Предсказания
From CPM Group in July 7th Precious Metals Advisory Precious Metals Price Outlooks
Gold Price Outlook
Gold prices spent June moving in a sideways fashion between $1,810 and $1,870, with a slight downside bias. A combination of elevated actual inflation, a hawkish Fed, a decline in inflation expectations, and concerns about a recession were all factors that pushed and pulled gold prices up and down in this range throughout the month of June.
Prices broke out to the downside of June’s trading range at the start of July. Prices declined swiftly as sell stops placed below the $1,810 level were triggered. There were various factors that came together to push gold prices below their June trading range and trigger those sell stops, which magnified the downside move.
First, while actual inflation remains high, the market’s expectations of future inflation have been in a declining trend since March, when the Fed adopted a more hawkish monetary stance. By the end of June these expectations had fallen back to levels seen in early February. Communication from various central banks has suggested that their primary focus is reducing inflation even if that means pressing down hard on growth. This has led to not only reducing inflation expectations but also has weighed on nominal bond yields. The decline in inflation expectation exceeded the decline in nominal rates, for the most part, resulting in relatively high and sometimes rising real rates during June, which put downward pressure on gold prices.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar has been very strong recently in part due to safe haven buying on expectations of a slowdown in economic growth and a potential recession, and in part because despite lowered expectations of economic growth in the United States, the country is still positioned better than other major developed economies.
While investors have been piling into the U.S. dollar and government bonds as a safe haven, they have not turned to gold at this time because of the lower inflation expectations and still positive real rates.
Gold prices could continue to experience some downside in the near future, with positive real rates and seasonal weakness in prices both acting as headwinds. Prices could decline toward $1,720 or even $1,680 in this environment. Last year gold fell as low at $1,678, only to recover to move above $1,900 within a few months.
Recently released U.S. economic data has been mixed with some of it softer than expected. While the U.S. economy is still on solid footing, if there is a loss in growth momentum it could intensify market expectation of a less hawkish Fed. Already, the market is lowering its expectations of how fast the Fed will raise rates in coming months.
According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, the market assigns the highest probability to a 75-basis point increase at the July meeting followed by a 50-basis point increase in September. For the November meeting, the market has lowered its expectation to a 25-basis point increase from a 50-basis point increase. The market expects the final 25-basis point increase to occur in December 2022 taking the benchmark rate to 325 basis points - 350 basis points. The market expects the benchmark rate to remain at these levels until June next year with a 25-basis point cut at the July 2023 meeting. The market may have it wrong, but that is what the current consensus is.
Silver Price Outlook
After moving mostly sideways during June, with a slightly downward bias, silver prices fell off a cliff at the start of July. While silver prices were broadly tracking gold prices, the decline in silver prices has been much sharper. The monthly average gold:silver price ratio rose to 89 in June, which was the highest since June 2020. During the first three trading days of July, the ratio rose to 93.
At the current level of this ratio, silver looks attractive relative to gold. That said, while this ratio is high by historic standards, there is every possibility that the ratio continues to rise. The greater price weakness of silver relative to gold, visible in both actual prices and the ratio of the two prices, reflects much greater weakness and disinterest in silver on the part of investors. This suggests that silver may remain under price pressure and weak relative to gold.
Silver prices could experience some further weakness in the coming months, as the market passes through a period of seasonal price weakness. Concerns about a recession have hurt investor sentiment about the future prospects of silver fabrication demand. In addition to seasonal weakness and worries about future fabrication demand a strong U.S. dollar also is expected to continue weighing on silver prices. Investors also have been turned off of silver by over-zealous marketing hype that has led some investors to be disappointed and disenchanted with the metal, tired on the unrealistic and nonsensical commentary about conspiracies and global economic collapses.
Silver prices could decline with initial support at $18.40. If this support is broken a decline to $17.30 should not be ruled out. A lot of the negative sentiment already is factored into prices, however, so while further silver price declines are possible they may be more likely to be short lived.
Platinum Price Outlook
Platinum prices slid lower over the course of June. Prices ended the month at $898.40, the lowest level since the middle of December 2021. Prices have continued to decline alongside the rest of the precious metals complex, base metals, oil, stocks, and bonds since the start of July. There are several factors that have been weighing on platinum prices, which include concerns about slowing economic growth, weakness in commercial vehicle markets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and seasonal weakness in prices.
The weakness in platinum prices is likely to continue at least over the next couple of months. Prices could retest $760, a level not seen since May 2020. Ongoing wage negotiations at Sibanye-Stillwater’s South African platinum group metal mines is providing some support to platinum prices currently. If a wage agreement were reached it would put some additional downward pressure on prices. If wage negotiations were to breakdown and or if the mine workers went on strike, platinum prices could rise at least toward $960. Platinum prices could go higher depending on the duration of the strike as well. Platinum prices also are being helped by the reintroduction of platinum in gasoline autocatalysts. The general weakness in auto markets is expected to limit the positive impact of this reintroduction, however.
Palladium Price Outlook
Palladium prices look vulnerable to the downside in the near term. Palladium prices have been in a declining trend over the past several months, following the sharp spike higher after war broke out between Russia and Ukraine.
Concerns about palladium supply disruptions due to the war have died down, removing much of that premium. There still are some concerns about supply disruptions from a potential strike at Sibanye-Stillwater’s South African PGM mines. But with other South African PGM mining companies able to negotiate wage agreements the market is unwilling to push palladium prices higher based on the possibility that wage talks fail at Sibanye. This factor is therefore only supportive of palladium prices but not one that will help push palladium prices higher.
If there is an actual strike due to failed wage talks between Sibanye and the labor unions, palladium prices might be expected to rise potentially toward $2,260 or even higher if the strike drags on for long. If a wage agreement is reached, it would weigh heavily on palladium prices, with little support to palladium prices from fabrication demand.
Palladium fabrication demand is hurting due to general weakness in the auto sector but also the ongoing increase in battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share in some major auto markets like China and Europe.
On the downside, palladium prices have initial support at $1,780, which if broken could see palladium prices slipping to $1,640.
P.S. Я специально не стал переводить. Публикую, как есть. Гугл переводчик тем в помощь, кому сложно с инглиш.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold prices spent June moving in a sideways fashion between $1,810 and $1,870, with a slight downside bias. A combination of elevated actual inflation, a hawkish Fed, a decline in inflation expectations, and concerns about a recession were all factors that pushed and pulled gold prices up and down in this range throughout the month of June.
Prices broke out to the downside of June’s trading range at the start of July. Prices declined swiftly as sell stops placed below the $1,810 level were triggered. There were various factors that came together to push gold prices below their June trading range and trigger those sell stops, which magnified the downside move.
First, while actual inflation remains high, the market’s expectations of future inflation have been in a declining trend since March, when the Fed adopted a more hawkish monetary stance. By the end of June these expectations had fallen back to levels seen in early February. Communication from various central banks has suggested that their primary focus is reducing inflation even if that means pressing down hard on growth. This has led to not only reducing inflation expectations but also has weighed on nominal bond yields. The decline in inflation expectation exceeded the decline in nominal rates, for the most part, resulting in relatively high and sometimes rising real rates during June, which put downward pressure on gold prices.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar has been very strong recently in part due to safe haven buying on expectations of a slowdown in economic growth and a potential recession, and in part because despite lowered expectations of economic growth in the United States, the country is still positioned better than other major developed economies.
While investors have been piling into the U.S. dollar and government bonds as a safe haven, they have not turned to gold at this time because of the lower inflation expectations and still positive real rates.
Gold prices could continue to experience some downside in the near future, with positive real rates and seasonal weakness in prices both acting as headwinds. Prices could decline toward $1,720 or even $1,680 in this environment. Last year gold fell as low at $1,678, only to recover to move above $1,900 within a few months.
Recently released U.S. economic data has been mixed with some of it softer than expected. While the U.S. economy is still on solid footing, if there is a loss in growth momentum it could intensify market expectation of a less hawkish Fed. Already, the market is lowering its expectations of how fast the Fed will raise rates in coming months.
According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, the market assigns the highest probability to a 75-basis point increase at the July meeting followed by a 50-basis point increase in September. For the November meeting, the market has lowered its expectation to a 25-basis point increase from a 50-basis point increase. The market expects the final 25-basis point increase to occur in December 2022 taking the benchmark rate to 325 basis points - 350 basis points. The market expects the benchmark rate to remain at these levels until June next year with a 25-basis point cut at the July 2023 meeting. The market may have it wrong, but that is what the current consensus is.
Silver Price Outlook
After moving mostly sideways during June, with a slightly downward bias, silver prices fell off a cliff at the start of July. While silver prices were broadly tracking gold prices, the decline in silver prices has been much sharper. The monthly average gold:silver price ratio rose to 89 in June, which was the highest since June 2020. During the first three trading days of July, the ratio rose to 93.
At the current level of this ratio, silver looks attractive relative to gold. That said, while this ratio is high by historic standards, there is every possibility that the ratio continues to rise. The greater price weakness of silver relative to gold, visible in both actual prices and the ratio of the two prices, reflects much greater weakness and disinterest in silver on the part of investors. This suggests that silver may remain under price pressure and weak relative to gold.
Silver prices could experience some further weakness in the coming months, as the market passes through a period of seasonal price weakness. Concerns about a recession have hurt investor sentiment about the future prospects of silver fabrication demand. In addition to seasonal weakness and worries about future fabrication demand a strong U.S. dollar also is expected to continue weighing on silver prices. Investors also have been turned off of silver by over-zealous marketing hype that has led some investors to be disappointed and disenchanted with the metal, tired on the unrealistic and nonsensical commentary about conspiracies and global economic collapses.
Silver prices could decline with initial support at $18.40. If this support is broken a decline to $17.30 should not be ruled out. A lot of the negative sentiment already is factored into prices, however, so while further silver price declines are possible they may be more likely to be short lived.
Platinum Price Outlook
Platinum prices slid lower over the course of June. Prices ended the month at $898.40, the lowest level since the middle of December 2021. Prices have continued to decline alongside the rest of the precious metals complex, base metals, oil, stocks, and bonds since the start of July. There are several factors that have been weighing on platinum prices, which include concerns about slowing economic growth, weakness in commercial vehicle markets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and seasonal weakness in prices.
The weakness in platinum prices is likely to continue at least over the next couple of months. Prices could retest $760, a level not seen since May 2020. Ongoing wage negotiations at Sibanye-Stillwater’s South African platinum group metal mines is providing some support to platinum prices currently. If a wage agreement were reached it would put some additional downward pressure on prices. If wage negotiations were to breakdown and or if the mine workers went on strike, platinum prices could rise at least toward $960. Platinum prices could go higher depending on the duration of the strike as well. Platinum prices also are being helped by the reintroduction of platinum in gasoline autocatalysts. The general weakness in auto markets is expected to limit the positive impact of this reintroduction, however.
Palladium Price Outlook
Palladium prices look vulnerable to the downside in the near term. Palladium prices have been in a declining trend over the past several months, following the sharp spike higher after war broke out between Russia and Ukraine.
Concerns about palladium supply disruptions due to the war have died down, removing much of that premium. There still are some concerns about supply disruptions from a potential strike at Sibanye-Stillwater’s South African PGM mines. But with other South African PGM mining companies able to negotiate wage agreements the market is unwilling to push palladium prices higher based on the possibility that wage talks fail at Sibanye. This factor is therefore only supportive of palladium prices but not one that will help push palladium prices higher.
If there is an actual strike due to failed wage talks between Sibanye and the labor unions, palladium prices might be expected to rise potentially toward $2,260 or even higher if the strike drags on for long. If a wage agreement is reached, it would weigh heavily on palladium prices, with little support to palladium prices from fabrication demand.
Palladium fabrication demand is hurting due to general weakness in the auto sector but also the ongoing increase in battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share in some major auto markets like China and Europe.
On the downside, palladium prices have initial support at $1,780, which if broken could see palladium prices slipping to $1,640.
P.S. Я специально не стал переводить. Публикую, как есть. Гугл переводчик тем в помощь, кому сложно с инглиш.