Attacking Iran is insane.
Go read this, on why attacking Iran would be absolute insanity. The most worrying statement, I think, is left 'til the end:Thus their strategy to threaten insanity, as a diplomatic gambit. "Do as we tell us, or we'll do something really crazy. Sure, we'll get hurt, but you'll be destroyed. Be reasonable, because we won't be". It's a well known, if high-risk, strategy in game theory. And it's made credible, paradoxically, by the mess in Iraq: "see how stupid we can be - and you better believe we are ready to do it again".
One thing I'd take issue with - I hear again, and again, that uranium enrichment only makes sense for Iran in a military context. I don't buy this - what the Iranians have said ties in perfectly with the idea of peak oil and a forthcoming oil shock in the next 10-15 years. The Iranians have vast Uranium deposits. Sure, refining and enriching to the point you can use it in power stations makes no sense now, but just wait 'til the world is thirsting for energy, and the oil is $200 a barrel. No one will care that Iran defied the US and UN then - they'll just want the fuel for the nuclear power stations they're building. I think Iran is gambling on the long run. Their Ayatollah has proclaimed in a Fatwa that nuclear weapons are unIslamic. They don't fuck around with these Fatwa things - if he says it, there's every reason to believe it to be government policy. Those two things are very good reasons to take Iran at its word.
One thing I'd take issue with - I hear again, and again, that uranium enrichment only makes sense for Iran in a military context. I don't buy this - what the Iranians have said ties in perfectly with the idea of peak oil and a forthcoming oil shock in the next 10-15 years. The Iranians have vast Uranium deposits. Sure, refining and enriching to the point you can use it in power stations makes no sense now, but just wait 'til the world is thirsting for energy, and the oil is $200 a barrel. No one will care that Iran defied the US and UN then - they'll just want the fuel for the nuclear power stations they're building. I think Iran is gambling on the long run. Their Ayatollah has proclaimed in a Fatwa that nuclear weapons are unIslamic. They don't fuck around with these Fatwa things - if he says it, there's every reason to believe it to be government policy. Those two things are very good reasons to take Iran at its word.