Джон Молдин о европейском финансовом кризисе
http://kuznetsov.livejournal.com/216302.html
Статья Джона Молдина о европейском фискальном кризисе: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo021210.pdf. Простой и доходчивый обзор того, что происходт с Грецией и прочими.
Цитата для примера (из заключения):
The lesson here? This is not just a Greek problem. Debt and out of control deficits are a problem all over the developed world. The Greeks are just the first. As Niall Ferguson wrote this week in the "Financial Times", the contagion is headed to US shores unless we get our budget house in order. You cannot spend your way out of a fiscal crisis. The current path is simply unsustainable. At some point, we can become Greece. Yes, we have the advantage of having our debt denominated in dollars, but that is only an advantage up to a certain point.
The Nobel Prize economists (who will go nameless here) who say the US cannot default because our debt is in dollars miss the point. Being the world’s reserve currency just means we can run up bigger bills, but if we go the route of printing money to pay those bills, that is devaluation and fraud, as the value of a dollar will diminish; and that is tantamount to default.
Whether it is Japan or Portugal or the US or (pick a country), the body of evidence clearly shows that there is a limit to the amount of debt a sovereign country can handle without a crisis developing. That limit is different for each country, but there is a limit that the bond market will impose. And there are many countries in the developed world that are approaching that limit.
We are in the fullness of time approaching the End Game. In country after country, the choices that have been made over the last decades will yield a Greek situation, where there are no good choices. And the longer the hard choices are put off, the more difficult they will become.
(Собственно говоря, это не просто статья, а пятничный выпуск его еженедельного ньюслеттера. Для тех, кто не знает: Джон Молдин - один из самых адекватных из известных мне мэйнстримных экономистов. Всем, кто интересуется современными экономическими проблемами, советую подписаться на его ньюслеттер здесь: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/subscribe.asp.)
Статья Джона Молдина о европейском фискальном кризисе: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo021210.pdf. Простой и доходчивый обзор того, что происходт с Грецией и прочими.
Цитата для примера (из заключения):
The lesson here? This is not just a Greek problem. Debt and out of control deficits are a problem all over the developed world. The Greeks are just the first. As Niall Ferguson wrote this week in the "Financial Times", the contagion is headed to US shores unless we get our budget house in order. You cannot spend your way out of a fiscal crisis. The current path is simply unsustainable. At some point, we can become Greece. Yes, we have the advantage of having our debt denominated in dollars, but that is only an advantage up to a certain point.
The Nobel Prize economists (who will go nameless here) who say the US cannot default because our debt is in dollars miss the point. Being the world’s reserve currency just means we can run up bigger bills, but if we go the route of printing money to pay those bills, that is devaluation and fraud, as the value of a dollar will diminish; and that is tantamount to default.
Whether it is Japan or Portugal or the US or (pick a country), the body of evidence clearly shows that there is a limit to the amount of debt a sovereign country can handle without a crisis developing. That limit is different for each country, but there is a limit that the bond market will impose. And there are many countries in the developed world that are approaching that limit.
We are in the fullness of time approaching the End Game. In country after country, the choices that have been made over the last decades will yield a Greek situation, where there are no good choices. And the longer the hard choices are put off, the more difficult they will become.
(Собственно говоря, это не просто статья, а пятничный выпуск его еженедельного ньюслеттера. Для тех, кто не знает: Джон Молдин - один из самых адекватных из известных мне мэйнстримных экономистов. Всем, кто интересуется современными экономическими проблемами, советую подписаться на его ньюслеттер здесь: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/subscribe.asp.)