Polls part 2
The Gallup poll after the second Bush/ Kerry debate just said that the respondants basically called it a tie, with 47% for Kerry and 45% for Bush.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13549&pg=1
But look at the fine print:
>> Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.
The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%). Also, the sample of viewers support Bush over Kerry in the presidential race by 50% to 46%. <<
38% Republicans in the sample is overweighting toward Republicans and underweighting toward Democrats.
Kerry was the clear victor and Bush was the clear loser. The most telling moment (well minute and 18 seconds) occurred when Bush yelled at the moderator Charlie Gibson and then started yelling and preaching toward the audience while Kerry answered calmly and forcefully. In both style and substance, Kerry was and is the better man.
Here's the clip:
http://www.oliverwillis.com/stuff/bushflipsout.wmv
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13549&pg=1
But look at the fine print:
>> Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.
The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%). Also, the sample of viewers support Bush over Kerry in the presidential race by 50% to 46%. <<
38% Republicans in the sample is overweighting toward Republicans and underweighting toward Democrats.
Kerry was the clear victor and Bush was the clear loser. The most telling moment (well minute and 18 seconds) occurred when Bush yelled at the moderator Charlie Gibson and then started yelling and preaching toward the audience while Kerry answered calmly and forcefully. In both style and substance, Kerry was and is the better man.
Here's the clip:
http://www.oliverwillis.com/stuff/bushflipsout.wmv