Oscar! Oscar! Who Will Win?
Tonight is Oscar night. Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will be teamed up as hosts (a bit ironically, since I think they had two scenes at most together in It's Complicated). It will be produced by director/choreographer Adam Shankman. The good news--he directed Hairspray (the musical version). Bad news--the rest of his filmography (Bedtime Stores, The Pacifier, Cheaper By the Dozen 2). It'll be hard to top last year's ceremony, and I'm still wondering how they'll incorporate all 10 Best Picture nominations into the show (I still think it's a bad idea to have doubled the category). Unfortunately, because of curling, I'll have to start the show late. I still plan on blogging this year, but it will be live-to-tape-from-DVR blogging.
Anyway, here are my predictions of who is going to win this year.
BEST PICTURE: The Hurt Locker
Despite having ten nominees, this year's race is down to two movies. It's hard to find two films as diverse as Avatar and The Hurt Locker. One is a realistic, low-budget movie taking place this decade, while the other is the most expensive film ever made, taking place on a far-away fantasy planet. The box office results couldn't be more different either. Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time. Hurt Locker has made less than $13 million domestic. If Locker wins, it will be the lowest grossing Best Picture winner since accurate records have been kept in the late 70s. In fact, if IMDB is to be believed, it might be the lowest grossing Best Picture winner since Marty--in 1955. Still, Hurt Locker has been steadily gaining momentum since the nominations came out last month. I expect the final vote to be close (not that we'll ever know for sure), but I expect the Iraq War drama to win.
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges--Crazy Heart
Even though Bridges, playing a washed-up country singer, was great in the role, this is also somewhat of a career award, as he has gone home empty-handed for his four previous nominations. Primarily, some people seem to think this is a belated Oscar for his work as The Dude (which Bad Blake bears some resemblance to). Of the other nominees, probably the one who is most likely to pull an upset is Colin Firth as a suicidal gay college professor in A Single Man, but that's extremely unlikely.
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock--The Blind Side
All hail the power of The Blind Side! Back in December, Bullock was listed as merely a possibility to be nominated. Now, she's the front runner for her work as a wealthy Memphis housewife who takes in a poor homeless black teenager. Her main competition is Meryl Streep as Julia Child in Julie & Julia. There has been a rash of articles lately about how Streep hasn't won since 1982 (if she loses tonight, it will be her 12th straight unsuccessful nomination). Frankly, I see this as a toss-up, but I think Bullock has the momentum.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz--Inglourious Basterds
Waltz's performance as a courteous Nazi who never ceased being polite and charming even when he was ordering the execution of hiding Jews or strangling a traitor to death was easily the most memorable thing from Tarintino's WWII extravaganza--even more than film's complete rewriting of history. The Austrian had a grip on the award since the film came out in August (and even before that--since the film was released at Cannes), and will easily win tonight.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique--Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Before this film debuted at Cannes last year, Mo'Nique was known primarily as a stand-up and a performer in a bunch of low-brow comedies. No one was prepared for her jaw-dropping performance as one of the most evil mothers in cinematic history. The amazing thing about her performance as Mary Jones is that, as horrible as she is, she never takes the character over the top to caricature, and, with her final speech, she allows the humanity within her to be seen--not enough to allow us to forgive her, but enough for us to understand her thought process in making such horrible decisions. It's a stunning performance, and she is a shoo-in to win.
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow--The Hurt Locker
The theme of this year's Oscars seem to be winners you never would have expected. Bigelow, who has kicked around for years as an above-average action movie director, falls into that category. The ex-wife of fellow nominee James Cameron, I don't think anyone was expecting much out of her low-budged Iraq War drama. Nor do I think anyone expected that, when a woman finally broke through and won the Director Oscar, it would be her. But Bigelow will make history tonight as the first female Best Director.
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Cinematography: Avatar
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Original Score: Avatar
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Best Sound: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet (France)
Best Documentary: Food, Inc.
Best Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Live-Action Short: The Door
Anyway, here are my predictions of who is going to win this year.
BEST PICTURE: The Hurt Locker
Despite having ten nominees, this year's race is down to two movies. It's hard to find two films as diverse as Avatar and The Hurt Locker. One is a realistic, low-budget movie taking place this decade, while the other is the most expensive film ever made, taking place on a far-away fantasy planet. The box office results couldn't be more different either. Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time. Hurt Locker has made less than $13 million domestic. If Locker wins, it will be the lowest grossing Best Picture winner since accurate records have been kept in the late 70s. In fact, if IMDB is to be believed, it might be the lowest grossing Best Picture winner since Marty--in 1955. Still, Hurt Locker has been steadily gaining momentum since the nominations came out last month. I expect the final vote to be close (not that we'll ever know for sure), but I expect the Iraq War drama to win.
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges--Crazy Heart
Even though Bridges, playing a washed-up country singer, was great in the role, this is also somewhat of a career award, as he has gone home empty-handed for his four previous nominations. Primarily, some people seem to think this is a belated Oscar for his work as The Dude (which Bad Blake bears some resemblance to). Of the other nominees, probably the one who is most likely to pull an upset is Colin Firth as a suicidal gay college professor in A Single Man, but that's extremely unlikely.
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock--The Blind Side
All hail the power of The Blind Side! Back in December, Bullock was listed as merely a possibility to be nominated. Now, she's the front runner for her work as a wealthy Memphis housewife who takes in a poor homeless black teenager. Her main competition is Meryl Streep as Julia Child in Julie & Julia. There has been a rash of articles lately about how Streep hasn't won since 1982 (if she loses tonight, it will be her 12th straight unsuccessful nomination). Frankly, I see this as a toss-up, but I think Bullock has the momentum.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz--Inglourious Basterds
Waltz's performance as a courteous Nazi who never ceased being polite and charming even when he was ordering the execution of hiding Jews or strangling a traitor to death was easily the most memorable thing from Tarintino's WWII extravaganza--even more than film's complete rewriting of history. The Austrian had a grip on the award since the film came out in August (and even before that--since the film was released at Cannes), and will easily win tonight.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique--Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Before this film debuted at Cannes last year, Mo'Nique was known primarily as a stand-up and a performer in a bunch of low-brow comedies. No one was prepared for her jaw-dropping performance as one of the most evil mothers in cinematic history. The amazing thing about her performance as Mary Jones is that, as horrible as she is, she never takes the character over the top to caricature, and, with her final speech, she allows the humanity within her to be seen--not enough to allow us to forgive her, but enough for us to understand her thought process in making such horrible decisions. It's a stunning performance, and she is a shoo-in to win.
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow--The Hurt Locker
The theme of this year's Oscars seem to be winners you never would have expected. Bigelow, who has kicked around for years as an above-average action movie director, falls into that category. The ex-wife of fellow nominee James Cameron, I don't think anyone was expecting much out of her low-budged Iraq War drama. Nor do I think anyone expected that, when a woman finally broke through and won the Director Oscar, it would be her. But Bigelow will make history tonight as the first female Best Director.
Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Cinematography: Avatar
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Original Score: Avatar
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Best Sound: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet (France)
Best Documentary: Food, Inc.
Best Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Live-Action Short: The Door