Looking back
After a brief summer interlude, a short article outlining some of the recent naval events in the Black Sea region, the attacks on the Black Sea Fleet, and looking back at a couple of calamitious events of World War II.
Part 1 - recent naval events in the Black Sea region
The tempo of sea and air attacks by Ukraine has increased sharply in the last month. At first glance, the main events to note include:
1. Starting with attacks in August on the:
· Kerch Bridge with a maritime drone and missiles
· ‘Olenegorsky Gornyak’ off Novorossiysk,
· Tanker ‘Sig’,
2. Followed by a series of Storm Shadow missile attacks on Sevastopol,
· Destruction / serious damage to a drydock and vessels,
· Missile strike on Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol,
3. Along with Ukrainian attacks:
· By SOF small boat raids on Crimea,
· Recapture of the Boyko Towers,
4. Then there are repelled attacks on the Russian navy ships:
‘Ivan Khurs’, 'Vasily Bykov', ‘Sergey Kotov’, ‘Samsun;
5. Change of tactics forcing:
· Black Sea Fleet combat vessels into escort operations for selected civilian ships,
· Use of deceptive camouflage on Russian Navy ships,
· Placing of block ships across the western approaches to Kerch Bridge.
6. Ukraine has created a specialized Brigade operating maritime drones in recent weeks.
Taking into consideration the list of attacks in August and September, the situation with overall combat effectiveness and initiative by the Black Sea Fleet appears to have been left high and dry. The question is: is it systematic or muddling through, or even a combination of both?
Judging by the resourcefulness of Ukrainian led waves of attacks, the Russian military high command political leadership are constantly put on the backfoot in several areas. The limited resourcefulness is only achieved led by the combined forces of Ukraine, U.S. and NATO. As such tactics evolve ceaselessly, and intense intelligence gathering is still very active in all spheres. The question is what is the purpose of these attacks? Tactical distraction, attempts to gain a symbolic successful or tests to evaluate Russian tactics?
The Black Sea Fleet is put into an awkward position, especially with the recent high-profile loss of a submarine in Sevastopol. Obviously, there are those who view these events with alarm and bewilderment.
At the end of day, how many of these attacks actually inflict serious damage to the Russian navy? How many of these attacks will have long-lasting repercussions on the combat effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet in the next 6 months?
Part 2- the wider picture - looking back
As some of you know, I have an interest in naval history, particularly WW2, notably the Atlantic and Arctic Convoys. It was a long-drawn bloody saga when the grim reality was often in stark contrast to the precepts of high military authorities. There were events back then, when taken at face value, (with a pinch of hindsight) that were disgraceful and bewildering, interlocked with arrogance and incompetence. One such example is the Admiralty order for the ill-fated PQ17 convoy to scatter, the order given by the First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Pound . (Article / in-depth article).
Another example is the steadfastness refusal to acknowledge the usefulness of specialist maritime aircraft to hunt U-Boots, at time when the Nazi German navy submarine service were sinking thousands of merchant ships in the Atlantic. Eventually, the arrival of dedicated Coastal Command aircraft, along with the invention of the 10cm radar, meant doom for U-Boot crews. The decoding of German naval high command signals by Bletchley Park, (link) was another breakpoint moment for the Battle of the Atlantic, with the Allies gaining the upper hand over the Kriegsmarine’s Wolfpacks.
In short, there are many other tragic and grim naval episodes, which left their mark. Conversely, other events mitigated these losses and grim events. Decades later, individual calamitous events are invariably seen as historical footnotes and what remains is the overall military and geopolitical result of conflicts.
Narratives and perceptions
What sets the current conflict apart from the naval conflicts of WW2, is instant online communication. The combined power of social media, MSM and info warfare space that shape public opinion and structures perceptions is extremely powerful.
Essentially, every image and footage of military attacks and events is dissected avidly by military experts and self-appointed pundits alike. In brief, every snapshot is basically analysed to the nth degree*, with heaps of speculation added.
Add in the tropes that do the rounds of social media, ad nauseam. All of which generate an intensely artificial rendering of events, as always skewed towards the sensationalist outlook. Another element is the endless rounds of glib comments, symptomatic of a momentary feel-good factor, solely based on on short-lived successes or drawing attention on Russian weaknesses. Individual setbacks and disasters are magnified and distorted to suit the necessary propaganda narratives.
The end result of this is that the majority of people are lured into a false bubble of superior smugness, and at the same time, trapped in a vicious spiral of being fed surreal stream of lies and deceit. The resulting hubris is staggering and frightening.
The narrative bites, upholding democracy, fighting dictatorships is once more spun in a very disingenuous way, on a daily basis. Only a handful dare to venture beyond the paper-thin script of supporting "democratic values" and look deeper into what is being stated, or try to ask awkward questions.
Side note: One tiny example of this farcial combination of smugness, falseness and shallowness of narratives: the marking of the 50th anniversary of the coup against Salvador Allende, which brought into decades long military repression. This is being commemorated in places in Europe, as a struggle and as a tragic anniversary, but the aspect that it was the U.S. that backed the coup and trained the death squads is significantly absent from certain mainstream events and articles.
Burying the bigget picture
The necessary questions or debate on the overall successes of Ukrainian air and naval attacks is not present in the MSM, especially where this could potentially lead to. There are other questions that ought to be asked about the amount of direct U.S. and NATO resources and assistance to Ukraine in attacks against Russia. What would happen if the tables were turned, if Russia decide to take the same approach and stance as Washington and Brussels are recklessly taking?
You, the reader know well what the answer is. (Chilean coup, Grenada, Panama, Libya, Iraq are just some example of the glaring telltell clues, but no one wants to see the elephant in the room, stomping, trampling other countries, in the interests of national security). Well, other than the President of Colombia, this week at the UNGA, who managed to spell it out:
"Latin America has been called upon to produce war machines, men to go to the killing fields... our countries have been invaded several times by the very same people who are now talking about combating invasions. They forgot that our countries were invaded several times. By the same ones today speak of fighting against invasions. They forgot that Iraq, Libya, Syria, were invaded for oil. They forgot that the same reasons they speak out to defend Zelensky are the same ones that should defend Palestine. They forgot that, to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, all of the wars should have been ceased.
But they helped fire up a war, because it suited the world power in their game of thrones, in their hunger games, and they forgot to end up the other ones, because it was not convenient to finish them. What is the difference between Ukraine and Palestine? Isn’t it time to end up both wars? And the other ones? And taking a short time to build the path to save life in the planet?. Link
"We are not thinking about how to expand life to the stars, but rather how to end life on our own planet," President Gustavo Petro.
One question that needs no elaboration, but never raised in official circles or Western MSM is whether the US would have responsed similarly to the same kind of provocations on its own borders, to how Russia eventually reacted in February 2022. Back to the Black Sea events. Another question ought to be asked, how would Washington react to 'attacks' on its mainland, similarly to what Crimea and Russia is experiencing?
The Black Sea Fleet, Crimea and Russia will be continuously probed, attacks by U.S., NATO covert forces and Ukrainian military, other losses will be incurred, material and symbolic, but in the end, which side will eventually gain the upper hand?
*https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/to-the-nth-degree