Oscar Predictions 2010
Blame it on The Reader.
Last year, nearly every pundit expected that The Dark Knight would be one of the five nominees for Best Picture at the Oscars. After all, it was not only the highest-grossing films of 2008, it was also one of the most critically acclaimed (Rotten Tomatoes rating: 94% positive). Instead, its slot was taken by The Reader, which was much less liked (Rotten Tomatoes: 61%), but was about Serious Issues, namely Germany's collective guilt about the Holocaust.
In response, the Academy made the very surprising decision over the summer to double the number of films nominated for Best Picture. This year, there will be 10 Best Picture nominees for the first time since 1943. Every other category will stay at 5 nominees. No one is quite sure how this greatly expanded field will play on the actual Oscar night, but even though more popular films are now guaranteed a spot at a table, the already sometimes tedious ceremony is pretty much guaranteed to be even more tedious.
The nominees will be announced Tuesday morning, and as always, here are my guesses as to who will make the shortlist, along with one alternate. I've also provided commentary on Picture, Director, and the acting categories.
Best Picture of the Year:
Avatar
Crazy Heart
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Alt: Invictus
Oddly, this category would have been much easier to call if there were still only five nominees. Avatar, Hurt Locker, Precious, and Up in the Air would have been nominees for sure, with the 5th slot going to either Inglourious or Up. Now, all six are locks, but there are literally 12 different movies that could make up the last four slots. An Education is probably the closest to a lock of those 12, and I think Jeff Bridges's performance will help Crazy Heart make the Final Five Terrific Ten. The Academy loves the Coens, so A Serious Man seems like a good bet as well. For the final slot, I had my choice of two South African dramas about the effects of apartheid. Clint Eastwood's Invictus is clearly Oscar bait, but I'm going out on a limb, and guessing they nominate the fun, audience-pleasing one, District 9.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges Crazy Heart
George Clooney Up in the Air
Colin Firth A Single Man
Morgan Freeman Invictus
Jeremy Renner The Hurt Locker
Alt: Matt Damon The Informant!
The Academy might as well go ahead and engrave Bridges's Oscar, but he does have to go through the preliminary step of actually getting nominated. That shouldn't be a problem. It won't be a problem for Clooney, Firth, or Freeman either. Any of these men being left off the list would be a major eyebrow-raiser. For the fifth slot, critical acclaim seems to have settled onto the little-known Renner, as the reckless bomb squad leader in The Hurt Locker. Should he fail to make the cut, my money is on Damon's hysterical work as a less-than-truthful corporate executive to make the list.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Sandra Bullock The Blind Side
Helen Mirren The Last Station
Carey Mulligan An Education
Gabourey Sidibe Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
Meryl Streep Julie & Julia
Alt: Emily Blunt The Young Victoria
In a rather thin year for actresses, Bullock, Streep, and Mulligan are locks. Hardly anyone has seen The Last Station, but Helen Murren is Helen Murren, so that should get her a nod. And for holding her own against Mo'Nique, newcomer Sidibe should get a nod for her screen debut. The pickings are thin for alternates, but Emily Blunt as the young (Queen) Victoria seems like a good bet.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Woody Harrelson The Messenger
Alfred Molina An Education
Christopher Plummer The Last Station
Stanley Tucci The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz Inglourious Basterds
Alt: Matt Damon Invictus
The supporting ranks of both sexes were rather thin this year, which is why I'm prepared to say that Waltz, Tucci, Plummer, and Harrelson are virtual certainties, even if no one has seen the latter two's films. Alfred Molina is the best of a thin lot for the fifth nomination, over Damon, whose buzz has faded along with Invictus's box-office.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Penelope Cruz Nine
Vera Farmiga Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick Up in the Air
Mo’Nique Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire
Julianne Moore A Single Man
Alt: Sigourney Weaver Avatar
Another thin lot, though everyone will be playing second fiddle to Mo'Nique's evil mother (and yes, in a few weeks, we will be saying "Academy Award Winner Mo'Nique"). The Up in the Air girls are locks, as is Moore. Even though Nine crashed and burned, defending Supporting Actress Cruz has a good shot at another nod. If she doesn't get it, call it a hunch, but I think Weaver's righteously angry scientist might slip in as the 5th nominee.
Best Achievement in Directing:
Avatar James Cameron
The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow
Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino
Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire Lee Daniels
Up in the Air Jason Reitman
Alt: An Education Lone Scherfig
With ten Picture nominees, it's pretty much a guarantee that all five nominated directors will see their films also nominated for the top Oscar. And really, I'm having trouble thinking of any serious contenders outside this group.
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
An Education Nick Hornby
Fantastic Mr. Fox Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach
Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire Geoffrey Fletcher
A Single Man Tom Ford, David Scearce
Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner
Alt: Crazy Heart Scott Cooper
Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
(500) Days of Summer Scott Neustatder, Michael H. Weber
The Hurt Locker Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino
A Serious Man Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up Pete Docter, Bob Peterson
Alt: Avatar James Cameron
Best Achievement in Animated Features:
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up
Alt: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Best Foreign Language Film:
Ajami Israel
The Milk of Sorrow Peru
A Prophet France
El Secreto de Sus Ojos Argentina
The White Ribbon Germany
Alt: Winter in Wartime The Netherlands
Best Documentary:
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Living in Emergency: Stories of Doctors Without Borders
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Alt: Valentino: The Last Emperor
Best Achievement in Art Direction:
Avatar Rick Carter, Richard Stromberg
The Hurt Locker Karl Juliusson
Inglourious Basterds David Wasco
A Serious Man Jess Goncher
Where the Wild Things Are K.K. Barrett
Alt: The Lovely Bones Naomi Shohan
Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Avatar Mauro Fiore
The Hurt Locker Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds Robert Richardson
Where the Wild Things Are Lance Acord
The White Ribbon Christian Berger
Alt: Nine Dion Beebe
Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Avatar Mayes C. Rubeo, Deborah Lynn Scott
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Monique Prudhomme
Julie & Julia Ann Roth
Sherlock Holmes Jenny Beavan
The Young Victoria Sandy Powell
Alt: Nine Colleen Atwood
Best Achievement in Film Editing:
Avatar Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron
District 9 Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker Bob Muwarski, Chris Innis
A Serious Man Roderick Jaynes
Up in the Air Dana Glauberman
Alt: Up Kevin Nolting
Best Achievement in Makeup:
District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek
Alt: The Road
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score):
Avatar James Horner
The Informant! Marvin Hamlisch
Sherlock Holmes Hans Zimmer
A Single Man Abel Korzeniowski
Up Michael Giacchino
Alt: Watchmen Tyler Bates
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song):
“All is Love” Where the Wild Things Are
“Cinema Italiano” Nine
“I See You” Avatar
“(I Want To) Come Home” Everybody’s Fine
“The Weary Kind (Theme From Crazy Heart)” Crazy Heart
Alt: “Almost There” The Princess and the Frog
Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alt: Watchmen
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alt: Up
Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Alt: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen