The Sino Menace continues
I just happened across another article on China's arms buildup.
I have been convinced for the last several years of attention to China's behavior that we will be at war with them in another ten or twenty years. It is only a matter of time.
The History
They consider Taiwan to be a state of China -- like Hawaii or Alaska -- but in rebellion against the Communist government. When the Maoists took over, after WW2, and established Communism, the Nationalist government went into exile on the island and established an independent democracy.
In order to maintain the peace, the US has for decades maintained the policy of "One nation, two governments"... which doesn't make sense at all, but it has maintained the patina of peace, while they make threats, and we (not so covertly) sell weapons to Taiwan and privately pledge our support for the free Democratic government. They posture. They intimidate. They perform missile tests, lobbing rockets over Taiwan's airspace to land in the Pacific. And they repeatedly warn us that any interference in their "internal affairs" will result in war.
What They're Doing
During the Clinton years, Chinese agents stole several secrets from our aresenal. Nuclear systems, guidance systems, et cetera. The investigations curiously didn't go anywhere. And Bill Clinton illegally took campaign contributions from the Army of China. Yeah, you heard me. This isn't a crackpot theory, it's real. The bastage shouldn't have been impeached for getting favors from Monica; he should have been challenged for treason.
The Chinese are modernizing. Reducing the size of their standing army, and redirecting the funds into newer, better weapons. Technology was formerly our only advantage against their numbers! And, they have been building themselves a Navy, so that they will finally be capable of crossing the sea to invade and occupy Taiwan.
And that's not all. China is taking the long view. A corporation owned by their army has been bidding for the management contract on the Panama Canal, which would give them a significant strategic advantage. We and other nations could be forced to move any carrier task-forces and troop-ships from the Atlantic the long way around the world to reinforce ourselves and our allies.
The Chinese are advancing their space program, with plans to land on the Moon in the next decade or so. The new technologies they are developing will also allow them to deploy space-based weapons if they want. It's not so far-fetched... we could do it too, if we had a reason. And if we didn't have a treaty to obey. But the Chinese are notorious for not honoring treaties. They violate patents on a daily basis, adopting any invention they can get their hands on. And worse, while we and Russia are reducing our nuclear arsenals, theirs is expanding.
The Balance of Power: Other Nations
In response to China, and to the threat of North Korea as well, Japan has quietly revised the "defense only" policy of its military. There are rumors that they are building the Bomb. I don't worry about Japan much - they are our #1 ally in the region - but this entire situation spells B-A-D.
This isn't just about Taiwan, and our commitment to supporting free nations aroudn the world. I don't believe China will stop with Taiwan. I believe they are becoming the new imperialists. Japan would be an awful pretty new territory, to add to their manufacturing, research and defensive capabilities. China still holds a pretty hefty grudge against Japan for the deprivations of WW2. And anything China does, North Korea will go along with. We would be fighting a war on at least two fronts. Possibly three... India is a wild-card. We were formerly very good buddies with India, until we got real buddy-buddy with Pakistan after 9/11. India is another rapidly modernizing nation. They also have a space program of their own, and an improving military. India and China together could be to the 21st Century what the USA was to the 20th Century: the de facto dominating nations of the world. India could go either way. India could be nervous about a stronger China... and it could oppose China, or it could align itself with them.
Where Are We?
The US has had a virtual hegemony since World War 2... other nations raptly watch our Presidential elections, because our President affects their nations much more than their own. Acquaintances of mine in Europe, Australia and South America have admitted this openly. The United Nations is a farce. The world is our pseudo-empire. But all empires fall, eventually. And we are in a technological, educational and social decline, while other nations are rising. And unless we begin to take measures to improve our situation, we will quickly become like France and Great Britain. Formerly great powers, holding on to residual control over some matters, but without the muscle to back our words. The world is just as dangerous as it has ever been, and we must start preparing now if we are going to maintain our place in it. Right now is like the US in the 1930s. A very few of us saw where Germany was going. We began preparing for the coming war as best we can, but it still took until 1942 when we were anywhere ready to deal with it. But at least we did... deal with it.
I hope we'll be ready when things heat up in Asia. But I frustratingly don't expect it. Like with 9/11, we tend to be more reactive than proactive nowadays.
Pentagon warns over China buildup
Pace and scope of modernization surprises analysts, report says
From Mike Mount
CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- China's rapid military buildup could throw off the balance of power in Asia and threaten other countries in the region, according to a Pentagon report on China's military power.
The Pentagon's annual report to Congress says the country's consistent defense spending on aircraft, missiles and ships means China is ever closer to a longer-range military reach.
"Several aspects of China's military development have surprised U.S. analysts, including the pace and scope of its strategic forces modernization," the report says. "China's military expansion is already such as to alter regional military balances." (Watch the Pentagon cast a wary eye on China's buildup -- 2:18)
While China has been expanding its reach with conventional weapons, the country has also improved its nuclear capability with more and improved ballistic missiles.
The report stresses that the country's intention to use them only for defensive purposes has not changed, but it is both "qualitatively and quantitatively" improving its long-range nuclear missile force.
The "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2006," report also highlights China's immediate focus on planning for "Taiwan Strait contingencies," including the possibility of U.S. intervention.
Taiwan, backed by the United States as its main arms supplier, has a limited Chinese rule. China has long considered the island off its coast to be part of its territory.
The United States has said it would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China, and China has said it would invade if the country officially declared its independence.
The 2006 report says that by late 2005, China had deployed some 710-790 mobile short-range ballistic missiles to garrisons opposite Taiwan, and deployment continues to expand at an average rate of about 100 missiles per year.
China has deployed 400,000 ground-force personnel to the three military regions opposite Taiwan, an increase of 25,000 from last year, according to the report.
It has been upgrading these units with tanks, armored personnel carriers, and a substantial increase in the amount of artillery pieces, the report states.
The country has also increased and upgraded its air forces with planes that can fly faster and farther, totaling about 700 aircraft in range of Taiwan, it says.
China's move to increase its influence over Taiwan and the region has been costly. It publicly says its defense budget for 2006 is up 15 percent from last year, spending about $35 billion.
The Pentagon report says the actual budget is between $70 billion and $105 billion.
This compares with the U.S. military budget which topped $400 billion for 2005.
I have been convinced for the last several years of attention to China's behavior that we will be at war with them in another ten or twenty years. It is only a matter of time.
The History
They consider Taiwan to be a state of China -- like Hawaii or Alaska -- but in rebellion against the Communist government. When the Maoists took over, after WW2, and established Communism, the Nationalist government went into exile on the island and established an independent democracy.
In order to maintain the peace, the US has for decades maintained the policy of "One nation, two governments"... which doesn't make sense at all, but it has maintained the patina of peace, while they make threats, and we (not so covertly) sell weapons to Taiwan and privately pledge our support for the free Democratic government. They posture. They intimidate. They perform missile tests, lobbing rockets over Taiwan's airspace to land in the Pacific. And they repeatedly warn us that any interference in their "internal affairs" will result in war.
What They're Doing
During the Clinton years, Chinese agents stole several secrets from our aresenal. Nuclear systems, guidance systems, et cetera. The investigations curiously didn't go anywhere. And Bill Clinton illegally took campaign contributions from the Army of China. Yeah, you heard me. This isn't a crackpot theory, it's real. The bastage shouldn't have been impeached for getting favors from Monica; he should have been challenged for treason.
The Chinese are modernizing. Reducing the size of their standing army, and redirecting the funds into newer, better weapons. Technology was formerly our only advantage against their numbers! And, they have been building themselves a Navy, so that they will finally be capable of crossing the sea to invade and occupy Taiwan.
And that's not all. China is taking the long view. A corporation owned by their army has been bidding for the management contract on the Panama Canal, which would give them a significant strategic advantage. We and other nations could be forced to move any carrier task-forces and troop-ships from the Atlantic the long way around the world to reinforce ourselves and our allies.
The Chinese are advancing their space program, with plans to land on the Moon in the next decade or so. The new technologies they are developing will also allow them to deploy space-based weapons if they want. It's not so far-fetched... we could do it too, if we had a reason. And if we didn't have a treaty to obey. But the Chinese are notorious for not honoring treaties. They violate patents on a daily basis, adopting any invention they can get their hands on. And worse, while we and Russia are reducing our nuclear arsenals, theirs is expanding.
The Balance of Power: Other Nations
In response to China, and to the threat of North Korea as well, Japan has quietly revised the "defense only" policy of its military. There are rumors that they are building the Bomb. I don't worry about Japan much - they are our #1 ally in the region - but this entire situation spells B-A-D.
This isn't just about Taiwan, and our commitment to supporting free nations aroudn the world. I don't believe China will stop with Taiwan. I believe they are becoming the new imperialists. Japan would be an awful pretty new territory, to add to their manufacturing, research and defensive capabilities. China still holds a pretty hefty grudge against Japan for the deprivations of WW2. And anything China does, North Korea will go along with. We would be fighting a war on at least two fronts. Possibly three... India is a wild-card. We were formerly very good buddies with India, until we got real buddy-buddy with Pakistan after 9/11. India is another rapidly modernizing nation. They also have a space program of their own, and an improving military. India and China together could be to the 21st Century what the USA was to the 20th Century: the de facto dominating nations of the world. India could go either way. India could be nervous about a stronger China... and it could oppose China, or it could align itself with them.
Where Are We?
The US has had a virtual hegemony since World War 2... other nations raptly watch our Presidential elections, because our President affects their nations much more than their own. Acquaintances of mine in Europe, Australia and South America have admitted this openly. The United Nations is a farce. The world is our pseudo-empire. But all empires fall, eventually. And we are in a technological, educational and social decline, while other nations are rising. And unless we begin to take measures to improve our situation, we will quickly become like France and Great Britain. Formerly great powers, holding on to residual control over some matters, but without the muscle to back our words. The world is just as dangerous as it has ever been, and we must start preparing now if we are going to maintain our place in it. Right now is like the US in the 1930s. A very few of us saw where Germany was going. We began preparing for the coming war as best we can, but it still took until 1942 when we were anywhere ready to deal with it. But at least we did... deal with it.
I hope we'll be ready when things heat up in Asia. But I frustratingly don't expect it. Like with 9/11, we tend to be more reactive than proactive nowadays.
Pentagon warns over China buildup
Pace and scope of modernization surprises analysts, report says
From Mike Mount
CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- China's rapid military buildup could throw off the balance of power in Asia and threaten other countries in the region, according to a Pentagon report on China's military power.
The Pentagon's annual report to Congress says the country's consistent defense spending on aircraft, missiles and ships means China is ever closer to a longer-range military reach.
"Several aspects of China's military development have surprised U.S. analysts, including the pace and scope of its strategic forces modernization," the report says. "China's military expansion is already such as to alter regional military balances." (Watch the Pentagon cast a wary eye on China's buildup -- 2:18)
While China has been expanding its reach with conventional weapons, the country has also improved its nuclear capability with more and improved ballistic missiles.
The report stresses that the country's intention to use them only for defensive purposes has not changed, but it is both "qualitatively and quantitatively" improving its long-range nuclear missile force.
The "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2006," report also highlights China's immediate focus on planning for "Taiwan Strait contingencies," including the possibility of U.S. intervention.
Taiwan, backed by the United States as its main arms supplier, has a limited Chinese rule. China has long considered the island off its coast to be part of its territory.
The United States has said it would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China, and China has said it would invade if the country officially declared its independence.
The 2006 report says that by late 2005, China had deployed some 710-790 mobile short-range ballistic missiles to garrisons opposite Taiwan, and deployment continues to expand at an average rate of about 100 missiles per year.
China has deployed 400,000 ground-force personnel to the three military regions opposite Taiwan, an increase of 25,000 from last year, according to the report.
It has been upgrading these units with tanks, armored personnel carriers, and a substantial increase in the amount of artillery pieces, the report states.
The country has also increased and upgraded its air forces with planes that can fly faster and farther, totaling about 700 aircraft in range of Taiwan, it says.
China's move to increase its influence over Taiwan and the region has been costly. It publicly says its defense budget for 2006 is up 15 percent from last year, spending about $35 billion.
The Pentagon report says the actual budget is between $70 billion and $105 billion.
This compares with the U.S. military budget which topped $400 billion for 2005.