, because I cannot deny that my understanding of science, statistics, and mathematics has been a major influence in concluding there are no deities.
Back to the point. While I can't know for certain, I would like to have some likelihood that second hand smoke contributes to my heartburn. (I need to see an MD about it, anyway, but I am so sick of doctors right now.) That is the one failing of Montreal, all the smokers. The streets aren't littered with cigarette butts as in the U.S. Maybe that smokers appear to be a greater percentage of the population makes them more likely to properly dispose of butts? No, not likely. Cultural? Montreal is cleaner than U.S. cities. Maybe it isn't culture. Maybe the city employs a small army to keep the city clean.
It seems I can't stick to a topic tonight. Let's see, a few sips of wine, too much pasta, very little chocolate, lots of walking. Either my chocolate level is too low or I'm tired (or both). I'll just throw out a number and say that I'm 10% confident that second hand smoke is a heartburn trigger for me. I can refine and re-evaluate the estimation once I have better information.
Actually, that's good enough for me. I don't want to "do the experiment" to find out for certain. I'm comfortable with the probability. I spend a lot of time thinking in probabilities. A person has a certain genetic typing, but the typing is not precise. There are several possibilities, and the probability of each possibility is not uniform. Creationists would love to have me talk, because I cannot deny that my understanding of science, statistics, and mathematics has been a major influence in concluding there are no deities.
Back to the point. While I can't know for certain, I would like to have some likelihood that second hand smoke contributes to my heartburn. (I need to see an MD about it, anyway, but I am so sick of doctors right now.) That is the one failing of Montreal, all the smokers. The streets aren't littered with cigarette butts as in the U.S. Maybe that smokers appear to be a greater percentage of the population makes them more likely to properly dispose of butts? No, not likely. Cultural? Montreal is cleaner than U.S. cities. Maybe it isn't culture. Maybe the city employs a small army to keep the city clean.
It seems I can't stick to a topic tonight. Let's see, a few sips of wine, too much pasta, very little chocolate, lots of walking. Either my chocolate level is too low or I'm tired (or both). I'll just throw out a number and say that I'm 10% confident that second hand smoke is a heartburn trigger for me. I can refine and re-evaluate the estimation once I have better information.