Not so trivial now
Those red lines
I wrote an update on the marine drones (USV and UUV types) just yesterday after the dawn attack on Sevastopol. I had my niggling doubts that this was some kind of test, given that the port, the fact that its entrance is heavily defended. I couldn't put my finger on it, it was an ineffectual attack, that was repelled with little difficulty. Was it a distraction for something else, testing out reactions?
This morning, I saw the news about an attack on the Crimean Bridge, at the height of the tourist season, again a pre-dawn attack. Reports suggest marine drones laden with explosives were used, at 4.21 in the morning, resulting in heavy damage to support pillars, in the area of the 145th support near to the Kuban side. Once more a lapse in infrastructure security, duly exploited to deadly effect.
From my point of view, that was predictable, given the persistent threats and Sevastopol was just the distraction, to assess the interaction and coordination of Russian units. Reports on social media that there was a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper flying over the Black Sea, to gather the necessary data and intelligence, to be swiftly given to the Ukrainian 'partners' or more likely U.S. personnel on the ground in Ukraine, overseeing these the planning, lead-up and the actual attack phases. There is no confirmation that there was a MQ-9 at the time, but given previous attacks, there was USAF and NATO air Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft operating in the region.
Right on cue, this morning, there is a frenzy of U.S., UK and NATO air activities, notably TWO USAF RQ-4 and UK Rivet Joint over the neutral waters of the Black Sea, scooping all kinds of visual, radio, electronic data. Just waiting for a Russian Air Force interception or two, (or not).
It was on the books, but the question was when and how? Ominously, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly asserted their dark desires to see the bridge destroyed. Additionally, just yesterday the Ukrainian Commander of the Ground Forces, Alexander Syrsky, wrote at 22:00 that a "lullaby" is being prepared for the "occupiers". Last night, the ferry service between Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory was temporarily stopped (TASS report), so there was some reaction on the part of the Russian authorities on a threat posed to infrastructure in the region.
All of the pro-Ukrainian airheads and numbskulls are gleeful once more, never mind the report of two civilians killed. This is the depraved reality, the Bandera glorifiers want to destroy Russia, despise Russians intensely, to the extent that they consider Russians as sub-humans and are all too eager the celebrate deaths hastily without a twinge of remorse whatsoever, (the shark attack in Egypt is a case in point). The attitudes towards the SMO is the culmunation of their depravity, willingly put on show on social media.
Yet, the Russian government in the past, has spoken about red lines. Shoigu himself promised immediate “attacks on decision-making centers” in the event of an attack on Crimea. Empty words, there's a huge stack of them now, which the Ukrainian curators, the U.S. and NATO are trampling all over, without much concern.
Astonishingly, the head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, urged people to choose a land route through Donbass and Kherson, (as if that wasn't more secure, given the Shadow Storm attack on the 22 June, leaving a hole in the Chonhar bridge that connects Kherson to Crimea). Maddening as it seems, there is a compulsive need on the part of the Russian authorities to maintain just more than a veneer of normalcy, at a time, when Ukraine authorities are getting more fraught each day over its failed and bloody military counteroffensives. Ukraine will continue to lash out in any way it sees fit, with the approval of its curators.
The message is clear, just so happens to be on the day that the UN Grain Deal expired. The attack won't the last and reflects the assymetrical nature of the conflict, at a time when the frontlines are hundreds of kilometres away.
A sorry tale or charade, when the U.S. and the EU alongside with Turkey and Ukraine are urging Russia to stay with the UN Grain deal but at the same time provide in-depth intelligence and targeting designation for attacks such as that on the bridge, with civilian casualties.
Type of USV
The original 2022 type
The above sketch is based on the original type used in 2022, they have also been used in the ship attacks on the Ivan Khurs and the Priazovye, given their longer range and endurance. Based on an original U.S. design, the MANTAS T-12, they continue to be adapted and modified by Ukraine. These are around 5.5 m in length with an approximate weight of 1000kg. Potentially, the explosive payload is up to 200kg.
However, there is a video of a jet-ski type USV that allegely appeared in June, which goes to show the constant adaption of designs.
unknown type of USV
It is quite possible that the jet-ski type could have been used or the original type (since it is larger in size). Certainly, there would have been a decoy or two, along with those with explosives onboard. I'd like to point out that new designs are adapted by using readily sourced parts and power systems and that this is an ongoing process.
It is possible that several of these could have rounded the Crimean peninsula, then loitered at a given point, (hence the USAF drone activity to coordinate and act as a relay station), before being activated to carry out a strike on bridge.
Rev:1.1 Updates will be made.
Update 1 -REMUS 600 story
According to social media sites, the Telegram channel 'Resident', citing a source in Zelensky's office, states that the attack on the Crimean bridge was allegedly carried out using the UK's REMUS 600 underwater autonomous marine robot with an additional payload of explosives.
Umm, well, uh, repurposing a REMUS 600 as a suicide UUV is somewhat unusual, but at this stage, I wouldn't put it past the Ukrainians to try this, with some help from their curators, in this instance, the U.S. and UK military and intelligence hub.
REMUS 600 is torpedo shaped underwater drone, (AUV or UUV), designed in the U.S for naval operations, as a mine hunter platform. The original weight of the AUV is 240 kg, with a very limited payload ability. It has a length of 4.3m and diameter of 0.7m. In its current form it weighs 320kg when neutrally buoyant.
The role of a REMUS 600 is to detect seabed and underwater mines, with a range of sensors, principally, Synthetic Aperture Sonar. 320 kg isn't much. Although it has a stated specification of 70 hours at a speed of up to 5 knots and a range of 286 nautical miles, i.e. almost 500 km, (as quoted from the TG - the data is a direct quote from the WHOI website on the REMUS 600 oceanography version).
That's as a minhunter AUV, not with any heavier external payloads. If it have external payloads with explosives, its range and endurance would be MUCH MUCH shorter. It is alleged that the REMUS 600 was launched from a civilian ship in the Black Sea, one that had a crane to handle the 240kg + x?x explosive payload. That's possible, for an incognito ship passing to /from Romania to Georgia, to launch a UUV a hundred nautical miles off the Crimea in the dead of night. It would certainly be a new chapter in high-tech covert operations. The U.S. has decades of experience in this domain.
I find difficult to believe that such a mine hunting AUV was used, given that they are rare and also the AUV is quite packed as it is. The forward section: sonar, auxiliary battery pack and sensors, with an onboard navigation system. The rear section: motor assembly, main battery unit, and system electronics and communications. Any explosives would have to be carried as external payload, greatly affecting the navigability, range and endurance. This all would require considerable modification of the unit, steering control, battery capacity, power systems and electronics, just to get neutral buoyant.
In my opinion, stating the use of a REMUS 600 is a tantalising cover story to hide the real type of AUV / UUV design. Ukraine has already stated that it has developed an UUV, the TLK-150 or Toloka. It is still in early stages of development and simplier in design and it is doubful that they used the UUV as shown publicly. It is likely that multiple versions are being developed, there is one version with a range of 1200 km. It seems that one type was used in the repelled attack on the Ivan Khurs.
Behind the scenes, Ukraine is a test bed for all kinds of equipment, so it wouldn't be surprising if a kind of hybrid based on the REMUS 600 was being developped.
The Ukrainian Navy has been training with minhunting AUV since last summer, in the UK, as part of a crew for two Sandown class minesweepers given to Ukraine by the UK. In August 2022, " Britain's defence ministry said on Saturday it was giving six underwater drones to Ukraine to help clear its coastline of mines and make grain shipments safer." (Reuters Aug 2022). The AUVs, (REMUS 100), are lightweight in comparision to the REMUS 600 and have limited range, depth and endurance.
It does not preclude that Ukrainians are being sent on training courses to operate signfiicantly different USVs and UUVs. The Royal Navy itself operates the REMUS 100 unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) range. An order for three SeaCat UAVs was made in August 2022 for the Royal Navy. These are modular minehunting AUVs. None would have been able to carry the necessary explosives needed to cause as much damage as seen in photos and videos.
An important aspect to consider with this story regarding the REMUS 600, is the explosive payload, which would be quite small compared to the MANTAS T-12 derived surface USV. Videos showing the damage show the uplift of parts of the span. If indeed, it had been a submerged explosion, it would have taken a lot more explosive charge channeled upwards to have the same effect. Yet, we are told that the REMUS 600 was the culprit with potentially a smaller charge, surrrrre...
This is the thing, tell a yarn, put a smattering of really vague truths in it to make it sound just about more realistic to the average clueless person on the street, (REMUS 600 instead of REMUS 100), state the REMUS is UK, (when it is U.S.in origin, but note some REMUS 100 are operated by the Royal Navy.
More to come