Tony Time! (Part 1)
So in just over 2 weeks, the 2009 Tony Awards will be handed out. And once again, I'm going to voice my two cents on who will win. Unlike last year, I haven't seen *any* of the nomined shows (unless you count the British productions of "Billy Elliot" and "Mary Stuart," which did import a couple of their leads), but I'm making predictions anyway. This will prove that the Tony Awards, like most major awards, are as much political as they are merit based, and that you don't actually have to know what you're talking about to guess who's going home a winner.
Let's start with the big categories:
BEST MUSICAL
Nominees: Billy Elliot, Next to Normal, Shrek the Musical, Rock of Ages
Predicted Winner: Billy Elliot
First off, we can rule out Rock of Ages. The fact a ridiculous jukebox musical starring a mildly-talented American Idol castoff got one of the four slots should be considered a win (and an interesting roundabout judgement on 9 to 5, the show everyone expected to be nominated in its place). Shrek the Musical may well be a very entertaining show, but it is also the "kiddie" show of the group and will be frowned upon by the self-absorbed "serious" Tony voters. This is a two horse race between Billy Elliot (which really was amazing when I saw it in London 3 years ago) and Next to Normal (which is also supposed to be incredible). And once again, politics and marketing will keep the artsy show (re: Next to Normal) from taking the big prize. I don't mean that as a slight, because I really did love Billy Elliot and recommend everyone go see it. And let's just be glad that in a year where the economy murdered more shows than a serial killer, we produced two shows that seem truly worthy of Broadway's highest honor.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
Nominees: Guys and Dolls, Hair, Pal Joey, West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Hair
Let's not kid ourselves, this isn't even really a contest. Pal Joey closed many moons ago, which never helps a show. It would have to be the best thing since sliced bread for people's memories of it to cause them to vote for it over it's high profile and more recent competition. Everyone loves Guys and Dolls, but not many people seem to love this new production. Reviews seemed to range from "polite" to "harsh" (and I think the "polite" ones were from people, like me, who don't want to admit that Guys and Dolls could be bad). West Side Story has more going for it: everyone loves the show, agrees it is "important"/a landmark in musical theatre, and director Aurther Laurents still has a lot of goodwill left over from his revival of Gypsy last year. And like last year, he's going to lose to a show that opened more recently to unanimous raves. It doesn't help that the reviews for West Side weren't as gushing as the Gyspy reviews. So those hippies in Hair can dance their way to the bank with a Tony Award to help boost already strong ticket sales.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Billy Elliot, Next to Normal, Shrek the Musical, [title of show]
Predicted Winner: Next to Normal
As in many previous years, I think the writing categories are where artsy Next to Normal stands the best chance of a win (that and Leading Actress, but we'll get to that later). Again, having opened and closed so long ago is really going to hurt [title of show]'s chances. And frankly, from what I can tell from the cast recording, the show thinks it is cleverer than it actually is. That kind of wink-wink-nudge-nudge humor doesn't work as well on Broadway as it does Off-Broadway. Being the "kiddie" musical and lacking serious, dramatic subject matter isn't going to help Shrek, but librettist David Lindsay-Abaire has a Pulitizer, so I doubt he'll be too upset to lose. I think it is going to be a very close race between Billy Elliot and Next to Normal, as both have a good amount of dramatic material to work with. But it's pretty hard to beat bipolar, dysfunctional families when it comes to self-important industry awards, so Next to Normal will win.
BEST SCORE
Nominees: Billy Elliot, Next to Normal, 9 to 5, Shrek the Musical
Predicted Winner: Billy Elliot
I'm going to rule Shrek out, because I do not at all care for what I've heard of the score. Composer Jeanine Tesori still hasn't figured out how to write a wholely palpable score (her most consistant work is probably Millie, which is still somewhat bland, and half of it she didn't even write). A lot of people are in love with the Next to Normal score, but I just can't get into what I've heard, either. Of course, I haven't listened to the whole thing or seen it in context, which could change my opinion. I wouldn't rule out 9 to 5, because no one should underestimate the widespread appeal of Dolly Parton, and if there's a strong contigent of Tony voters who are upset the show wasn't nominated more, they will want it to get some kind of honor. But I think Elton John will take home his second Tony for what I think is his best theatrical score to date.
Well, that's all I have time for right now. Next time I'll post my thoughts on the musical acting categories (and this year I actually think the men are more competitive than the women).
Sidenote: I *highly* recommend the cast recording of the Hair revival that was just released on iTunes today. It is astounding from end to end. And Sasha Allen has a belt that can reach the high heavens.
-Jared W. Wietbrock