Because I'm SOOO Qualified...
...I'm going to subject you all to my gut-reaction predictions about who will win the Tonys. (Which is really quite ridiculous, because the only show that opened this year that I've actually seen is Chorus Line, and although I didn't hate it, I think those who saw it with me will agree that it probably shouldn't win anything.)
So hear we go:
BEST MUSICAL nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Mary Poppins, Spring Awakening
I think Spring Awakening is a pretty safe bet on this one. The only other show that got equally escatic reviews was Grey Gardens, but that opened first and has since lost a lot of its buzz, while Spring Awakening is still the talk of the town. Now, occassionally this award goes to the show that has the best chance of making lots of money on tour. Which I think still means Spring Awakening, since it has already announced a national tour and because the other money-maker on the list, Mary Poppins, will make millions of dollars with or without any awards, much like a certain show about witches that opened a few years back.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL nominees: 110 in the Shade, The Apple Tree, A Chorus Line, Company
Company. Easily. All the other shows got mixed reviews, and Apple Tree closed months ago, which pretty much kills any chance it has of winning. Company is also a more respected script than any of the others, with the exception of Chorus Line (which is the only show I have seen, and if it's the Best Revival this year, that's kind of sad). Plus, I think some Tony voters will feel guilty for not giving the prize to John Doyle's production of Sweeney Todd last year.
BEST PLAY nominees: The Coast of Utopia, Frost/Nixon, The Little Dog Laughed, Radio Golf
I don't really know anything about these plays, but I'm gonna give you my two cents anyway. I think Utopia will win, for its sheer size if nothing else (it's a 3-part, 8 hour epic, for Christ's sake!). Although people might feel nostalgic and give the award to Radio Golf as a way to honor the deceased August Wilson's entire body of work (because two Pulitzer's isn't enough).
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY nominees: Inherit the Wind, Journey's End, Talk Radio, Translations
I choose to not make a prediction because I know next to nothing about any of these plays, other than the fact that I had to read Inherit the Wind in 10th grade and hated it. So hopefully it won't win, because I don't think it deserved to be revived in the first place.
BEST SCORE nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Legally Blonde, Spring Awakening
This one's tougher for me to call. I doubt it will be Legally Blonde, and I don't think people miss Frank Ebb enough to give Curtains a Tony Award out of nostalgia. I'm going to go with Spring Awakening, because I think its music is more tuneful than Grey Gardens.
BEST BOOK OF A MUISCAL nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Legally Blonde, Spring Awakening
Well, Rubert Holmes wrote the book for Curtains, and if Edwin Drood is anything to go by that means its a hot mess. Then again, he won a Tony for Drood, so what do I know? I think, like most musical categories this year, this is going to come down to a race between Grey Gardens and Spring Awakening. And this time, I think Grey Gardens might actually win, as a way of acknowledging the show and also because it seems like the characters in Grey Gardens are treated in a more complex and adult way. Tony voters tend to like cerebral librettos these days, even if they do have gaping plot holes (Light in the Piazza, I'm looking at you).
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL nominees: Michael Cerveris in LoveMusik, Raul Esparza in Company, Jonathan Groff in Spring Awakening, Gavin Lee in Mary Poppins, David Hyde Pierce in Curtains
I think this category is a tough call. There's a lot of good competition in it. Raul Esparza has a really juicy role as Bobby in Company, and apparently his interpretation is one of the best there's ever been. Michael Cerveris has been nominated for the past few years, plus I'm sure playing Kurt Weill gives him a lot of depth to work with. I doubt Gavin Lee or David Hyde Pierce have much of a shot, although Pierce could be something of a dark horse. I think Jonathan Groff's age will both help and hurt him; help, because he's obviously very talented for someone so young, and hurt because I'm sure the other nominees in the category have a more refined acting technique than Groff's raw talent. In the end, I'm going to guess that Esparza walks off with the trophy come Tony night, although he'll probably give a nod to his competition in his acceptance speech.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL nominees: Laura Bell Bundy in Legally Blonde, Christine Ebersole in Grey Gardens, Audra McDonald in 110 in the Shade, Donna Murphy in LoveMusik, Debra Monk in Curtains
This is another tough category to for me to call. I'm sure all the ladies are deserving in their own ways. I think Laura Bell Bundy and Debra Monk are both actresses who have worked on Broadway fairly steadily and are respected by the theatre community, but I would be surprised if either of them actually won. Christine Ebersole got unanimous raves for her dual roles in Grey Gardens, which makes her a serious contender. Donna Murphy has always been amazing, but having a leading actress Tony already may hurt her (plus, bitch has a habit of missing performances, and you can't win if the Tony voters don't get a chance to see you). As far as I'm concerned Audra McDonald can do no wrong, and the New York press seems to agree with me; they all raved about her in their reviews of 110 in the Shade. I personally want her to win, but she already has four Tonys, and recently Tony voters have tried to spread the wealth when it comes to acting awards. I think it is a race between Ebersole and Audra (she and I are tight like that, so I can use her first name), and in the end I think Ebersole will win because she doesn't have a Tony yet, and playing multiple characters is always impressive to awards voters.
Well, that's all the categories I feel even halfway qualified to talk about. We'll see if I was right come June!
-Jared W. Wietbrock
So hear we go:
BEST MUSICAL nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Mary Poppins, Spring Awakening
I think Spring Awakening is a pretty safe bet on this one. The only other show that got equally escatic reviews was Grey Gardens, but that opened first and has since lost a lot of its buzz, while Spring Awakening is still the talk of the town. Now, occassionally this award goes to the show that has the best chance of making lots of money on tour. Which I think still means Spring Awakening, since it has already announced a national tour and because the other money-maker on the list, Mary Poppins, will make millions of dollars with or without any awards, much like a certain show about witches that opened a few years back.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL nominees: 110 in the Shade, The Apple Tree, A Chorus Line, Company
Company. Easily. All the other shows got mixed reviews, and Apple Tree closed months ago, which pretty much kills any chance it has of winning. Company is also a more respected script than any of the others, with the exception of Chorus Line (which is the only show I have seen, and if it's the Best Revival this year, that's kind of sad). Plus, I think some Tony voters will feel guilty for not giving the prize to John Doyle's production of Sweeney Todd last year.
BEST PLAY nominees: The Coast of Utopia, Frost/Nixon, The Little Dog Laughed, Radio Golf
I don't really know anything about these plays, but I'm gonna give you my two cents anyway. I think Utopia will win, for its sheer size if nothing else (it's a 3-part, 8 hour epic, for Christ's sake!). Although people might feel nostalgic and give the award to Radio Golf as a way to honor the deceased August Wilson's entire body of work (because two Pulitzer's isn't enough).
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY nominees: Inherit the Wind, Journey's End, Talk Radio, Translations
I choose to not make a prediction because I know next to nothing about any of these plays, other than the fact that I had to read Inherit the Wind in 10th grade and hated it. So hopefully it won't win, because I don't think it deserved to be revived in the first place.
BEST SCORE nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Legally Blonde, Spring Awakening
This one's tougher for me to call. I doubt it will be Legally Blonde, and I don't think people miss Frank Ebb enough to give Curtains a Tony Award out of nostalgia. I'm going to go with Spring Awakening, because I think its music is more tuneful than Grey Gardens.
BEST BOOK OF A MUISCAL nominees: Curtains, Grey Gardens, Legally Blonde, Spring Awakening
Well, Rubert Holmes wrote the book for Curtains, and if Edwin Drood is anything to go by that means its a hot mess. Then again, he won a Tony for Drood, so what do I know? I think, like most musical categories this year, this is going to come down to a race between Grey Gardens and Spring Awakening. And this time, I think Grey Gardens might actually win, as a way of acknowledging the show and also because it seems like the characters in Grey Gardens are treated in a more complex and adult way. Tony voters tend to like cerebral librettos these days, even if they do have gaping plot holes (Light in the Piazza, I'm looking at you).
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL nominees: Michael Cerveris in LoveMusik, Raul Esparza in Company, Jonathan Groff in Spring Awakening, Gavin Lee in Mary Poppins, David Hyde Pierce in Curtains
I think this category is a tough call. There's a lot of good competition in it. Raul Esparza has a really juicy role as Bobby in Company, and apparently his interpretation is one of the best there's ever been. Michael Cerveris has been nominated for the past few years, plus I'm sure playing Kurt Weill gives him a lot of depth to work with. I doubt Gavin Lee or David Hyde Pierce have much of a shot, although Pierce could be something of a dark horse. I think Jonathan Groff's age will both help and hurt him; help, because he's obviously very talented for someone so young, and hurt because I'm sure the other nominees in the category have a more refined acting technique than Groff's raw talent. In the end, I'm going to guess that Esparza walks off with the trophy come Tony night, although he'll probably give a nod to his competition in his acceptance speech.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL nominees: Laura Bell Bundy in Legally Blonde, Christine Ebersole in Grey Gardens, Audra McDonald in 110 in the Shade, Donna Murphy in LoveMusik, Debra Monk in Curtains
This is another tough category to for me to call. I'm sure all the ladies are deserving in their own ways. I think Laura Bell Bundy and Debra Monk are both actresses who have worked on Broadway fairly steadily and are respected by the theatre community, but I would be surprised if either of them actually won. Christine Ebersole got unanimous raves for her dual roles in Grey Gardens, which makes her a serious contender. Donna Murphy has always been amazing, but having a leading actress Tony already may hurt her (plus, bitch has a habit of missing performances, and you can't win if the Tony voters don't get a chance to see you). As far as I'm concerned Audra McDonald can do no wrong, and the New York press seems to agree with me; they all raved about her in their reviews of 110 in the Shade. I personally want her to win, but she already has four Tonys, and recently Tony voters have tried to spread the wealth when it comes to acting awards. I think it is a race between Ebersole and Audra (she and I are tight like that, so I can use her first name), and in the end I think Ebersole will win because she doesn't have a Tony yet, and playing multiple characters is always impressive to awards voters.
Well, that's all the categories I feel even halfway qualified to talk about. We'll see if I was right come June!
-Jared W. Wietbrock