Rachel, General Quarters, the Oaks, and the Derby! Oh my!
This weekend looks to be pretty dang awesome! :D
Tomorrow kicks off with the La Troienne at 12:26 CST. Rachel Alexandra is back and will hopefully redeem herself against Zardana. Rachel's been working well at Churchill, well enough that she may finally be fit and ready to go which will be utterly awesome. Fingers crossed for a good race from her.
In the next race, the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, I will have my eyes on an Officer colt named Boys At Tosconova. Gotta keep that MOW sire line alive. :)
The Alysheba is loaded with former Derby horses: Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Bullsbay, Macho Again, Cool Coal Man, and Flying Private. I have no idea who's got the best shot, but it'll be an interesting race all the same. I'd like to see Chocolate Candy get it, I think.
I'll be watching Setsuko in the American Turf. He ought to have been in the Derby as I think he could have been a legitimate contender, but Derby fever has infected the owners of no chance horses like Homeboykris and Backtalk, so they're going and Setsuko isn't. Depending on how things shake out in the next 5 weeks, I wonder if he'll be a Belmont horse. He just might like the distance.
1. It's Tea Time (Dynaformer x Prof. McGonagall, by Storm Cat) The Oaks will be her first start on dirt, but she’s hit the board in all three of her previous starts, including nearly winning the Ashland last out. She is a legitimate threat.
2. Jody Slew (Slew City Slew x Trustbuster, by Housebuster) Probably out of her depth here, especially after a 7th place finish in the Fairgrounds Oaks last out. She got cast a few days before that race, so it's a toss, but I'm not sure how good she is.
3. Quiet Temper (Quiet American x Dead Aim, by Silver Deputy) A consistent runner who nearly always brings home a check. Not sure I see her winning, but she has a chance.
4. Age of Humor (Distorted Humor x Age of Silver, by Silver Deputy) Not quite ready to face the caliber of some of the fillies on this field, though I suspect she’ll get better with age.
5. Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision x Lucky One, by Best of Luck) Not the prettiest pedigree, but she seems to be a very classy closer. Would be undefeated this season except for a bad trip in the Santa Anita Oaks. She’s a legitimate contender and favorite.
6. Beautician (Dehere x Caroni, by Rubiano) Seems to prefer the dirt to polytrack, though I don’t think she’s quite ready for this company. Could be an interesting longshot.
7. Crisp (El Corredor x Cat’s Flair, by Sir Cat) Narrowly won the Santa Anita Oaks last out, coming into this race off an 8 week layoff. She might hit the board, but I’m not expecting a win.
8. Tidal Pool (Yankee Gentleman x Sea Rhythm, by Deputy Minister) Was a good second to Blind Luck last out in the Fantasy. If BL runs into traffic problems, I can see TP picking up a check pretty easily.
9. Bella Diamante (Lost Soldier x Sharon’s Song, by Badger Land) Has never won beyond 6 furlongs, looks to be way out of her depth here.
10. Champagne d'Oro (Medaglia d’Oro x Champagne Glow, by Saratoga Six) Hung on gamely for second behind Quiet Temper last out in the Fair Ground Oaks, but I don’t think she’s quite up to the best in this field.
11. Evening Jewel (Northern Afleet x Jewel of the Night, by Giant’s Causeway) Very consistent and classy filly. Narrowly defeated It’s Tea Time last out in the Ashland. Should be close at the finish.
12. Ailalea (Pulpit x Woodsprite, by Woodman) Would have to improve dramatically to have a shot.
13. Amen Hallelujah (Montbrook x Sara’s Success, by Concordes Tune) A longshot, though she was second to Devil May Care (who is entered in the Derby) last out for whatever that’s worth.
14. Joanie's Catch (First Tour x Caught Speeding, by Saint Ballado) Consistently on the board, but would need to improve to win here.
I like It's Tea Time myself. (Or It's TAY-uh-TIM-ay for my Pratchetty friends.) Fun name, fun pedigree, looked fabulous even when losing last out. She's my pick.
Saturday's big races kick off with more nice fillies in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile and the Humana Distaff. Informed Deciision should pretty much be a lock in that one. Munnings, Warrior's Reward, and Kensei all face off in the Churchill Downs Stakes. And General Quarters will face Court Vision and Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve. Not sure that he can win it, but I'm happy just to see him again. He's a nice horse, and being a pretty grey doesn't hurt.
1. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike x Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) A game horse and a good horse, but not a brilliant horse. When he gets a good trip, he can get the job done, but because he's a grinder lacking a fast closing kick, traffic problems have already proved to be a major problem. If he can get a clean trip, he should win or be in the top three, I'd think. If he doesn't get a clean trip, he's very beatable.
2. Ice Box (Pulpit x Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat) Won the Florida Derby over a weak field, was humiliated by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth before that. If there's a hot early pace that implodes, I could see him maybe picking up the pieces a la Giacomo, but I'll be surprised if he wins.
3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee x The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick) Ran very gamely to be second to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel but I question his distance ability. Hasn’t really shown anything this year that suggests he’s Derby material, especially with a sprinter sire.
4. Super Saver (Maria’s Mon x Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) A close second on the Arkansas Derby last out, but I really doubt he's on a par with the best of this field.
5. Line of David (Lion Heart x Emma’s Dilemma, by Capote) Wired the field in the Arkansas Derby last out, but he was all out to hold off Super Saver and Dublin by inches. Did not like muddy Churchill track in last workout. Distance ability may be suspect, may not be fully cranked after lousy workout. He's a toss for me.
6. Stately Victor (Ghostzapper x Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer) Nothing in his past performances indicated he was capable of a major upset in the Blue Grass, but upset it he did. If that performance was not a fluke, he is one to watch closely. He's got the pedigree for the distance, and he had a very nice work at Churchill. Can he run like that again though?
7. American Lion (Tiznow x Storm Tide, by Storm Cat) Was beaten soundly in California by Sidney’s Candy, but won the Illinois Derby last out, thought the time was quite slow and the field was weak. He's got the pedigree to get the distance, but I don't think he's good enough to win.
8. Dean’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy x Summer Theatre, by Ide) Won the Lane’s End last out on the poly, but I really think he belongs on the turf. He seems to get better with added distance, but much as I like his sire, I’d be very surprised if he hit the board.
9. Make Music For Me (Bernstein x Miss Cheers, by Carson City) Has never run on dirt, has only one win, though he has hit the board in half of his starts. Nice closer, but he probably has distance limitations. A toss.
10. Paddy O’ Prado (El Prado x Fun House, by Prized) An intriguing horse and plenty fast, but his one start on a dirt was not a winning effort. He did work beautifully at Churchill last Friday, so he seems to like the track. Has raced mostly on turf, and his one start on poly was a good second to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass. The question is, can he rate?
11. Devil May Care (Malibu Moon x Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom) The lone filly in the field. Has not beaten the best of her gender and was fairly green in her last start. Pletcher says she wants the distance, but she has alot to prove on Saturday. I'll be pleased if she runs well, but I won't be surprised if she doesn't.
12. Conyeyance (Indian Charlie x Emptythetill, by Holy Bull) Beautiful big grey colt trained by Baffert. Was second last out to Endorsement in the Sunland Derby and had an excellent workout Tuesday morning at Churchill. Probably a rabbit for Lookin at Lucky. I expect him to hook Sidney's Candy early to try to burn him out.
13. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil x Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat) Very consistent (and attractive liver chestnut) colt who has run second in all three starts this year, twice to Eskendereya. He hasn’t beaten the rest of the fields by much, but he might be a contender. Not sure he'll get 10 furlongs though.
14. Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz, by Hold Your Peace) Won Louisiana Derby last out in a slow time. Has yet to beat any of the best horses in this crop. Had a good workout on Saturday, but the last thing we need is a UBS son to win the Derby...
15. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft x Pretty Discreet, by Private Account) Looks to be totally outclassed by this field.
16. Awesome Act (Awesome Again x Houdini’s Honey, by Mr. Prospector) Lightly raced, but acquitted himself as well as could be expected against Eskendereya. If he’s anything like his sire, he’ll get better with age. Not sure he's Derby ready yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him take home a check either.
17. Dublin (Afleet Alex x Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird) Has lost his last five races though he hit the board in three of them. He’s a grinder kind of like Giacomo. Might pick up a check, but I'd be very surprised to see him win.
18. Backtalk (Smarty Jones x Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed) Hasn’t beaten any of the best horses in this crop. Last out was a third in the weak IL Derby. Gate filler.
19. Homeboykris (Roman Ruler x One Last Salute, by Salutely) Hasn’t won since he was two, probably won’t get the distance. Gate filler.
20. Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride x Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat) Comes into the Derby off three straight front-running wins. He is blazingly fast but can also carry his speed 9 furlongs. Can he get one more, especially if he’s pressed early buy other speedsters? If he can rate, he should be able to win. If he won't rate, I expect he'll get burned up on the front end and set the race up for the closers.
With Eskendereya out, I don't really have a strong pick. I like Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and Devil May Care, but they're all beatable. I can see a couple of scenarios for the race:
1. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, get the lead but be pressed hard by the other speed horses and all will burn out on the turn setting the race up for closers. If he gets a clean trip, Lookin at Lucky should be right there to pick up the pieces. If not, it's a free for all for whichever other closer can get to the line without running into traffic.
2. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, not get the lead but will rate comfortably without going too wide, and will zoom away impressively in the stretch.
3. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, not get the lead, will not rate or will be carried way wide and fizzle on the backstretch. Free for all for the closers.
4. All the speed horses try to rate, fearing a burnout with Sidney's Candy. SC gets a comfy uncontested lead and draws away in the stretch a la War Emblem.
5. All the speed horses try to rate, fearing a burnout with Sidney's Candy. SC gets a comfy uncontested lead, but fades in the stretch, leaving Lookin at Lucky and the filly to battle to the wire, ha ha ha.
I dunno. I think the field is wide open if SC or LaL don't get ideal trips. It's impossible to predict and strange things do happen at the Derby. Should be a good race though. I'm kind of relieved to not have a strong feeling about any of the contenders. It's a little less stressful to watch the race that way. :)
Tomorrow kicks off with the La Troienne at 12:26 CST. Rachel Alexandra is back and will hopefully redeem herself against Zardana. Rachel's been working well at Churchill, well enough that she may finally be fit and ready to go which will be utterly awesome. Fingers crossed for a good race from her.
In the next race, the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, I will have my eyes on an Officer colt named Boys At Tosconova. Gotta keep that MOW sire line alive. :)
The Alysheba is loaded with former Derby horses: Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Bullsbay, Macho Again, Cool Coal Man, and Flying Private. I have no idea who's got the best shot, but it'll be an interesting race all the same. I'd like to see Chocolate Candy get it, I think.
I'll be watching Setsuko in the American Turf. He ought to have been in the Derby as I think he could have been a legitimate contender, but Derby fever has infected the owners of no chance horses like Homeboykris and Backtalk, so they're going and Setsuko isn't. Depending on how things shake out in the next 5 weeks, I wonder if he'll be a Belmont horse. He just might like the distance.
1. It's Tea Time (Dynaformer x Prof. McGonagall, by Storm Cat) The Oaks will be her first start on dirt, but she’s hit the board in all three of her previous starts, including nearly winning the Ashland last out. She is a legitimate threat.
2. Jody Slew (Slew City Slew x Trustbuster, by Housebuster) Probably out of her depth here, especially after a 7th place finish in the Fairgrounds Oaks last out. She got cast a few days before that race, so it's a toss, but I'm not sure how good she is.
3. Quiet Temper (Quiet American x Dead Aim, by Silver Deputy) A consistent runner who nearly always brings home a check. Not sure I see her winning, but she has a chance.
4. Age of Humor (Distorted Humor x Age of Silver, by Silver Deputy) Not quite ready to face the caliber of some of the fillies on this field, though I suspect she’ll get better with age.
5. Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision x Lucky One, by Best of Luck) Not the prettiest pedigree, but she seems to be a very classy closer. Would be undefeated this season except for a bad trip in the Santa Anita Oaks. She’s a legitimate contender and favorite.
6. Beautician (Dehere x Caroni, by Rubiano) Seems to prefer the dirt to polytrack, though I don’t think she’s quite ready for this company. Could be an interesting longshot.
7. Crisp (El Corredor x Cat’s Flair, by Sir Cat) Narrowly won the Santa Anita Oaks last out, coming into this race off an 8 week layoff. She might hit the board, but I’m not expecting a win.
8. Tidal Pool (Yankee Gentleman x Sea Rhythm, by Deputy Minister) Was a good second to Blind Luck last out in the Fantasy. If BL runs into traffic problems, I can see TP picking up a check pretty easily.
9. Bella Diamante (Lost Soldier x Sharon’s Song, by Badger Land) Has never won beyond 6 furlongs, looks to be way out of her depth here.
10. Champagne d'Oro (Medaglia d’Oro x Champagne Glow, by Saratoga Six) Hung on gamely for second behind Quiet Temper last out in the Fair Ground Oaks, but I don’t think she’s quite up to the best in this field.
11. Evening Jewel (Northern Afleet x Jewel of the Night, by Giant’s Causeway) Very consistent and classy filly. Narrowly defeated It’s Tea Time last out in the Ashland. Should be close at the finish.
12. Ailalea (Pulpit x Woodsprite, by Woodman) Would have to improve dramatically to have a shot.
13. Amen Hallelujah (Montbrook x Sara’s Success, by Concordes Tune) A longshot, though she was second to Devil May Care (who is entered in the Derby) last out for whatever that’s worth.
14. Joanie's Catch (First Tour x Caught Speeding, by Saint Ballado) Consistently on the board, but would need to improve to win here.
I like It's Tea Time myself. (Or It's TAY-uh-TIM-ay for my Pratchetty friends.) Fun name, fun pedigree, looked fabulous even when losing last out. She's my pick.
Saturday's big races kick off with more nice fillies in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile and the Humana Distaff. Informed Deciision should pretty much be a lock in that one. Munnings, Warrior's Reward, and Kensei all face off in the Churchill Downs Stakes. And General Quarters will face Court Vision and Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve. Not sure that he can win it, but I'm happy just to see him again. He's a nice horse, and being a pretty grey doesn't hurt.
1. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike x Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) A game horse and a good horse, but not a brilliant horse. When he gets a good trip, he can get the job done, but because he's a grinder lacking a fast closing kick, traffic problems have already proved to be a major problem. If he can get a clean trip, he should win or be in the top three, I'd think. If he doesn't get a clean trip, he's very beatable.
2. Ice Box (Pulpit x Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat) Won the Florida Derby over a weak field, was humiliated by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth before that. If there's a hot early pace that implodes, I could see him maybe picking up the pieces a la Giacomo, but I'll be surprised if he wins.
3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee x The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick) Ran very gamely to be second to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel but I question his distance ability. Hasn’t really shown anything this year that suggests he’s Derby material, especially with a sprinter sire.
4. Super Saver (Maria’s Mon x Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) A close second on the Arkansas Derby last out, but I really doubt he's on a par with the best of this field.
5. Line of David (Lion Heart x Emma’s Dilemma, by Capote) Wired the field in the Arkansas Derby last out, but he was all out to hold off Super Saver and Dublin by inches. Did not like muddy Churchill track in last workout. Distance ability may be suspect, may not be fully cranked after lousy workout. He's a toss for me.
6. Stately Victor (Ghostzapper x Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer) Nothing in his past performances indicated he was capable of a major upset in the Blue Grass, but upset it he did. If that performance was not a fluke, he is one to watch closely. He's got the pedigree for the distance, and he had a very nice work at Churchill. Can he run like that again though?
7. American Lion (Tiznow x Storm Tide, by Storm Cat) Was beaten soundly in California by Sidney’s Candy, but won the Illinois Derby last out, thought the time was quite slow and the field was weak. He's got the pedigree to get the distance, but I don't think he's good enough to win.
8. Dean’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy x Summer Theatre, by Ide) Won the Lane’s End last out on the poly, but I really think he belongs on the turf. He seems to get better with added distance, but much as I like his sire, I’d be very surprised if he hit the board.
9. Make Music For Me (Bernstein x Miss Cheers, by Carson City) Has never run on dirt, has only one win, though he has hit the board in half of his starts. Nice closer, but he probably has distance limitations. A toss.
10. Paddy O’ Prado (El Prado x Fun House, by Prized) An intriguing horse and plenty fast, but his one start on a dirt was not a winning effort. He did work beautifully at Churchill last Friday, so he seems to like the track. Has raced mostly on turf, and his one start on poly was a good second to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass. The question is, can he rate?
11. Devil May Care (Malibu Moon x Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom) The lone filly in the field. Has not beaten the best of her gender and was fairly green in her last start. Pletcher says she wants the distance, but she has alot to prove on Saturday. I'll be pleased if she runs well, but I won't be surprised if she doesn't.
12. Conyeyance (Indian Charlie x Emptythetill, by Holy Bull) Beautiful big grey colt trained by Baffert. Was second last out to Endorsement in the Sunland Derby and had an excellent workout Tuesday morning at Churchill. Probably a rabbit for Lookin at Lucky. I expect him to hook Sidney's Candy early to try to burn him out.
13. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil x Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat) Very consistent (and attractive liver chestnut) colt who has run second in all three starts this year, twice to Eskendereya. He hasn’t beaten the rest of the fields by much, but he might be a contender. Not sure he'll get 10 furlongs though.
14. Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz, by Hold Your Peace) Won Louisiana Derby last out in a slow time. Has yet to beat any of the best horses in this crop. Had a good workout on Saturday, but the last thing we need is a UBS son to win the Derby...
15. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft x Pretty Discreet, by Private Account) Looks to be totally outclassed by this field.
16. Awesome Act (Awesome Again x Houdini’s Honey, by Mr. Prospector) Lightly raced, but acquitted himself as well as could be expected against Eskendereya. If he’s anything like his sire, he’ll get better with age. Not sure he's Derby ready yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him take home a check either.
17. Dublin (Afleet Alex x Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird) Has lost his last five races though he hit the board in three of them. He’s a grinder kind of like Giacomo. Might pick up a check, but I'd be very surprised to see him win.
18. Backtalk (Smarty Jones x Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed) Hasn’t beaten any of the best horses in this crop. Last out was a third in the weak IL Derby. Gate filler.
19. Homeboykris (Roman Ruler x One Last Salute, by Salutely) Hasn’t won since he was two, probably won’t get the distance. Gate filler.
20. Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride x Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat) Comes into the Derby off three straight front-running wins. He is blazingly fast but can also carry his speed 9 furlongs. Can he get one more, especially if he’s pressed early buy other speedsters? If he can rate, he should be able to win. If he won't rate, I expect he'll get burned up on the front end and set the race up for the closers.
With Eskendereya out, I don't really have a strong pick. I like Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and Devil May Care, but they're all beatable. I can see a couple of scenarios for the race:
1. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, get the lead but be pressed hard by the other speed horses and all will burn out on the turn setting the race up for closers. If he gets a clean trip, Lookin at Lucky should be right there to pick up the pieces. If not, it's a free for all for whichever other closer can get to the line without running into traffic.
2. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, not get the lead but will rate comfortably without going too wide, and will zoom away impressively in the stretch.
3. Sidney's Candy will gun for the front from the 20 hole, not get the lead, will not rate or will be carried way wide and fizzle on the backstretch. Free for all for the closers.
4. All the speed horses try to rate, fearing a burnout with Sidney's Candy. SC gets a comfy uncontested lead and draws away in the stretch a la War Emblem.
5. All the speed horses try to rate, fearing a burnout with Sidney's Candy. SC gets a comfy uncontested lead, but fades in the stretch, leaving Lookin at Lucky and the filly to battle to the wire, ha ha ha.
I dunno. I think the field is wide open if SC or LaL don't get ideal trips. It's impossible to predict and strange things do happen at the Derby. Should be a good race though. I'm kind of relieved to not have a strong feeling about any of the contenders. It's a little less stressful to watch the race that way. :)