Even Crazier Days in Ireland

Jan 21, 2011 11:43

So, I last posted just shy of two months ago. I'm need to write more (although immediate points are being made via Twitter), but the biggest piece of personal news was embargoed and in relation to society & politics it all boiled down to the fact that Fianna Fáil were still in government & bastards and the increasing evidence about the evils of the Vatican. I'm also trying to decide if I stick with LJ or move to my own blog, dunno yet.

So, I didn't.

But now an embargo has been removed and politically things have exploded so I shall.

First off, the wonderful news, I am to become an uncle over the summer. Yes, my brother only got married in December, but child related miracles are quite common around that time of year. :)

And now for some politics. Wow. The last week has seen Brian Cowen, the Irish Taoiseach, go from embattled, to victorious (in a motion of confidence vote strictly from his own party) to, well, utterly and completely fucked. To say this amuses me greatly would be a huge understatement. There are two wonderful Irish Times articles that should be read on this, one by Stephen Collins and one by Miriam Lord. In short Cowen, flush with power from his successful vote during the week, tried to create a new front bench, really hammer down his coalition whipping boys (the Greens) and show who was in charge.

He failed.

The Greens objected, the backbenchers objected, the Opposition objected, the country objected. We watched scenes of chaos in the Dáil with Mary Coughlan (Cowen's deputy) clearly not having any idea what to do. Then finally Cowen appeared, performed incredibly badly, made a hash of covering up his failed reshuffle and announced there would be an election on the 11th of March. It feels good to type that.

Of course the speculation now is that he may not have that much control. It's possible he'll be got rid of by his party now, less than a week after they backed him, and the Opposition (particularly Labour) are trying to decide whether to take that date or to force the issue. Everything is quieter today, there's nothing on in the Dáil, everyone is retreating to consider their options, but the storm is far from over and the weekend could well bring lots more news.

What's likely to happen? Well, this will harm FF even more, possibly to the point past recovery, but that's very hard to say, the party is so interwoven into Irish life (mores the pity). There are a couple of people (Martin & Hanafin spring to mind) who could possibly split after a disasterous General Election to form something new, but the risks are obvious and FF has survived that kind of thing before, albeit an FF in a very different state, with a very different leader. What is certain is that this is probably the most chaotic and changeable I've ever seen politics in the Republic and I'm sure I'm going to have a lot more to talk about over the coming weeks.
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