Flights along the Russian borders
Updated 29 December
Almost that time of the year to look back on the statistics on intelligence-gathering flights by NATO member states, notably the U.S. as well as Sweden.
A full brief will be provided when all of the December figures are available, so this is a teaser to whet your appetite, I will update it as the information becomes available.
The data is regularly provided by the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper and needs to be viewed together in the wider context of other military flights, including those U.S. bomber flights, as mentioned by the Russian Ministry of Defence. The Russian MoD noted that in November alone, “during the U.S. Global Thunder strategic force exercise, 10 strategic bombers practiced the scenario of using nuclear weapons against Russia practically simultaneously from the" west and east, as close as 20km from Russia's borders.
No further breakdown of flights by region is available other than for the Black Sea region, although, I used to do this but just too time consuming research in return for very little interest, (previous reports on February 2021 and the last Russian build-up in spring 2021).
I've noticed that there has an uptick in US Navy P-8 & Rivet-Joint flights from Iceland and the UK in the last couple of months. These aircraft are likely going on missions to the Barents, (e.g. latest reported flight on Twitter shown below) and the North Atlantic, as well as keeping tabs on Zircon missile tests in the Russian Barents region.
08:35 мск.
Направился в Баренцево море. pic.twitter.com/CsVs0ffb6M
- PlaneRadar (@ua4wiy_) December 21, 2021
A couple of examples of intelligence/surveillance flights are occasionally reported in Russian media:
- 10 Nov - US E-8C surveillance aircraft in the Black Sea region along with a Russian MoD briefing on the activities;
But such flights never appear in any Western media outlets, (just the Russian bomber flights), so there is little awareness of the frequency and regularity of NATO and US flights off Russia in the public domain.
Intelligence-gathering flights along Russian borders are routinely tracked on a daily basis and duly reported on social media channels, mostly covering the Black and Baltic Seas regions.
It is that time of the year, when the authorities release information as part of the review for 2021. Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin spoke about events that took place in the Black Sea Region, making reference to HMS Defender's incursion and also ISR flights carried out.
The intensity of reconnaissance flights in the Black Sea region has grown by 60% in contrast to 2020. The number of sorties increased from 436 to 710.
Source: TASS
Reporting of NATO and U.S. ISR flights data and events is provided by Russian MoD officials several times during the year. Specific figures on the Black Sea region are released relating to the tracking of aircraft and also ship activities in the region. The graph below shows an marked increase in ISR flights carried out by the U.S. and NATO members in the region.
Recently, the Ukrainian Prime Minister has asked for more support from NATO, “In the same way, a very strong signal would be the increase of intelligence and reconnaissance flights across the Russian border, in particular in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.”
Yet, given the continued frequency of such flights, month after month, every year for a number of years, does not solely suggest that it is just the US and NATO trying to understand size and purpose of reported Russian military build-up near to Ukraine. The graph below shows the overall situation since 2020.
NATO has just released on 28 December its own figures for intercepts carried out in 2021, a total of around 370 times, "mostly to check aircraft flying unannounced near Allied airspace" . 290 of which were reported to be in response to Russian military flights, (transport, fighters, bombers included). Most of the intercepts carried out took place in the Baltic Sea region, so essentially most of those 290 flights would have military aircraft going to and from Kaliningrad. One point to note is that "very few intercepted flights entered [NATO] Allied airspace." NATO and U.S. ISR flights similarly stayed out of Russian airspace.
290 Russian military flights (all types) as stated by NATO for 2021, as compared to 710 ISR flights reported by the Russian MoD for just the Black Sea Region. Quite a difference and a noticeable one too. For a comparison, in 2020, NATO stated that fighter aircraft were scrambled around 350 times in response to Russian aircraft. Quite a difference and a noticeable one too. The way the NATO press release information will be reported in the Western MSM will be radically different to how similar data would have been reported if the Russian MoD data did ever get a mention.