Crimea - tourists and Russian Navy
Today, reports came in that Russian air defence systems were active over the Kerch area (TASS report). At first sight, it might not be interesting, given the numerous times that Ukraine have launched missiles against various places in Crimea.
There's just one thing to note, it is the tourist season and there are bottlenecks of traffic of vacationers in the Kerch region. Set against the never ending fanciful wishes, statements of NATO, U.S., Ukraine media and commentators, citing yet again a tourist seaon failure as a manner of fact, the situation on the ground is somewhat different, although still difficult, given the limited access and lack of water resources.
Currently, the tourist influx is complicated by the fact that there are no air flights to Crimea. Additionally, trucks are banned from using the Crimean Bridge and the exisiting ferrries cannot cope with the volume of traffic. Hence, traffic jams formed at Kuban entrance to the Crimean Bridge in early July. On the morning of July 4, the length of the traffic jam was 4 kilometres, the waiting time was up to two hours. On the Crimean side, the queue was 0.1 km, the waiting time was 10 minutes.
"What will happen in Crimea when the tourist season starts and the missiles start flying?" asked the film director Karen Shakhnazarov on Russia 1 channel back in May.
The Crimean Bridge is a key target for Ukraine, as the truck bombing on the 8th October 2022, vividly underscored the dogged determination in wanting it totally destroyed, an event repugnantly celebrated with the issue of commemorative stamps a day later. This single-minded tenacity in sorely wanting the Crimea Bridge out of action, has not waned since last year. As much, there are and will be attempts on disrupting the flow of traffic either on the bridge first and foremost. However, this dogged determination to see the comings and goings related to Crimea severely hampered can also be extended to sea traffic as well.
So much for a 'poor' tourist season, if the fact that there are now periodically snarls up of traffic using the Crimean Bridge, which connects Crimea peninsula to Russia proper. The average traffic crossing it is around 20,000 vehicles with inspection points for security checks at either end.
After the latest cruise missile shootdown on Sunday, traffic on the bridge in both directions was briefly suspended and then resumed. The bottlenecks continue to build up, however additional inspection posts have been opened at the entrances to the Crimean Bridge to shorten the queues.
This kind of incident kepts everyone busy and it can also be considered as part of a ongoing pyschological series of provocations, as well as military probes by Ukraine aimed at causing as much as apprehension and unease for all. Done with the added prospect of obtaining some more media attention, if a succesful strike should occur.
So much so, that the Russian Navy is lending a hand in alleviating the jams that have built up. It has deployed an amphibious landing ship to transport cars across the Kerch Strait. The trial voyage, (using a project 775 Ropucha class), betwen Kerch and and the port of Kavkaz had 10 trucks, (so I guess the naval ship will carry certain types of trucks and not cars, but I suppose that depends on the nature of bottlenecks).
Screenshot from TV channel video TV Crimea 24
The issue of bottlenecks was discussed at high governmental level on the 4th of July, where President Vladimir Putin had a meeting , (video), with government members, where he called for maximising ferry crossings to alleviate the problem, which was expected to peak on July 16-17.
"This morning I spoke with Shoigu, he will provide us, if necessary with two large landing ships, which each takes 40 vehicles.
If they make 5 trips a day, this another 200 cars for each ship, that is, in general, we will be able to transport 1000 across the crossing." Transport Vitaly Saveliev
There needs to be a cautionary tales in all of this, as I said on the Telegram channel. The question: Why are they using a naval ship at time when there are considered as targets by U.S./NATO sponsored and managed Ukrainian military?
Yet, equally worrying are the traffic jams, in specfic areas, easily seen on satellites, which could also be potentially seen as targets for Ukrainian missiles strikes. Not something easily dismissed given their long-standing record on hitting Donbass civilian infrastructure and cities, (hospitals, markets, schools) and also their terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge last bridge, is anything to go by.
There you have it, it is possible to send a Storm Shadow missile or even some USV drones to attack the navy ship, given that the route will be trackable, monitored. (Given some of the ravings on social media on sinking the ship, in symbiosis with general reflection of the attitudes at high-level in Ukraine, it would be discerning to ignore potential attempt to disrupt and attack the ships). Worst still, if an attack occurs at the pier while (un)loading. So far Russian air defence has coped, thankfully.
The intermittent bottlenecks have been causing a bit of a headache, (link in Russian) so there is a need to clear them due to the serious risks. Crimean Transport Minister Nikolai Lukashenko said on the 5th of July that the congestion at the entrance to the Crimean Bridge from Krasnodar Krai had been got rid of. But on the 7th, traffic jams appeared on the Crimean side. It is a persistent problem that obviously needs some detailled studying on how to tackle the congestion on peak days, without having to ask the navy to step in as a last minute resort.
Judging by the media articles,the naval ship is using the ferry route is across the narrowest part of the strait (about 5 km) between Port Krym, close to Kerch and Port Kavkaz on the Chushka Spit. It was used as a ferry route from 1954 until 2020. Following the 8th October 2022, bombing of the Crimean Bridge explosion, the ferry route was restarted using 'Kerch-2' and 'Yeisk'. They have a low passenger and freight volume capacity. There are 6 ferries in operation at present.
Overall, there is also a need to work out a better solution using a civilian chartered RO-RO ships from let's say, Novorossiysk, further away from missile range and set up extra seasonal ferry routes. Paradoxically, the navy apparently has civilian crewed RO-RO ships at its disposal, (an estimated 9 of them), but not at a short notice it seems. It does unwittingly highlight the weird naval nature of the conflict, where a few ships are kept very busy, especially the Kalibr-carrying ones, while other idle, train or await some exercises.
Anyone joining the dots?
Kerch gets targeted with missile strikes, the very same place that is reportedly the port for tourist arrivals and departures, some on a naval landing ship temporarily acting a ferry, (link in Russian). TASS reports more traffic jams (in Russian), on both sides, after the shooting down of a cruise missile in the Kerch area by Russian air Defence forces around 12 PM local time on Sunday.
Using a Russian Navy vessel for transport of civilian vehicles in an area of heightened and persistent dangers, is on one hand a short-sighted, short-term stopgap measure, which in itself is subject to risks. Yet, there is also the highly worrying issue of mass gatherings of civilians, which also be could under the threat of attack.
The conundrum in trying to keep life as 'normal', in the face of a expanding conflict, now that ATACMS are being included into the Ukrainian arsenal of strike missiles, is getting thornier by the week. The issue of maintaining a significant tourism flow in the face of adversity, is going to prove increasingly problematic for the Russian authorities. Overcoming the risks requires more than taking stop-gap measures for some days in the year.
Damned if you, damned if you don't.