Tony Tony Tony!
So the nominations for the 2008 Tony Awards have been announced, and I have once again decided to weigh in with my two cents even though I haven't seen most of the shows.
First off, I am a little surprised (although not upset) by the exclusion of Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from the nominations. I would have thought James Earl Jones especially would have at least been nominated for his work. Not that a Tony would really help or hurt the show, as the producers announced today that they have officially made a profit from the production in just 12 short weeks. I am also surprised but glad to see that The Little Mermaid and Young Frankstein have been all but overlooked for award nominations. Now, everything I've heard is that those two shows are awful, but let's be really real: the Tony is often given to shows that the voters feel could be popular on the road. Also, this is a rather weak season (in my opinion) for musicals, so their competition wasn't that fierce.
Anyway, on to my predictions!
Best Musical
I predict that In the Heights will win this one. It has the most nominations of any show, which is always a good sign. It got fairly positive reviews, and I think it has the potential to be popular on tour (because I really do think that influences voting). I haven't heard much about Cry-Baby, which means it is likely mediocre, and I think Passing Strange is too artsy and out there to win the Best Musical Award. Xanadu is probably the closest competition, and the Musical categories are one of the few places frothy comedies have a chance to at the gold. But I'm sticking with my prediction of In the Heights.
Best Play
This category is so one sided it's not even a real contest. August: Osage County will and should win. It already has the Pulitzer Prize, and although that is no guarantee it's a damn good sign. I saw the show and it is quite simply one of the most amazing things I've ever seen. The writing is tight, the writing phenomenal, and it's three and a half hour runtime passes in the blink of an eye. I left the theatre absolutely giddy after seeing this play, and so has everyone else I talked to. And the critics all wrote raves about it. If you're going to bet money on anything this year, bet the August wins Best Play. The only problem will be finding someone to bet against you.
Best Musical Revival
If you had told me two months ago that South Pacific would be one of the must see shows of the season, I would have laughed in your face. But it is apparently just that, and despite strong competition in this category (it's the closest race of the year, in my opinion), I think South Pacific will win the trophy on June 15. We can discount Grease from the race, as it is clearly only there to round out the category, and there's no way snobby theatre people are going to vote for a show that cast its leads by a reality television competition. Sunday has the advantage of being a good production of a Sondheim show (which people love more and more these days), but then everyone knew it would be good as it was an import from Britain (and the last time Sondheim was imported from Britain, it didn't win, a la the Sweeney revival). I think the race is really between Gypsy and South Pacific, as they both had the advantage of surprising reviewers despite being well known shows. Once you get past the buzz on Patti LuPone, most people comment how the Gypsy revival has much more drama than they expected, but the fact the show was on Broadway five years ago will hurt it. Meanwhile, it's been over 50 years since South Pacific has been on Broadway, and quite frankly most people weren't sure if the show would have aged well. Apparently it did, and supposedly even the harshest critics couldn't find anything wrong with the production. So I'm betting South Pacific wins and runs for a few years at least.
Best Play Revival
This category is trickier to call. I don't think The Homecoming or Les Liasons Dangereueses will win, as the reviews for them were general positive but not raves. I think it will be between Boeing Boeing, a British farce which is apparently much funnier than anyone remembered, and Macbeth. Interestingly enough, I believe both of these productions are imported from England. In the end, I think Macbeth might win, as several of the reviews for Boeing Boeing seemed to think the production was funnier than the actual script. But then again, voters might be off-put by the edgey take on Shakespeare, so who knows?
Lead Actor, Musical
I think this will be Paulo Szot from South Pacific, as he has already won several awards for his work in that show. I think his closest competition will be Daniel Evans' George from Sunday, as that role is particularly meaty and challenging from an acting standpoint, and Evans by all accounts handles it beautifully. Lin-Manuel Miranda from In the Heights will probably fall victim to being inexperienced (the comittee will find his work impressive for a newcomer, but not refined enough to win), and Stew (who co-wrote Passing Strange) is saddled with a show that I think is too out there for too many people to win. As A Catered Affiar was completely overlooked for any of the writing awards, I suspect Tom Wopat will lose due to having a character that isn't as well written as some of the others.
Lead Actress, Musical
Again, a strong category, but let's not kid ourselves: this is Patti's award to lose. I was priviledged enough to see her Rose the day before opening and it is incredible. She does so much with it the mind boggles. She plays up the comedy (and even finds time to be a little sexy), but when it's time for the drama she attacks the show and doesn't let go. After all these years belting like a madwoman her voice is still spectacular, and her "Rose's Turn" is positively thrilling (and will probably be performed on the Tonys). She inhabits a beast of a role with ease, and after warming up in Sweeney I think it is safe to call Gyspy her Broadway comeback. All those other ladies will have to be satisfied with the nomination, because unless Patti starts missing tons of performances she's going to win.
Lead Actor, Play
I don't really know anything about this award, so this is purely a guess, but I say Lawrence Fishburne. And here's why: the reviews for Thurgood said that the show was so-so, but his performance made it worth seeing, and as it is a one man show he surely has plenty of opportunity to show his versatility. I think Patrick Stewart is also a contender, but I think his greatest obstacle is the fact that he's Patrick Stewart. People expect him to be good, so he'll have to be sensational to convince the voters he deserves more recognition. The problem with being so consistantly good is that after a while it starts to lose its affect.
Lead Actress, Play
Like the Best Musical Actress award, I think this is a year when some very desrving women will lose to someone who is even more incredible. Deanna Dunagan has the flashiest and juiciest role in the hottest play in town, and her pill popping, acid-toungued Violet is such an overwhelming presence that it sticks with you long after the curtain falls (I can say this with confidence, having been lucky enough to her in August: Osage County). She is utterly convincing in the role, and despite being a monster of a mother, gets enough comedy that you don't despise her, and the play's finale actually manages to make you feel sorry for her despite her bitchiness. Her presence fills the theatre (and I was in the back row), and Dunagan gives Violet the kind of distinctive, meaning-filled mannerisms that fans of technical acting (read: awards voters) eat up like candy. The dark horse in this category is likely Dunagan's costar Amy Morton, who is equally compelling in a more thankless role. Morton also has the advantage of getting to chart an emotional journey, whereas Dunagan's Violet remains unchanged through the course of the evening (although your opinion of her changes as you learn more about her). But Dunagan's gonna win.
I really don't know enough about the other categories to make any kind of informed guess, so I won't. However, I suspect no matter who wins the writing awards for musical, 2008 will be a year where we look back and think, "Gee, there must not have been much competition that year." Much the way I look back at 1986 and go, "Really? Drood was the best written show that came out that year? What a joke." (For those of you that don't know, Drood won best score and best book, despite both being a hot mess. And that's not a diss against Catawba's production, which I enjoyed; but that show is a mess.)
First off, I am a little surprised (although not upset) by the exclusion of Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from the nominations. I would have thought James Earl Jones especially would have at least been nominated for his work. Not that a Tony would really help or hurt the show, as the producers announced today that they have officially made a profit from the production in just 12 short weeks. I am also surprised but glad to see that The Little Mermaid and Young Frankstein have been all but overlooked for award nominations. Now, everything I've heard is that those two shows are awful, but let's be really real: the Tony is often given to shows that the voters feel could be popular on the road. Also, this is a rather weak season (in my opinion) for musicals, so their competition wasn't that fierce.
Anyway, on to my predictions!
Best Musical
I predict that In the Heights will win this one. It has the most nominations of any show, which is always a good sign. It got fairly positive reviews, and I think it has the potential to be popular on tour (because I really do think that influences voting). I haven't heard much about Cry-Baby, which means it is likely mediocre, and I think Passing Strange is too artsy and out there to win the Best Musical Award. Xanadu is probably the closest competition, and the Musical categories are one of the few places frothy comedies have a chance to at the gold. But I'm sticking with my prediction of In the Heights.
Best Play
This category is so one sided it's not even a real contest. August: Osage County will and should win. It already has the Pulitzer Prize, and although that is no guarantee it's a damn good sign. I saw the show and it is quite simply one of the most amazing things I've ever seen. The writing is tight, the writing phenomenal, and it's three and a half hour runtime passes in the blink of an eye. I left the theatre absolutely giddy after seeing this play, and so has everyone else I talked to. And the critics all wrote raves about it. If you're going to bet money on anything this year, bet the August wins Best Play. The only problem will be finding someone to bet against you.
Best Musical Revival
If you had told me two months ago that South Pacific would be one of the must see shows of the season, I would have laughed in your face. But it is apparently just that, and despite strong competition in this category (it's the closest race of the year, in my opinion), I think South Pacific will win the trophy on June 15. We can discount Grease from the race, as it is clearly only there to round out the category, and there's no way snobby theatre people are going to vote for a show that cast its leads by a reality television competition. Sunday has the advantage of being a good production of a Sondheim show (which people love more and more these days), but then everyone knew it would be good as it was an import from Britain (and the last time Sondheim was imported from Britain, it didn't win, a la the Sweeney revival). I think the race is really between Gypsy and South Pacific, as they both had the advantage of surprising reviewers despite being well known shows. Once you get past the buzz on Patti LuPone, most people comment how the Gypsy revival has much more drama than they expected, but the fact the show was on Broadway five years ago will hurt it. Meanwhile, it's been over 50 years since South Pacific has been on Broadway, and quite frankly most people weren't sure if the show would have aged well. Apparently it did, and supposedly even the harshest critics couldn't find anything wrong with the production. So I'm betting South Pacific wins and runs for a few years at least.
Best Play Revival
This category is trickier to call. I don't think The Homecoming or Les Liasons Dangereueses will win, as the reviews for them were general positive but not raves. I think it will be between Boeing Boeing, a British farce which is apparently much funnier than anyone remembered, and Macbeth. Interestingly enough, I believe both of these productions are imported from England. In the end, I think Macbeth might win, as several of the reviews for Boeing Boeing seemed to think the production was funnier than the actual script. But then again, voters might be off-put by the edgey take on Shakespeare, so who knows?
Lead Actor, Musical
I think this will be Paulo Szot from South Pacific, as he has already won several awards for his work in that show. I think his closest competition will be Daniel Evans' George from Sunday, as that role is particularly meaty and challenging from an acting standpoint, and Evans by all accounts handles it beautifully. Lin-Manuel Miranda from In the Heights will probably fall victim to being inexperienced (the comittee will find his work impressive for a newcomer, but not refined enough to win), and Stew (who co-wrote Passing Strange) is saddled with a show that I think is too out there for too many people to win. As A Catered Affiar was completely overlooked for any of the writing awards, I suspect Tom Wopat will lose due to having a character that isn't as well written as some of the others.
Lead Actress, Musical
Again, a strong category, but let's not kid ourselves: this is Patti's award to lose. I was priviledged enough to see her Rose the day before opening and it is incredible. She does so much with it the mind boggles. She plays up the comedy (and even finds time to be a little sexy), but when it's time for the drama she attacks the show and doesn't let go. After all these years belting like a madwoman her voice is still spectacular, and her "Rose's Turn" is positively thrilling (and will probably be performed on the Tonys). She inhabits a beast of a role with ease, and after warming up in Sweeney I think it is safe to call Gyspy her Broadway comeback. All those other ladies will have to be satisfied with the nomination, because unless Patti starts missing tons of performances she's going to win.
Lead Actor, Play
I don't really know anything about this award, so this is purely a guess, but I say Lawrence Fishburne. And here's why: the reviews for Thurgood said that the show was so-so, but his performance made it worth seeing, and as it is a one man show he surely has plenty of opportunity to show his versatility. I think Patrick Stewart is also a contender, but I think his greatest obstacle is the fact that he's Patrick Stewart. People expect him to be good, so he'll have to be sensational to convince the voters he deserves more recognition. The problem with being so consistantly good is that after a while it starts to lose its affect.
Lead Actress, Play
Like the Best Musical Actress award, I think this is a year when some very desrving women will lose to someone who is even more incredible. Deanna Dunagan has the flashiest and juiciest role in the hottest play in town, and her pill popping, acid-toungued Violet is such an overwhelming presence that it sticks with you long after the curtain falls (I can say this with confidence, having been lucky enough to her in August: Osage County). She is utterly convincing in the role, and despite being a monster of a mother, gets enough comedy that you don't despise her, and the play's finale actually manages to make you feel sorry for her despite her bitchiness. Her presence fills the theatre (and I was in the back row), and Dunagan gives Violet the kind of distinctive, meaning-filled mannerisms that fans of technical acting (read: awards voters) eat up like candy. The dark horse in this category is likely Dunagan's costar Amy Morton, who is equally compelling in a more thankless role. Morton also has the advantage of getting to chart an emotional journey, whereas Dunagan's Violet remains unchanged through the course of the evening (although your opinion of her changes as you learn more about her). But Dunagan's gonna win.
I really don't know enough about the other categories to make any kind of informed guess, so I won't. However, I suspect no matter who wins the writing awards for musical, 2008 will be a year where we look back and think, "Gee, there must not have been much competition that year." Much the way I look back at 1986 and go, "Really? Drood was the best written show that came out that year? What a joke." (For those of you that don't know, Drood won best score and best book, despite both being a hot mess. And that's not a diss against Catawba's production, which I enjoyed; but that show is a mess.)