2010 World Cup Qualifying Preview: OFC!
And now, for the benefit of more or less Brad, here's my look at the Oceania Football Confederation's qualification tournament for the 2010 World Cup, along with lame and most likely wrong predictions!
First off, the biggest change is the absence of Australia. With the Socceroos' move to the AFC, New Zealand is left to run rampant (or so it would seem) over the island nations. Yet they were beaten out by the Solomons last time (well, actually they lost to Vanuatu, which allowed the Solomons to squeak past them in the standings). So who knows what could happen!
The tournament begins tomorrow (or more likely tonight, as they're about 16 hours ahead of us) at the 2007 Pacific Games in Samoa. 10 teams (only 9 of which are eligible for the World Cup) will compete, and the top three will advance to play New Zealand in a double round robin tournament. The winner of thatis OFC Champion, and also will play Asia's 5th place team for a spot in South Africa.
Group A:
Tahiti
Fiji
New Caledonia
Cook Islands
Tuvalu*
* - Tuvalu is an associate member of the OFC and is not a member of FIFA, and is therefore ineligible for the World Cup. Nobody's really sure what happens if they somehow win the whole thing. Probably whatever team comes in 2nd advances. But it's highly unlikely anyway.
Fiji is the favorite in this group, and Tuvalu and the Cook Islands are certainly the weakest in the field. New Caledonia and Tahiti should both get wins over Tuvalu and the Cook Islands and lose to Fiji, but a tie is feasible in just about any of those games. The big one here will be the first game - New Caledonia against Tahiti. The winner here should advance to the semifinals. I think that New Caledonia will edge Tahiti out, either by a close win, by tying Fiji or having Tahiti tie one of the weaker teams, or even by goal difference. In any case, look for Fiji-New Caledonia to go 1-2.
Group B:
Solomon Islands
American Samoa
Samoa
Tonga
Vanuatu
The Solomons are the favorites coming into this, having a strong beach soccer program and also having advanced to the final round against Australia last go around. However, Vanuatu are the team that beat New Zealand, Tonga are traditionally at least respectable in their efforts, and Samoa is at home. American Samoa.. well, they did lose 31-0 to Australia a while back. Samoa, though at home, are another weak team, and will probably only get a win vs. American Samoa. Tonga will go 2-2, and expect the Solomons to live up to expectations (fittingly) despite the absence of Kidstrom "Big Game" Billy and top the group, with Vanuatu close behind.
Semifinals:
I'll take the Solomon Islands over New Caledonia, and Fiji beating out Vanuatu in a shootout.
Final: Not that it matters for World Cup Qualifying, but Fiji beats Solomons, 1-0.
Third Place: In the elimination game, Vanuatu tops New Caledonia by 2, and moves on.
So much for the Pacific Games, now on to the next round!
The Kiwis start off away against the bronze medalists from the Pacific Games, so in my scenario, they'd start against Vanuatu. Despite past results, I see New Zealand winning here, and though the Solomon Islands and Fiji would be competitive, I think that the most either of them could expect is a tie at home against New Zealand, so I'm looking for New Zealand to go through with a record of 5-0-1, followed by the Solomon Islands, Fiji, and lastly Vanuatu.
New Zealand would then advance to face 5th place in Asia for a spot in the 2010 World Cup....
which I will address when I do an Asia prediction.
Feel Free to argue or comment.
First off, the biggest change is the absence of Australia. With the Socceroos' move to the AFC, New Zealand is left to run rampant (or so it would seem) over the island nations. Yet they were beaten out by the Solomons last time (well, actually they lost to Vanuatu, which allowed the Solomons to squeak past them in the standings). So who knows what could happen!
The tournament begins tomorrow (or more likely tonight, as they're about 16 hours ahead of us) at the 2007 Pacific Games in Samoa. 10 teams (only 9 of which are eligible for the World Cup) will compete, and the top three will advance to play New Zealand in a double round robin tournament. The winner of thatis OFC Champion, and also will play Asia's 5th place team for a spot in South Africa.
Group A:
Tahiti
Fiji
New Caledonia
Cook Islands
Tuvalu*
* - Tuvalu is an associate member of the OFC and is not a member of FIFA, and is therefore ineligible for the World Cup. Nobody's really sure what happens if they somehow win the whole thing. Probably whatever team comes in 2nd advances. But it's highly unlikely anyway.
Fiji is the favorite in this group, and Tuvalu and the Cook Islands are certainly the weakest in the field. New Caledonia and Tahiti should both get wins over Tuvalu and the Cook Islands and lose to Fiji, but a tie is feasible in just about any of those games. The big one here will be the first game - New Caledonia against Tahiti. The winner here should advance to the semifinals. I think that New Caledonia will edge Tahiti out, either by a close win, by tying Fiji or having Tahiti tie one of the weaker teams, or even by goal difference. In any case, look for Fiji-New Caledonia to go 1-2.
Group B:
Solomon Islands
American Samoa
Samoa
Tonga
Vanuatu
The Solomons are the favorites coming into this, having a strong beach soccer program and also having advanced to the final round against Australia last go around. However, Vanuatu are the team that beat New Zealand, Tonga are traditionally at least respectable in their efforts, and Samoa is at home. American Samoa.. well, they did lose 31-0 to Australia a while back. Samoa, though at home, are another weak team, and will probably only get a win vs. American Samoa. Tonga will go 2-2, and expect the Solomons to live up to expectations (fittingly) despite the absence of Kidstrom "Big Game" Billy and top the group, with Vanuatu close behind.
Semifinals:
I'll take the Solomon Islands over New Caledonia, and Fiji beating out Vanuatu in a shootout.
Final: Not that it matters for World Cup Qualifying, but Fiji beats Solomons, 1-0.
Third Place: In the elimination game, Vanuatu tops New Caledonia by 2, and moves on.
So much for the Pacific Games, now on to the next round!
The Kiwis start off away against the bronze medalists from the Pacific Games, so in my scenario, they'd start against Vanuatu. Despite past results, I see New Zealand winning here, and though the Solomon Islands and Fiji would be competitive, I think that the most either of them could expect is a tie at home against New Zealand, so I'm looking for New Zealand to go through with a record of 5-0-1, followed by the Solomon Islands, Fiji, and lastly Vanuatu.
New Zealand would then advance to face 5th place in Asia for a spot in the 2010 World Cup....
which I will address when I do an Asia prediction.
Feel Free to argue or comment.