When Swine Flu
"Better safe than sorry".
As swine flu hysteria enters another week, that's pretty much the refrain from local officials as the pull the plug on schools and outdoor activities. Three more local school districts announced in the last few days that they were closing down for all of this week. All this over not very many probable or confirmed cases in a metro area with a population of 6 million.
Look, I am aware that the flu has killed a lot of people in Mexico. I understand the fear when it came across the border. I know that it could mutate into something much more serious. But really--so far none of the dire predictions that the various health organizations have issued have panned out. It's not exploding through the population. It's not deadly outside of Mexico. It's far from being a global pandemic.
What I worry about is the natural human phenomenon of followng an overreaction with an underreaction, and vice versa. Take Gulf hurricanes, for instance. After Katrina devastated New Orleans, Houston overreacted to Rita a month later (admittedly, I did too--go read my ElJay posts from mid-September 2005--but since I lived outside of Beaumont, I was correct to react the way I did). Three years later, Ike came around, and there were quite a few people on Galveston and the coast who chose to ride it out. Big mistake.
I worry about this. Everyone keeps saying "Well, we don't know what we're dealing with", which is true. But by now, now that it's becoming increasingly clear that swine flu isn't really any worse than regular flu, it's time to start ratcheting down the panic. It's time to start re-opening schools. It's time to stop canceling large public gatherings. It's time to let the flu run its course.
Because, if that doesn't happen, what's going to happen the next time? What happens if the swine flu comes back in 6 months, mutated into something more dangerous? How many parents, who had to take time off to care for completely well children, are going to be willing to do it again? How many companies, who are being generous with time off, are going to be so accommodating next time? How many school districts are going to be so quick to close down schools?
We had the luxury of going 33 years in the US between flu pandemic fears. The next one will probably come sooner than that. Memories are long. Hopefully, our full-scale panic this time won't lead to deaths next time.
As swine flu hysteria enters another week, that's pretty much the refrain from local officials as the pull the plug on schools and outdoor activities. Three more local school districts announced in the last few days that they were closing down for all of this week. All this over not very many probable or confirmed cases in a metro area with a population of 6 million.
Look, I am aware that the flu has killed a lot of people in Mexico. I understand the fear when it came across the border. I know that it could mutate into something much more serious. But really--so far none of the dire predictions that the various health organizations have issued have panned out. It's not exploding through the population. It's not deadly outside of Mexico. It's far from being a global pandemic.
What I worry about is the natural human phenomenon of followng an overreaction with an underreaction, and vice versa. Take Gulf hurricanes, for instance. After Katrina devastated New Orleans, Houston overreacted to Rita a month later (admittedly, I did too--go read my ElJay posts from mid-September 2005--but since I lived outside of Beaumont, I was correct to react the way I did). Three years later, Ike came around, and there were quite a few people on Galveston and the coast who chose to ride it out. Big mistake.
I worry about this. Everyone keeps saying "Well, we don't know what we're dealing with", which is true. But by now, now that it's becoming increasingly clear that swine flu isn't really any worse than regular flu, it's time to start ratcheting down the panic. It's time to start re-opening schools. It's time to stop canceling large public gatherings. It's time to let the flu run its course.
Because, if that doesn't happen, what's going to happen the next time? What happens if the swine flu comes back in 6 months, mutated into something more dangerous? How many parents, who had to take time off to care for completely well children, are going to be willing to do it again? How many companies, who are being generous with time off, are going to be so accommodating next time? How many school districts are going to be so quick to close down schools?
We had the luxury of going 33 years in the US between flu pandemic fears. The next one will probably come sooner than that. Memories are long. Hopefully, our full-scale panic this time won't lead to deaths next time.