(no subject)
Now, talking about aging and Social Security, I somehow don’t get it. On the one hand it’s said that this is a terrible problem, and on the other hand it is said that it doesn’t really make much difference. Now, the average age of immigrants, the last time I looked, was 29 years old. They
pay into - I think the age of Social Security is now not 67. I think it’s 69, but that’s irrelevant. So they are paying into the Social Security system for 40 years before they get a nickel, and the illegals, they may never get any Social Security. They’re just putting money into your
retirement.
Now, what do we know - the hate du jour these days are Mexicans. What do we know about Mexicans? By the way, Iris was here as an illegal immigrant and was smuggled in by a coyote in the trunk of a car with 15 other people. And it’s hard to believe, but if you remember those telephone booth contests, it’s conceivable. Mexicans today . . . the Department of
Defense has elaborate data structures. They can tell you everything but who’s going to win the war. The greatest percentage of Congressional Medal of Honor winners in American history are Mexican Americans and Mexican immigrants because you don’t have to be a citizen. Every survey that I am familiar with shows that immigrants are more popular . . . (chuckles) they’re
not more popular; they’re more patriotic than Americans generally.
Now, I guess I’ll save . . . I’ve got a lot . . . oh, by the way, every study we have by the Environmental Protection Agency shows that pollution - air, water, land - is going down. If you have . . . if you’re running out of space, we have a very interesting solution in this country.
We build suburbs and we build these nice roads, and if you have crowded traffic, you build some more roads. And we have got 2,900 miles across, from ocean - from sea to shining sea - of places to build things and grow things. And I would suggest that continued population growth on a fairly moderate basis . . . it is, you know, from 1900 to 1910 we took in about as many immigrants as we’re taking in now, with one-fourth the population. And everybody said, “My God, they’re swamping the country.” That was the big word. All these unclean immigrants; they’re swamping the country.
Well, I told you about the Jews. They said the Italians were just absolutely terrible. And then, you know, a generation later, I don’t happen to agree with them, but you end up with a brilliant man named Mario Cuomo. Now, where did that . . . where did that come from? It came through the beneficial effects of . . . of assimilation. And our secret weapon is, in this
global society, is that we know how to assimilate people and the Europeans don’t have a clue.
I think I’ll rest my case for the moment.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Thanks, Ben. I’ll let Steve and Roy take some pot shots, but I just wanted to make the first point - we’ll have short responses, and then we’ll get to Q&A - is that positive anecdotes can’t work unless you’re going to include the negative anecdotes. That’s why we skip anecdotes.
MR. WATTENBERG: No, no. Excuse me, Mark -
MR. KRIKORIAN: I sort of avoid talking about the Newark . . . the Newark murderer, because he doesn’t . . . he’s not . . . he’s not an argument against immigration, just as positive anecdotes aren’t arguments for immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Mark, Mark, you weren’t listening. Anecdotes are the plural of data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: No, actually -
MR. WATTENBERG: The assembled anecdotes equal the data. Assembled anecdotes equal data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Okay, good.
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And - but my point is we don’t have . . . you need to assemble positive and negative anecdotes. If you’re going to do that, and that’s why . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right, and you consolidate . . . you consolidate all of those and you end up with data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And my point is the Newark murderer isn’t here to be the anecdote, the other end of the anecdote stream, if you will.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s . . . that’s correct, and no native Americans, like the kids who killed the - the Clutter boys, the Clutter family in Iowa, and McVeigh, who blew up the building in Oklahoma City, they were immigrants also. McVeigh is a very . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Oh, but my point is that immigration can’t be either supported or justified by happy stories. You have to consolidate the happy stories all together, as you were saying, and that’s what data is without the . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right. We are . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Without the stories underlying
MR. WATTENBERG: We are . . . we are in agreement on that. You have to consolidate the data, the anecdotes.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Steve, give a short response and then Roy and then we’ll go to Q&A.
MR. WATTENBERG: I’m more than happy to . . . (inaudible) questions.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Oh, okay.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, I mean, I hope, Ben, you’re not saying that anyone who has concerns, like let’s say right now immigration is maybe 15 million or 16 million people come in a decade. If somebody says, “Gee, I think that would be better, for a variety of reasons, if it was 3 (million) or 4 million,” like, say, Barbara Jordan, who was the first African American
congresswoman elected from Texas. She submitted a proposal that would suggest that maybe a moderate pace of immigration. She headed a commission in the 1990s. I hope you’re not suggesting that anybody who is critical of the current level is, you know, wearing a white sheet because you could turn it around and say, look, you know - pick someone, again, as Mark
points out. Look, Osama bin Laden would like a very generous immigration system for the United States. Therefore, because you and he agree on immigration, boom, you’re together. I . . . I think that’s just . . . I don’t find that a valid way of thinking.
Let me also say this about history. If history is to be our guide on immigration, then we should know the history, what happened. World War I came along in 1914 and then restrictive legislation in the ‘20s, and immigration was low for about 50 or 60 years. If the past is to be our
guide, then we need to have low immigration for many years so that we can assimilate the immigrants here. You can’t just say, well, gee, everything worked out well in the past. And it might work out fine now; this study doesn’t say whether it would work out or not. It doesn’t really deal at all with the question of assimilation. But the question is can you talk about the past without talking about the most important event in American immigration history, the reduction and 50 or 60 years of low immigration?
On the question of are there vast tracts of the United States unfilled with people, clearly that’s true, though it’s always important to note that about 10 states account for almost three-fourths of population increase, and only a small fraction of the counties in the United States are absorbing most of the people. And that has been true for many, many years.
So the other question is maybe it would be a good idea to fill up the Dakotas with lots of people. So far, very few people are going to Wyoming and the Dakotas, numerically, anyway, but maybe we’d want to see that number go way up. But I do think it would be important to ask the people there if they would like to live in a state of 5 (million) or 10 million people, and
we should incorporate their perspective on this, as our fellow Americans in this debate. So . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Roy, do you have anything you want to say?
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: May I ask a question? Why would Osama bin Laden like high immigration into the United States? So that Arab kids can learn American views and values and sing rock and roll and - (laughter) - and all that kind of stuff? I mean, just explain that to me.
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, okay.
MR. WATTENBERG: I’m just . . . maybe there’s something I don’t get.
MR. CAMAROTA: Because if he . . . sure. He would . . . we both agree he’d like to attack the United States on our own soil, right?
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s correct.
MR. CAMAROTA: It’s hard to do from a cave in Afghanistan, right?
MR. WATTENBERG: Yes.
MR. CAMAROTA: So he’s got to get somebody here.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right.
MR. CAMAROTA: If the Mexican border is easy to cross, that’s helpful. If it’s easy to get a student visa in Riyadh, that’s helpful. It doesn’t mean that everybody who crosses the Mexican border is somehow working for Osama bin Laden, but you asked why would he want open immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Steve - Steve, how many terrorists attacks have we had since 9/11 in America?
MR. CAMAROTA: We’ve had about 13 or 14 failed plots.
MR. WATTENBERG: How many successful terrorist attacks did we have in the United States?
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, look. We haven’t had any.
MR. WATTENBERG: Thank you.
MR. CAMAROTA: So all is well. Is that the idea? We’re perfectly safe? Is . . . okay. Well, I mean it does sound a little like the guy who jumps off the 10-story building and on the way down, people say, “How’s it going?” And he says, “Hey, so far, so good.” (Laughter.) But in any event, maybe we should take questions.
MR. WATTENBERG: Just one moment.
What country did McHugh come from before he attacked --
MR. KRIKORIAN: McVeigh, you mean.
MR. WATTENBERG: What was the . . . his immigration status? Did he come in illegally? He lived in Buffalo and he was a former Marine.
MR. CAMAROTA: I think you mean Timothy McVeigh. He certainly was born in the United States, so because we have native-born kooks and terrorists and murderers, we shouldn’t try to keep people who might do that out? I don’t understand. I certainly wouldn’t make the case for immigration one way or the other based on anecdote. Mohammed Atta, who lived in the United States for a number of years and led the attack of 9/11 seems to me no more illustrative or can tell us about . . . as much about immigration as Andy Grove, who founded or built Intel into a multinational corporation. I would prefer to talk about what the actual data that we have about immigration and immigrants more generally.
MR. WATTENBERG: May we agree that the collection of anecdotes equal data? Is that fair to say?
MR. : No.
MR. WATTENBERG: Why not?
MR. CAMAROTA: I’m . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Please explain it.
MR. : Unless there’s some system when you collect data . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: Maybe this is a good segue for a question. You ask the first question.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s take regular questions from the audience.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: Let me listen. I want to hear it.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, go ahead. Is there a microphone he’s supposed to have?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Okay. Well, here. Let’s just go ahead.
Q: Since the business community is generally pro-immigration, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, they want to . . . their support . . . the business community funding a program for increased immigration, what should this data, using this data, what would you say to the business community . . . Chamber of Commerce - the U.S. Chamber of Commerce specifically?
MR. CAMAROTA: One thing I can say is that immigration doesn’t really change the ratio of workers to retirees under any immigration scenario. It increases the number of retirees just like it increases the number of workers. But on the question of . . . it depends on what members the Chamber of Commerce would like. Would they like to live in a country with a much, a much more densely settled country with a much larger population? If they would like that, then they have a right as political actors to vote for that, I suppose. And they have a . . . you know, I can’t think of any reason why that wouldn’t be something that . . . the question for the country is . . . or maybe put it this way. These projections tell us where we’re headed as a country. The question we have to answer is, “Do we want to go there?”
MR. BECK: I . . . one thing about the study that is so depressing to me is actually pretty good news for the business community, and that is you can cut all immigration off and there’s going to be some continued growth throughout the century. So this . . . we’re no longer in a situation where we once were, where there was a possibility of actually having stability or of even having a little . . . a small decline in size of the population. The business community has to know that they don’t need immigration for growth. It’s all home. It can all be homegrown basically from the immigrants that have come over the last 30 years and their descendants.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And just one thing I’d quickly add to that is that the . . . in other words, what should the Chamber of Commerce take from this? It’s that their policy, their . . . essentially, their support for a social engineering program to supplement the mistakes that Americans are supposedly making in not having enough kids actually works. So in other words, immigration does what they want. It does, in fact, artificially increase the population in a way that Americans, making their own private decisions, wouldn’t do. The question is, as Steve said, is that a good idea or not?
MR. WATTENBERG: Excuse me for a minute.
You know, you’re using as a pejorative social engineering.
MR. CAMEROTA: Yeah.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: - a pejorative.
MR. WATTENBERG: Yeah.
Do you think the Land-Grant College Act by . . . initiated by Abraham Lincoln was social engineering? Do you think that the establishment of the railroads was social engineering? Do you think that the establishment of the interstate highway system was social engineering? Do you think that Medicare was social engineering? I . . . are you -
MR. KRIKORIAN: Medicare, yes.
MR. WATTENBERG: And you think that’s bad?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Social engineering is, generally speaking, in a free society a problem. Yes, it’s a bad thing.
MR. WATTENBERG: Was the establishment of Medicare a bad thing?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yeah. I’d have to say yes. Social Security likewise. The question is not, though, do we get rid of it. We have it now.
MR. WATTENBERG: Let us establish that you are in a minority of about 5 percent or 3 percent of the American people, just like Pat Buchanan.
MR. KRIKORIAN: No, I mean, probably not actually . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Now.
MR. KRIKORIAN: - Because I don’t want to get rid of it. I’m saying that if you had to start from scratch . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay, if you want.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: Relevant to this issue . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay. Aside from . . .
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: Aside from Ron Paul, tell me the name of an elected official in this town who’s against Social Security and plans to run for office.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Against what?
MR. WATTENBERG: Against . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: In 1937 against, or against it today?
MR. WATTENBERG: No, excuse me. Today. Who would like to repeal Social Security?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Nobody including me.
MR. WATTENBERG: I thought you said it was a bad thing.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It was a bad thing. And now we have it. Now we’re stuck with it.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: But it doesn’t really matter . . . it doesn’t matter . . .
MR. BECK: You could ask the same question.
MR. WATTENBERG: It’s the most popular program in America.
MR. BECK: But how many candidates would run for office today - and there are some. There are some. But how many candidates running for Congress - for Senate - even for president. Even though it’s . . . and they would actually run on a platform that “We are going to basically increase the addition. We like the addition of 160 million people in the next 50 years, and we’re going to increase that.” There are some, but it’s very few. And yet they push those policies. They run on high immigration policies, but they do not dwell with the people saying, “This is what we’re offering you.” This is the scenario, and I think that’s . . . you know, Ben, it’s interesting because you and I met . . . you didn’t meet me, but I met you (laughter.)
MR. WATTENBERG: I suspect it was mutual.
MR. BECK: No, I met you at a USO club in New York City in Look Magazine back in 1971. (Laughter.) I was there waiting for some free tickets to see a concert or a play before being shipped out and I read Look Magazine and I read your comments on the 1970 Census. So I’ve been . . . you and I have been on opposite sides on this scenario for America and . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: We can stipulate that.
MR. BECK: - and I congratulate you. For my entire adult life, I’ve been watching you win. So you . . . your side has done a very good job in terms of the politics of it.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s take another question.
MR. WATTENBERG: Now wait a minute . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: No.
MR. WATTENBERG: No, just one second. You said, I think, that every American candidate for president is . . .
MR. BECK: I said most.
MR. WATTENBERG: - most are not for restricting immigration. Is that what you’re saying?
MR. BECK: They’re for increasing immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Right. And now you just said that nobody would run that way. Would you . . .
MR. BECK: But they don’t run on a policy saying, “We’re going to add more than 160 million people.” They don’t - they do not claim that adding that number of people - they don’t think that’s a good thing to run on. They try to run on increasing immigration.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: You mean they have this big secret from the American people - (inaudible) - that you can bring in immigrants and it won’t add to the population.
MR. BECK: It is an amazing secret.
MR. WATTENBERG: Don’t tell me that. (Laughter.)
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, I would say, having studied the population issue for a long time . . . yeah, whenever this story comes to sprawl or school-age population and we all know as demographers the critical impact of immigration, but it never comes up in the news article. It’s astonishing, but it’s generally something not discussed, rightly or wrongly.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yes, sir.
Q: Yes. I have two questions. One is a quick one and the other one is related to it. One is you said you were estimating 1.6 million coming in -
MR. CAMAROTA: Right.
Q: - per year, and the short question is do you consider it possible undercount or underenumeration of that? And the second part of that is just yesterday, I was speaking with the chief of the Immigration Statistics Staff at the Census Bureau. He told me quite directly the Census Bureau is unable to directly estimate coverage of the foreign born, and at the most we could maybe do it indirectly, but then we’re not really sure.
And the follow-up question on that is: suppose we have another scenario like the 2000 census where the Census Bureau just flat out misses a bunch of people because it has no means of evaluating how good the coverage is of the foreign born. And what does that do to the scenario, which is not to detract from your . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: Right. Well, the current population survey and most census surveys show about 1.5 million new arrivals - some research indicates about a 5 percent undercount of the total foreign born - and that’s how you get to 1.6 [million] new arrivals. If you take deaths out and then look at the growth, you can estimate net immigration - how many people are going home. But you’re right, it could be higher and then all these population numbers would be correspondingly higher.
MR. WATTENBERG: May I point something out? One-point-six million sounds like a lot of people. That’s the numerator. The denominator is 305 million, okay? Now, that is like going into a big cocktail party in the Waldorf-Astoria, there are 600 people there, the ice cubes are clinking, they’re eating those little frankfurters and everybody’s talking and having a good time and in walks one couple from Pakistan. And you turn to Pat Buchanan and say, “Uh oh, there goes the neighborhood.” It’s two people. That’s what it - that’s what we’re talking about. We’re talking about two people. We’re talking about two people in a room of 600. That’s what these numbers mean.
MR. CAMAROTA: Let me say one thing: That’s not what the numbers mean. What the numbers mean is actually the cumulative effect of immigration. It’s like saying that, well, if I just have one donut today, what’s the harm? Probably not much, but if you have two or three every day in a few months you’ll be like - believe me I speak from experience! So the point here is . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Now, hold on!
MR. CAMAROTA: No, no . . . we’ve been . . . I haven’t made my point now.
MR. WATTENBERG: All right.
MR. CAMAROTA: One out of every eight people in the United States right now is foreign born. And for most U.S. censuses that’s much higher. It was a little bit higher at one point, so there’s a cumulative effect. But in addition to that - staying with the party example - if folks come in, maybe invite more people . . . that is the children that folks have. So it’s not the case that it’s just one person and well, that’s it. No. There’s a cumulative effect of immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: I will give you an even scarier number: 100 percent of the people in the United States are foreign born or descendents of foreign-born people. Everybody in this room is either foreign born or a descendent of immigrants. And the result is the most powerful, most influential, most prosperous nation in the history of the world, under populated by any human standard.
MR. : (Off mike.)
MR. WATTENBERG: May I finish? Excuse me. And by the way, birth rates and fertility rates around the world are going way, way, way down. The demographers have a little phrase. They say, “Uh-oh, Estonia’s going out of business.” Well, you look at the fertility rates and the birth rates in Japan, in South Korea, in Eastern Europe, in Russia and you want to play these projection games you just go out 100 years and the only major growing free power in the world is the one we’re in.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And immigration has nothing to do with that, because without it native-born Americans have the highest fertility of any developing country in the world.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s correct. And it’s -
MR. KRIKORIAN: it has nothing to do with immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Excuse me . . . and it’s below replacement level.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It is right at replacement level.
MR. WATTENBERG: It is somewhat below replacement level. It is somewhat . . . it is 2.08 and 2.11 is replacement level. If you want to play those silly games, turn the crank and you end up with no Americans.
Q: In 7,000 years.
MR. CAMAROTA: Wait though, Ben. U.S. fertility is about to - with or without immigrants - without any immigrants we grow by about 62 million.
MR. WATTENBERG: Temporarily and then it levels off and then in theory it goes down.
MR. CAMAROTA: No, no.
MR. BECK: There were a couple of journalists that were here . . .
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: - a couple of journalists, yeah. If you’re a journalist, raise your hand. If not, don’t.
Q: I have a question on your percentage of workers. The 60 . . . it seems to me the center of your study that this working age population between 15 and 64 years of age - or adjusted if you want to - (inaudible) - ages is going to remain the same. My question is, let’s say we take that 60 percent and let’s say you make that - that’s 60 percent. You have 100 people in 2007. You have 100 people and eight of them are 60 years of age or 64 years of age and two of them are 15 years old. And then you go to 2060 and you have 100 people. Pretend 80 of them are 15 years old and 20 percent are 64 years old. You still have the same percentage of people you do in 2007, but the demographic is totally different. You have eight out of 10 are 15 years old in 2060 and in 2007 you have eight out of . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: In other words, what you’re saying is that different dependency ratios statistically could be the same, but if it’s more young people . . .
Q: (Off mike.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: That’s like . . .
Q: -- has a lot of influence on security and -
MR. CAMAROTA: Agreed. That’s why I calculate the dependency ratio, as you correctly point out. And then beginning in page seven, eight and so forth, I calculate something completely different. I leave off all of the children and just look at the ratio of workers to retirees.
Q: But the thing about the worker to retiree - it’s that same ratio.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, that’s . . .
Q: You could have eight out of those people in that age bracket, okay, include that ’07 - eight of 10 are 60 years of age. Two are 15 years of age. In 2060 you have the reverse, but you still have the same ratio!
MR. CAMAROTA: I’m not sure I exactly understand your question. Are you saying that, look, yes it’s true that the ratio may not change much from immigration, but the average worker might get a little younger because of immigration?
Q: It’s simple. Of that 60 percent that you talk about now . . .
MR. BECK: Nothing is simple in demographics, but go ahead.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let me - I understand what you’re saying. The thing is that Steve explained something differently. What you’re saying is that the table on page 10 . . . the mix of people who are depending on workers to support themselves will change. In other words, you’ll have fewer old people, more young people. But what Steve is saying is that in earlier tables he completely removed the younger people and looked only at workers compared to the elderly. That’s what he’s saying. He looked at it both ways. That’s the point.
Q: I’m talking about the universe of workers between 15 and 64.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Right. Well, to . . .
Q: Okay. In reverse it could be totally different.
(Cross talk.)
MR. CAMAROTA: Oh, yeah. You know, I have done some stuff. It doesn’t change the average age of the United States and it doesn’t really change the average age of the worker.
MR. KRIKORIAN: He has another backgrounder on that.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah. I have another background on that and we could talk about that.
Q: If you’re talking about Social Security and key programs, you know, you could have eight workers supporting two workers in 2060.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It’s not that big a difference is what he’s saying.
MR. CAMAROTA: What I’m trying to explain is that . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: May I say something? May I say something?
MR. CAMAROTA: The answer’s on page seven - in table seven, okay? It just doesn’t change that ratio.
MR. WATTENBERG: May I say something? Look, let me try to explain this as best I can. The United States, as we all know, had a baby boom for 18 years. There were 80 million babies born after World War II. We then went into a baby bust - a birth dearth where the fertility went down from almost four children per woman to about 1.8 children per woman. Now, if you turn the crank on that it means that you are going to have few people - the new cohorts - supporting a lot of people. That’s what the Social Security crunch is all about, all right?
Now, so when you bring in these 60 million people over a long period of time, whose average age is 29, they don’t totally eliminate that shortfall, but they eliminate about 30 percent of it. Now, in the other countries of the world they are facing catastrophes. They are down . . . South Korea and Japan and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have fertility rates and birth rates unimaginable in the history of mankind at about one child per woman. Demographers used to talk about a doubling rate, now they talk about a halving rate. And it’s geometric progression, just like Paul Ehrlich’s kept running up, up, up, up, this goes down geometrically. To reverse that, it’s going to require in a modern country 4.5 children per woman. Now, I don’t think that’s going to happen. It is a potential - I wouldn’t say a disaster, but it is a truly major problem. A de-populated world.
MR. CAMAROTA: But let me just say Ben is completely wrong about the United States. That’s not happening here. Our fertility is two - with or without immigrants. He just seems to be confusing Japan and Eastern Europe with America.
MR. KRIKORIAN: But it’s not immigration that’s making the difference for us. That’s the point. It’s native-born Americans.
MR. WATTENBERG: Native-born Americans are just below the replacement rate. You will have a stable population now - a stable aging population. Is that what we want?
MR. KRIKORIAN: But that’s different. You’re talking about South Korea and Estonia that are going to have decreases in population.
MR. WATTENBERG: Well, last I heard they’re all part of this planet in a globalized world.
Q: Can I ask a question, Steve, about your aging studies? I was . . . your point was that no matter what we’ve got an aging problem.
MR. CAMAROTA: That’s right. We do.
MR. BECK: Not nearly as drastic as . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: That’s right. Not (inaudible) . . .
MR. BECK: But in other words we have aging problem that even if we were to double or triple immigration it would - the aging change would be alleviated very little.
MR. CAMAROTA: Right, very little.
MR. BECK: But, and you said, well, your study shows that by raising the retirement age you can pretty much right . . . you could -
MR. CAMAROTA: Have a much bigger impact - right.
MR. BECK: - we’d get a much bigger impact than having immigration. The thing that it would seem like is missing - another item that’s missing there (inaudible) - that my understanding is is there are right now 54 million working age Americans who are not working - 54 million working age Americans who are either officially unemployed or just not in the labor force.
MR. WATTENBERG: A lot of them are in school.
MR. BECK: They’re . . . that’s right, because they started . . . working age, the Census Bureau does a 16 to 24 age group, but nonetheless they go from 16 to 64 - 54 million. It seems to me that it would take a very small amount of extra effort by business to just attract a little bit higher percentage.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yeah, that’s a good point.
MR. BECK: - of the working age people to compensate for the aging.
MR. WATTENBERG: Roy, look. Take a ride up or down Wisconsin Avenue or Connecticut Avenue or in any major city in America. It is as if the official slogan of the United States went from E Pluribus Unum to Now Hiring. We have 4.5 percent unemployment. Most of that is frictional. Until very recently 6 percent was regarded as full employment. There are people begging employers, begging for jobs and that’s why the employers are in favor of immigration. They want to get more Andy Groves (sp) in.
MR. BECK: But why - the question is why can’t the employers try to attract the 54 million. There are 54 million work age Americans. Even if you take the 16 to 24 out, which really would . . . doesn’t make sense because most of the people between 16 and 24 are available for at least part time and most of them available for - well, all of them are available part time - most of them available full time . . . there’s still about around 40 million working age Americans do not have jobs. Those are people that . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: No, they do not have jobs. They are choosing not to work. They’re in school - excuse me, they’re in school, they’re at home raising children. Anybody who seriously wants a job in America can just come up and down Wisconsin Avenue or Connecticut Avenue or Pennsylvania Avenue or any major city in America and find lots of jobs.
MR. BECK: If they’re willing to work at those wages, those conditions.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s wrap it up here. Everybody is probably more than happy to be accosted by any further questions and if you're a journalist come to the front of the line. But otherwise thanks for coming. Again, the report's online at www.cis.org, and I hope we put on an entertaining show for everybody. Thank you very much.
(Applause.)
(END)
http://www.cis.org/articles/2007/back707transcript.html
Welcome to Immigration New Zealand - Business Migration Branch
The Business Migration Branch (BMB) is located in Wellington, and processes all applications received under the Business Immigration Categories.
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pay into - I think the age of Social Security is now not 67. I think it’s 69, but that’s irrelevant. So they are paying into the Social Security system for 40 years before they get a nickel, and the illegals, they may never get any Social Security. They’re just putting money into your
retirement.
Now, what do we know - the hate du jour these days are Mexicans. What do we know about Mexicans? By the way, Iris was here as an illegal immigrant and was smuggled in by a coyote in the trunk of a car with 15 other people. And it’s hard to believe, but if you remember those telephone booth contests, it’s conceivable. Mexicans today . . . the Department of
Defense has elaborate data structures. They can tell you everything but who’s going to win the war. The greatest percentage of Congressional Medal of Honor winners in American history are Mexican Americans and Mexican immigrants because you don’t have to be a citizen. Every survey that I am familiar with shows that immigrants are more popular . . . (chuckles) they’re
not more popular; they’re more patriotic than Americans generally.
Now, I guess I’ll save . . . I’ve got a lot . . . oh, by the way, every study we have by the Environmental Protection Agency shows that pollution - air, water, land - is going down. If you have . . . if you’re running out of space, we have a very interesting solution in this country.
We build suburbs and we build these nice roads, and if you have crowded traffic, you build some more roads. And we have got 2,900 miles across, from ocean - from sea to shining sea - of places to build things and grow things. And I would suggest that continued population growth on a fairly moderate basis . . . it is, you know, from 1900 to 1910 we took in about as many immigrants as we’re taking in now, with one-fourth the population. And everybody said, “My God, they’re swamping the country.” That was the big word. All these unclean immigrants; they’re swamping the country.
Well, I told you about the Jews. They said the Italians were just absolutely terrible. And then, you know, a generation later, I don’t happen to agree with them, but you end up with a brilliant man named Mario Cuomo. Now, where did that . . . where did that come from? It came through the beneficial effects of . . . of assimilation. And our secret weapon is, in this
global society, is that we know how to assimilate people and the Europeans don’t have a clue.
I think I’ll rest my case for the moment.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Thanks, Ben. I’ll let Steve and Roy take some pot shots, but I just wanted to make the first point - we’ll have short responses, and then we’ll get to Q&A - is that positive anecdotes can’t work unless you’re going to include the negative anecdotes. That’s why we skip anecdotes.
MR. WATTENBERG: No, no. Excuse me, Mark -
MR. KRIKORIAN: I sort of avoid talking about the Newark . . . the Newark murderer, because he doesn’t . . . he’s not . . . he’s not an argument against immigration, just as positive anecdotes aren’t arguments for immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Mark, Mark, you weren’t listening. Anecdotes are the plural of data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: No, actually -
MR. WATTENBERG: The assembled anecdotes equal the data. Assembled anecdotes equal data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Okay, good.
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And - but my point is we don’t have . . . you need to assemble positive and negative anecdotes. If you’re going to do that, and that’s why . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right, and you consolidate . . . you consolidate all of those and you end up with data.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And my point is the Newark murderer isn’t here to be the anecdote, the other end of the anecdote stream, if you will.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s . . . that’s correct, and no native Americans, like the kids who killed the - the Clutter boys, the Clutter family in Iowa, and McVeigh, who blew up the building in Oklahoma City, they were immigrants also. McVeigh is a very . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Oh, but my point is that immigration can’t be either supported or justified by happy stories. You have to consolidate the happy stories all together, as you were saying, and that’s what data is without the . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right. We are . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Without the stories underlying
MR. WATTENBERG: We are . . . we are in agreement on that. You have to consolidate the data, the anecdotes.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Steve, give a short response and then Roy and then we’ll go to Q&A.
MR. WATTENBERG: I’m more than happy to . . . (inaudible) questions.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Oh, okay.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, I mean, I hope, Ben, you’re not saying that anyone who has concerns, like let’s say right now immigration is maybe 15 million or 16 million people come in a decade. If somebody says, “Gee, I think that would be better, for a variety of reasons, if it was 3 (million) or 4 million,” like, say, Barbara Jordan, who was the first African American
congresswoman elected from Texas. She submitted a proposal that would suggest that maybe a moderate pace of immigration. She headed a commission in the 1990s. I hope you’re not suggesting that anybody who is critical of the current level is, you know, wearing a white sheet because you could turn it around and say, look, you know - pick someone, again, as Mark
points out. Look, Osama bin Laden would like a very generous immigration system for the United States. Therefore, because you and he agree on immigration, boom, you’re together. I . . . I think that’s just . . . I don’t find that a valid way of thinking.
Let me also say this about history. If history is to be our guide on immigration, then we should know the history, what happened. World War I came along in 1914 and then restrictive legislation in the ‘20s, and immigration was low for about 50 or 60 years. If the past is to be our
guide, then we need to have low immigration for many years so that we can assimilate the immigrants here. You can’t just say, well, gee, everything worked out well in the past. And it might work out fine now; this study doesn’t say whether it would work out or not. It doesn’t really deal at all with the question of assimilation. But the question is can you talk about the past without talking about the most important event in American immigration history, the reduction and 50 or 60 years of low immigration?
On the question of are there vast tracts of the United States unfilled with people, clearly that’s true, though it’s always important to note that about 10 states account for almost three-fourths of population increase, and only a small fraction of the counties in the United States are absorbing most of the people. And that has been true for many, many years.
So the other question is maybe it would be a good idea to fill up the Dakotas with lots of people. So far, very few people are going to Wyoming and the Dakotas, numerically, anyway, but maybe we’d want to see that number go way up. But I do think it would be important to ask the people there if they would like to live in a state of 5 (million) or 10 million people, and
we should incorporate their perspective on this, as our fellow Americans in this debate. So . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: Roy, do you have anything you want to say?
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: May I ask a question? Why would Osama bin Laden like high immigration into the United States? So that Arab kids can learn American views and values and sing rock and roll and - (laughter) - and all that kind of stuff? I mean, just explain that to me.
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, okay.
MR. WATTENBERG: I’m just . . . maybe there’s something I don’t get.
MR. CAMAROTA: Because if he . . . sure. He would . . . we both agree he’d like to attack the United States on our own soil, right?
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s correct.
MR. CAMAROTA: It’s hard to do from a cave in Afghanistan, right?
MR. WATTENBERG: Yes.
MR. CAMAROTA: So he’s got to get somebody here.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s right.
MR. CAMAROTA: If the Mexican border is easy to cross, that’s helpful. If it’s easy to get a student visa in Riyadh, that’s helpful. It doesn’t mean that everybody who crosses the Mexican border is somehow working for Osama bin Laden, but you asked why would he want open immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Steve - Steve, how many terrorists attacks have we had since 9/11 in America?
MR. CAMAROTA: We’ve had about 13 or 14 failed plots.
MR. WATTENBERG: How many successful terrorist attacks did we have in the United States?
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, look. We haven’t had any.
MR. WATTENBERG: Thank you.
MR. CAMAROTA: So all is well. Is that the idea? We’re perfectly safe? Is . . . okay. Well, I mean it does sound a little like the guy who jumps off the 10-story building and on the way down, people say, “How’s it going?” And he says, “Hey, so far, so good.” (Laughter.) But in any event, maybe we should take questions.
MR. WATTENBERG: Just one moment.
What country did McHugh come from before he attacked --
MR. KRIKORIAN: McVeigh, you mean.
MR. WATTENBERG: What was the . . . his immigration status? Did he come in illegally? He lived in Buffalo and he was a former Marine.
MR. CAMAROTA: I think you mean Timothy McVeigh. He certainly was born in the United States, so because we have native-born kooks and terrorists and murderers, we shouldn’t try to keep people who might do that out? I don’t understand. I certainly wouldn’t make the case for immigration one way or the other based on anecdote. Mohammed Atta, who lived in the United States for a number of years and led the attack of 9/11 seems to me no more illustrative or can tell us about . . . as much about immigration as Andy Grove, who founded or built Intel into a multinational corporation. I would prefer to talk about what the actual data that we have about immigration and immigrants more generally.
MR. WATTENBERG: May we agree that the collection of anecdotes equal data? Is that fair to say?
MR. : No.
MR. WATTENBERG: Why not?
MR. CAMAROTA: I’m . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Please explain it.
MR. : Unless there’s some system when you collect data . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: Maybe this is a good segue for a question. You ask the first question.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s take regular questions from the audience.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: Let me listen. I want to hear it.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, go ahead. Is there a microphone he’s supposed to have?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Okay. Well, here. Let’s just go ahead.
Q: Since the business community is generally pro-immigration, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, they want to . . . their support . . . the business community funding a program for increased immigration, what should this data, using this data, what would you say to the business community . . . Chamber of Commerce - the U.S. Chamber of Commerce specifically?
MR. CAMAROTA: One thing I can say is that immigration doesn’t really change the ratio of workers to retirees under any immigration scenario. It increases the number of retirees just like it increases the number of workers. But on the question of . . . it depends on what members the Chamber of Commerce would like. Would they like to live in a country with a much, a much more densely settled country with a much larger population? If they would like that, then they have a right as political actors to vote for that, I suppose. And they have a . . . you know, I can’t think of any reason why that wouldn’t be something that . . . the question for the country is . . . or maybe put it this way. These projections tell us where we’re headed as a country. The question we have to answer is, “Do we want to go there?”
MR. BECK: I . . . one thing about the study that is so depressing to me is actually pretty good news for the business community, and that is you can cut all immigration off and there’s going to be some continued growth throughout the century. So this . . . we’re no longer in a situation where we once were, where there was a possibility of actually having stability or of even having a little . . . a small decline in size of the population. The business community has to know that they don’t need immigration for growth. It’s all home. It can all be homegrown basically from the immigrants that have come over the last 30 years and their descendants.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And just one thing I’d quickly add to that is that the . . . in other words, what should the Chamber of Commerce take from this? It’s that their policy, their . . . essentially, their support for a social engineering program to supplement the mistakes that Americans are supposedly making in not having enough kids actually works. So in other words, immigration does what they want. It does, in fact, artificially increase the population in a way that Americans, making their own private decisions, wouldn’t do. The question is, as Steve said, is that a good idea or not?
MR. WATTENBERG: Excuse me for a minute.
You know, you’re using as a pejorative social engineering.
MR. CAMEROTA: Yeah.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: - a pejorative.
MR. WATTENBERG: Yeah.
Do you think the Land-Grant College Act by . . . initiated by Abraham Lincoln was social engineering? Do you think that the establishment of the railroads was social engineering? Do you think that the establishment of the interstate highway system was social engineering? Do you think that Medicare was social engineering? I . . . are you -
MR. KRIKORIAN: Medicare, yes.
MR. WATTENBERG: And you think that’s bad?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Social engineering is, generally speaking, in a free society a problem. Yes, it’s a bad thing.
MR. WATTENBERG: Was the establishment of Medicare a bad thing?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yeah. I’d have to say yes. Social Security likewise. The question is not, though, do we get rid of it. We have it now.
MR. WATTENBERG: Let us establish that you are in a minority of about 5 percent or 3 percent of the American people, just like Pat Buchanan.
MR. KRIKORIAN: No, I mean, probably not actually . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Now.
MR. KRIKORIAN: - Because I don’t want to get rid of it. I’m saying that if you had to start from scratch . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay, if you want.
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: Relevant to this issue . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Okay. Aside from . . .
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: Aside from Ron Paul, tell me the name of an elected official in this town who’s against Social Security and plans to run for office.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Against what?
MR. WATTENBERG: Against . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: In 1937 against, or against it today?
MR. WATTENBERG: No, excuse me. Today. Who would like to repeal Social Security?
MR. KRIKORIAN: Nobody including me.
MR. WATTENBERG: I thought you said it was a bad thing.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It was a bad thing. And now we have it. Now we’re stuck with it.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: But it doesn’t really matter . . . it doesn’t matter . . .
MR. BECK: You could ask the same question.
MR. WATTENBERG: It’s the most popular program in America.
MR. BECK: But how many candidates would run for office today - and there are some. There are some. But how many candidates running for Congress - for Senate - even for president. Even though it’s . . . and they would actually run on a platform that “We are going to basically increase the addition. We like the addition of 160 million people in the next 50 years, and we’re going to increase that.” There are some, but it’s very few. And yet they push those policies. They run on high immigration policies, but they do not dwell with the people saying, “This is what we’re offering you.” This is the scenario, and I think that’s . . . you know, Ben, it’s interesting because you and I met . . . you didn’t meet me, but I met you (laughter.)
MR. WATTENBERG: I suspect it was mutual.
MR. BECK: No, I met you at a USO club in New York City in Look Magazine back in 1971. (Laughter.) I was there waiting for some free tickets to see a concert or a play before being shipped out and I read Look Magazine and I read your comments on the 1970 Census. So I’ve been . . . you and I have been on opposite sides on this scenario for America and . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: We can stipulate that.
MR. BECK: - and I congratulate you. For my entire adult life, I’ve been watching you win. So you . . . your side has done a very good job in terms of the politics of it.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s take another question.
MR. WATTENBERG: Now wait a minute . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: No.
MR. WATTENBERG: No, just one second. You said, I think, that every American candidate for president is . . .
MR. BECK: I said most.
MR. WATTENBERG: - most are not for restricting immigration. Is that what you’re saying?
MR. BECK: They’re for increasing immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Right. And now you just said that nobody would run that way. Would you . . .
MR. BECK: But they don’t run on a policy saying, “We’re going to add more than 160 million people.” They don’t - they do not claim that adding that number of people - they don’t think that’s a good thing to run on. They try to run on increasing immigration.
(Cross talk.)
MR. WATTENBERG: You mean they have this big secret from the American people - (inaudible) - that you can bring in immigrants and it won’t add to the population.
MR. BECK: It is an amazing secret.
MR. WATTENBERG: Don’t tell me that. (Laughter.)
MR. CAMAROTA: Well, I would say, having studied the population issue for a long time . . . yeah, whenever this story comes to sprawl or school-age population and we all know as demographers the critical impact of immigration, but it never comes up in the news article. It’s astonishing, but it’s generally something not discussed, rightly or wrongly.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yes, sir.
Q: Yes. I have two questions. One is a quick one and the other one is related to it. One is you said you were estimating 1.6 million coming in -
MR. CAMAROTA: Right.
Q: - per year, and the short question is do you consider it possible undercount or underenumeration of that? And the second part of that is just yesterday, I was speaking with the chief of the Immigration Statistics Staff at the Census Bureau. He told me quite directly the Census Bureau is unable to directly estimate coverage of the foreign born, and at the most we could maybe do it indirectly, but then we’re not really sure.
And the follow-up question on that is: suppose we have another scenario like the 2000 census where the Census Bureau just flat out misses a bunch of people because it has no means of evaluating how good the coverage is of the foreign born. And what does that do to the scenario, which is not to detract from your . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: Right. Well, the current population survey and most census surveys show about 1.5 million new arrivals - some research indicates about a 5 percent undercount of the total foreign born - and that’s how you get to 1.6 [million] new arrivals. If you take deaths out and then look at the growth, you can estimate net immigration - how many people are going home. But you’re right, it could be higher and then all these population numbers would be correspondingly higher.
MR. WATTENBERG: May I point something out? One-point-six million sounds like a lot of people. That’s the numerator. The denominator is 305 million, okay? Now, that is like going into a big cocktail party in the Waldorf-Astoria, there are 600 people there, the ice cubes are clinking, they’re eating those little frankfurters and everybody’s talking and having a good time and in walks one couple from Pakistan. And you turn to Pat Buchanan and say, “Uh oh, there goes the neighborhood.” It’s two people. That’s what it - that’s what we’re talking about. We’re talking about two people. We’re talking about two people in a room of 600. That’s what these numbers mean.
MR. CAMAROTA: Let me say one thing: That’s not what the numbers mean. What the numbers mean is actually the cumulative effect of immigration. It’s like saying that, well, if I just have one donut today, what’s the harm? Probably not much, but if you have two or three every day in a few months you’ll be like - believe me I speak from experience! So the point here is . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: Now, hold on!
MR. CAMAROTA: No, no . . . we’ve been . . . I haven’t made my point now.
MR. WATTENBERG: All right.
MR. CAMAROTA: One out of every eight people in the United States right now is foreign born. And for most U.S. censuses that’s much higher. It was a little bit higher at one point, so there’s a cumulative effect. But in addition to that - staying with the party example - if folks come in, maybe invite more people . . . that is the children that folks have. So it’s not the case that it’s just one person and well, that’s it. No. There’s a cumulative effect of immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: I will give you an even scarier number: 100 percent of the people in the United States are foreign born or descendents of foreign-born people. Everybody in this room is either foreign born or a descendent of immigrants. And the result is the most powerful, most influential, most prosperous nation in the history of the world, under populated by any human standard.
MR. : (Off mike.)
MR. WATTENBERG: May I finish? Excuse me. And by the way, birth rates and fertility rates around the world are going way, way, way down. The demographers have a little phrase. They say, “Uh-oh, Estonia’s going out of business.” Well, you look at the fertility rates and the birth rates in Japan, in South Korea, in Eastern Europe, in Russia and you want to play these projection games you just go out 100 years and the only major growing free power in the world is the one we’re in.
MR. KRIKORIAN: And immigration has nothing to do with that, because without it native-born Americans have the highest fertility of any developing country in the world.
MR. WATTENBERG: That’s correct. And it’s -
MR. KRIKORIAN: it has nothing to do with immigration.
MR. WATTENBERG: Excuse me . . . and it’s below replacement level.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It is right at replacement level.
MR. WATTENBERG: It is somewhat below replacement level. It is somewhat . . . it is 2.08 and 2.11 is replacement level. If you want to play those silly games, turn the crank and you end up with no Americans.
Q: In 7,000 years.
MR. CAMAROTA: Wait though, Ben. U.S. fertility is about to - with or without immigrants - without any immigrants we grow by about 62 million.
MR. WATTENBERG: Temporarily and then it levels off and then in theory it goes down.
MR. CAMAROTA: No, no.
MR. BECK: There were a couple of journalists that were here . . .
(Cross talk.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: - a couple of journalists, yeah. If you’re a journalist, raise your hand. If not, don’t.
Q: I have a question on your percentage of workers. The 60 . . . it seems to me the center of your study that this working age population between 15 and 64 years of age - or adjusted if you want to - (inaudible) - ages is going to remain the same. My question is, let’s say we take that 60 percent and let’s say you make that - that’s 60 percent. You have 100 people in 2007. You have 100 people and eight of them are 60 years of age or 64 years of age and two of them are 15 years old. And then you go to 2060 and you have 100 people. Pretend 80 of them are 15 years old and 20 percent are 64 years old. You still have the same percentage of people you do in 2007, but the demographic is totally different. You have eight out of 10 are 15 years old in 2060 and in 2007 you have eight out of . . .
MR. KRIKORIAN: In other words, what you’re saying is that different dependency ratios statistically could be the same, but if it’s more young people . . .
Q: (Off mike.)
MR. KRIKORIAN: That’s like . . .
Q: -- has a lot of influence on security and -
MR. CAMAROTA: Agreed. That’s why I calculate the dependency ratio, as you correctly point out. And then beginning in page seven, eight and so forth, I calculate something completely different. I leave off all of the children and just look at the ratio of workers to retirees.
Q: But the thing about the worker to retiree - it’s that same ratio.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah, that’s . . .
Q: You could have eight out of those people in that age bracket, okay, include that ’07 - eight of 10 are 60 years of age. Two are 15 years of age. In 2060 you have the reverse, but you still have the same ratio!
MR. CAMAROTA: I’m not sure I exactly understand your question. Are you saying that, look, yes it’s true that the ratio may not change much from immigration, but the average worker might get a little younger because of immigration?
Q: It’s simple. Of that 60 percent that you talk about now . . .
MR. BECK: Nothing is simple in demographics, but go ahead.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let me - I understand what you’re saying. The thing is that Steve explained something differently. What you’re saying is that the table on page 10 . . . the mix of people who are depending on workers to support themselves will change. In other words, you’ll have fewer old people, more young people. But what Steve is saying is that in earlier tables he completely removed the younger people and looked only at workers compared to the elderly. That’s what he’s saying. He looked at it both ways. That’s the point.
Q: I’m talking about the universe of workers between 15 and 64.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Right. Well, to . . .
Q: Okay. In reverse it could be totally different.
(Cross talk.)
MR. CAMAROTA: Oh, yeah. You know, I have done some stuff. It doesn’t change the average age of the United States and it doesn’t really change the average age of the worker.
MR. KRIKORIAN: He has another backgrounder on that.
MR. CAMAROTA: Yeah. I have another background on that and we could talk about that.
Q: If you’re talking about Social Security and key programs, you know, you could have eight workers supporting two workers in 2060.
MR. KRIKORIAN: It’s not that big a difference is what he’s saying.
MR. CAMAROTA: What I’m trying to explain is that . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: May I say something? May I say something?
MR. CAMAROTA: The answer’s on page seven - in table seven, okay? It just doesn’t change that ratio.
MR. WATTENBERG: May I say something? Look, let me try to explain this as best I can. The United States, as we all know, had a baby boom for 18 years. There were 80 million babies born after World War II. We then went into a baby bust - a birth dearth where the fertility went down from almost four children per woman to about 1.8 children per woman. Now, if you turn the crank on that it means that you are going to have few people - the new cohorts - supporting a lot of people. That’s what the Social Security crunch is all about, all right?
Now, so when you bring in these 60 million people over a long period of time, whose average age is 29, they don’t totally eliminate that shortfall, but they eliminate about 30 percent of it. Now, in the other countries of the world they are facing catastrophes. They are down . . . South Korea and Japan and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have fertility rates and birth rates unimaginable in the history of mankind at about one child per woman. Demographers used to talk about a doubling rate, now they talk about a halving rate. And it’s geometric progression, just like Paul Ehrlich’s kept running up, up, up, up, this goes down geometrically. To reverse that, it’s going to require in a modern country 4.5 children per woman. Now, I don’t think that’s going to happen. It is a potential - I wouldn’t say a disaster, but it is a truly major problem. A de-populated world.
MR. CAMAROTA: But let me just say Ben is completely wrong about the United States. That’s not happening here. Our fertility is two - with or without immigrants. He just seems to be confusing Japan and Eastern Europe with America.
MR. KRIKORIAN: But it’s not immigration that’s making the difference for us. That’s the point. It’s native-born Americans.
MR. WATTENBERG: Native-born Americans are just below the replacement rate. You will have a stable population now - a stable aging population. Is that what we want?
MR. KRIKORIAN: But that’s different. You’re talking about South Korea and Estonia that are going to have decreases in population.
MR. WATTENBERG: Well, last I heard they’re all part of this planet in a globalized world.
Q: Can I ask a question, Steve, about your aging studies? I was . . . your point was that no matter what we’ve got an aging problem.
MR. CAMAROTA: That’s right. We do.
MR. BECK: Not nearly as drastic as . . .
MR. CAMAROTA: That’s right. Not (inaudible) . . .
MR. BECK: But in other words we have aging problem that even if we were to double or triple immigration it would - the aging change would be alleviated very little.
MR. CAMAROTA: Right, very little.
MR. BECK: But, and you said, well, your study shows that by raising the retirement age you can pretty much right . . . you could -
MR. CAMAROTA: Have a much bigger impact - right.
MR. BECK: - we’d get a much bigger impact than having immigration. The thing that it would seem like is missing - another item that’s missing there (inaudible) - that my understanding is is there are right now 54 million working age Americans who are not working - 54 million working age Americans who are either officially unemployed or just not in the labor force.
MR. WATTENBERG: A lot of them are in school.
MR. BECK: They’re . . . that’s right, because they started . . . working age, the Census Bureau does a 16 to 24 age group, but nonetheless they go from 16 to 64 - 54 million. It seems to me that it would take a very small amount of extra effort by business to just attract a little bit higher percentage.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Yeah, that’s a good point.
MR. BECK: - of the working age people to compensate for the aging.
MR. WATTENBERG: Roy, look. Take a ride up or down Wisconsin Avenue or Connecticut Avenue or in any major city in America. It is as if the official slogan of the United States went from E Pluribus Unum to Now Hiring. We have 4.5 percent unemployment. Most of that is frictional. Until very recently 6 percent was regarded as full employment. There are people begging employers, begging for jobs and that’s why the employers are in favor of immigration. They want to get more Andy Groves (sp) in.
MR. BECK: But why - the question is why can’t the employers try to attract the 54 million. There are 54 million work age Americans. Even if you take the 16 to 24 out, which really would . . . doesn’t make sense because most of the people between 16 and 24 are available for at least part time and most of them available for - well, all of them are available part time - most of them available full time . . . there’s still about around 40 million working age Americans do not have jobs. Those are people that . . .
MR. WATTENBERG: No, they do not have jobs. They are choosing not to work. They’re in school - excuse me, they’re in school, they’re at home raising children. Anybody who seriously wants a job in America can just come up and down Wisconsin Avenue or Connecticut Avenue or Pennsylvania Avenue or any major city in America and find lots of jobs.
MR. BECK: If they’re willing to work at those wages, those conditions.
MR. KRIKORIAN: Let’s wrap it up here. Everybody is probably more than happy to be accosted by any further questions and if you're a journalist come to the front of the line. But otherwise thanks for coming. Again, the report's online at www.cis.org, and I hope we put on an entertaining show for everybody. Thank you very much.
(Applause.)
(END)
http://www.cis.org/articles/2007/back707transcript.html
Welcome to Immigration New Zealand - Business Migration Branch
The Business Migration Branch (BMB) is located in Wellington, and processes all applications received under the Business Immigration Categories.
• Long Term Business Visa (LTBV) - A three-year Work Visa to provide sufficient time to move to New Zealand and commence your business prior to applying for New Zealand Residence.
• Entrepreneur (Residence) - After running your business for two years you may be eligible to apply for New Zealand Residence as an entrepreneur.
• Investor (Residence) - A New Zealand Residence category for business people who are looking to reside and invest in New Zealand, without necessarily starting a business.
• Employer Accreditation - New Zealand Employers can apply to the Business Migration Branch to gain accreditation to offer employment to overseas workers.
• Residence from Work - If an employee has been working in New Zealand for at least two years for an accredited employer, they can apply under our Work to Residence Category.
If you are interested in general information on starting a business or investing in New Zealand, or links to other useful websites, you may wish to go to our useful links page.
http://www.immigration.govt.nz/branch/BMBHome/
Business the New Zealand way
There are three main ways of doing business in New Zealand - as a sole trader, in a partnership, or as a company. Use our links to learn more about operating a business and business conduct in New Zealand.
Sole traders
A sole trader owns all the assets of the business and is solely responsible for all the business's risks, obligations and debts.
Business partnerships
If you want to operate a business with other people in New Zealand, you can establish an ordinary or special partnership under the guidelines established by the Partnership Act 1908.
Companies
The Companies Act 1993 provides the basic rules for establishing and operating a company in New Zealand. Any person may, either alone or together with another person, apply for registration of a company.
What constitutes a company?
• A company must have:
o a registered name
o one or more shares
o one or more shareholders with limited or unlimited liability for the obligations of the company
o one or more directors
• A company may have a constitution and, in certain circumstances, a constitution can be adopted to alter the Act's rules to suit a company's individual requirements.
• A company is a legal entity in its own right, separate from its shareholders, and continues in existence until it is removed from the Companies Register.
• A company may enter into contracts with its shareholders.
• Under the Financial Reporting Act 1993 only companies that are 'reporting entities' need to prepare and register financial statements. Reporting entities are companies that issue shares, overseas companies, subsidiary companies or companies with at least one subsidiary.
• Companies with assets valued at $450,000 or with a turnover of $1 million must also file financial statements.
• Companies that offer securities, including shares, to the public, and overseas-owned or overseas-controlled companies, must be independently audited.
• Unless otherwise agreed, contracts entered into by the company do not impose liability on individual members.
• A company has access to the Australian market under CER (Australia New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement).
Freephone: 0508 266 726 (O508 COMPANIES)
Visit New Zealand Companies Office
http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/settlementpack/Business/BusinessTheNZWay/