Benchly Predicts the Oscars, Volume 2
The 79th Academy Awards are just a few short minutes away from beginning and even though I don't have the time tonight for a thoughtful entry, considering I've spent the last month boosting the box office results for each major nominee, I have to at least TRY to make some predictions. So bare with me; this will be quick and unedited (unlike the Oscar telecast). Maybe, if I have the time, I'll submit another entry later this week with a more thoughtful discussion on each deserving and undeserving nominee. But until then, this will have to do:
Best Actress - Unfortunately, I didn't get the chance to see Volver and Penelope Cruz's performance in it but since I consider her the Heather Graham of foreign films, I feel confident in eliminating her from consideration. And sadly, I never got to see my girlfriend Kate Winslet in Little Children so I'll have to leave her out as well. Meryl Streep has grown on me as of late but even her most biased fans will admit her performance in The Devil Wears Prada wasn't worthy of an Oscar. Movie buffs will know that Helen Mirren's portrayal of the queen in The Queen has all but guaranteed her the trophy and I predict that she'll win; but my friends, do yourselves a favor and see Judi Dench's performance in Notes on a Scandal. It's equal parts heartbreaking and terrifying.
Best Actor - I am least prepared for this category, having only seen one of the nominated performances (Leo DiCaprio's in Blood Diamond). The trophy has already been engraved with Forest Whitaker's name, so I won't bother predicting another outcome. What I do have to say though is this: Leo's performance in The Departed was great and in any other year, it could have earned him the win; but his performance in Blood Diamond was a thousand times better. I'll even go so far as to say it was the best performance of his career.
Best Supporting Actress - Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi were solid in Babel, but I won't remember their performances in 6 months. And I'm sorry, but Jennifer Hudson, favored to win for her role in Dreamgirls, played a part the same way Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood would have. She can sing; oh MAN can she sing, but singing shouldn't win you this award. And when Beyonce (Beyonce!) puts up an equally impressive performance in the same movie, that all but settles it: this award is between Abigail Breslin's 8 year old pageant girl in Little Miss Sunshine and Cate Blanchett's role opposite Dench in Notes on a Scandal. Breslin was perfect, but her part didn't really require any range. Blanchett's performance was as memorable as Dench's and that is why, in my opinion, she should be taking home another statue tonight.
Best Supporting Actor - To be fair, I'll leave Jackie Earle "Kelly from the Bad News Bears" Haley out of this discussion because I missed Little Children; or rather Burlington, Vermont missed the opportunity to screen Little Children. Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg were hilarious as the druggie-grandfather in Little Miss Sunshine and the sarcastic/vulgar cop in The Departed, respectively; but I'll argue that they didn't support enough. A lame argument but I just can't see them winning. And though he'll probably win, Eddie Murphey, in my opinion, was playing himself on drugs, which, in all honesty, could have just been himself. This award should go to Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond. It won't, but it should.
Best Director - This one is tough. Everyone says Martin Scorsese should win for The Departed (and he will) and I'll admit, it was an intensely entertaining movie. But it's not his best work and with so many layers to the movie, it felt too choppy for my liking. Babel was Crash with far fewer stories to tell, none of which are going to stick with me like Matt Dillon's racist cop or the locksmith and his daughter. United 93 was INTENSE. Holy crap! Some people boycotted this movie out of respect for its super-sensitive subject matter and as a columnist put it: "That's their right, and their loss." Do yourselves a favor and see it. You'll cry, you'll feel intense sadness, and you'll leave the theatre with an ironic sense of relief at having felt a long-lost feeling you once swore you'd never forget. With that said...The Queen, with its sensitive subject matter, can be considered United 93's equal. And in the awards world, equals cancel each other out. And that leaves Clint Eastwood's darling Letters from Iwo Jima. I hope Eastwood continues to make movies for another 30 years because he's perfected the art. And that brings us to...
Best Picture - This year's Best Picture race is by far one of the most difficult ones to predict from the last 20 years. Some claim Little Miss Sunshine will hit the third Shakespeare-in-Love Shot Heard 'Round the World, and though it's my favorite of the bunch, the more I think about it, the more I have to admit it's not worthy of the big prize. It's got a big heart, but it's a little movie. (With that said, if it wins, I'll be jumping for joy!) Like I said before, Babel was this year's Crash and I see that familiarity hurting its chances. I was surprisingly impressed with The Queen but the Academy will stop short after awarding Mirren. In my mind, this award is between Letters From Iwo Jima and The Departed. I can find flaws with the second one, but not the first. And so, it's my prediction that Letters From Iwo Jima will be the actual movie hitting the third Shakespeare-in-Love Shot Heard 'Round the World when it comes out of nowhere to blind side the other contenders with its heartfelt and brutal tale.
PS. Go Ellen Degeneres!