Election '08: America Flips a Coin!

[mizzoumark]

If we wake up in the morning with President-Elect McCain, it will be the biggest presidential upset since Dewey Didn't Defeat Truman. I'm fairly confident in thinking there will be a electoral vote landslide for Obama. The popular vote will be closer, but as we all learned in 2000, popular vote doesn't count

Comments

[amurderofcows]

The Truman upset was an upset because polling techniques in 1948 weren't very good, and very few polls were taken in the race.

I'm voting for McCain, and in general I'm hoping House and Senate Republicans do better than expected in order to check (what's likely to be) an Obama administration. But Cornyn is a Republican senator I wouldn't particularly miss.

[mizzoumark]

I'm still trying to figure out exactly what Cornyn has done during the last six years, besides telling judges they're going to get killed if they don't make conservative decisions. I think, once final numbers come in, the DNC will be kicking themselves for not putting resources into the race, since his seat was very gettable for the Democrats.

I can't remember which one did it, but one paper more or less endorsed Cornyn because it's very likely that Hutchison is going to resign her seat to run for governor, and Texas doesn't need two rookie Senators. That's an enthusiastic endorsement if I've ever heard one.

Watching Cornyn's ads, you'd never guess that he was the incumbent.

[amurderofcows]

I think the DNC (or, more specifically, the DSCC) is pretty resistant to sinking blood and treasure into Senate races in Texas. There have been a number of times when they've thought they had the right candidate, spent some money, and found themselves not moving the needle at all. Maybe they're wrong this time, but there's a long history of Democrats trying to get traction in Texas, and spending their money only to have to cut their losses later on. Also, Texas is a fairly expensive state in which to compete, because of the number of media markets, so there's no way to make a stand there on the cheap.

[mizzoumark]

Yeah, the number of media markets in the state is insane, though the only real mega-markets are Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston. Still, even if Midland/Odessa, Tyler/Longview, Wichita Falls, Amarillo, and Beaumont/Port Arthur are all relatively cheap to advertise in individually, running ads in all of them can add up (and that's only about half of the state's small markets).

Cornyn's victory turned out to be quite a bit larger than I thought it would be, which indicates that he probably would have won, no matter how much money the DNC devoted to the state. So, I can't really argue with their decision to put their resources elsewhere. However, we're probably going to have a special election in 2010 to replace Hutchison, and if the Dems nominate someone credible, I really hope that the national party does get behind him or her.

[amurderofcows]

What I always hear about Texas through the grapevine is that the Democratic bench doesn't run very deep there anymore, so it's hard to nominate someone who can win statewide.

[mizzoumark]

Admittedly, the top of the Democratic party is pretty thin right now, but with the resurgence of the party in Dallas and Houston, along with the excesses of incumbent GOP members in Austin, the party's statewide stock should begin to climb.

The rumor is that popular Houston mayor Bill White has his eye on the governor's mansion for 2012. I think he will be a viable candidate, though I wish he'd go for the Senate, instead. I could see him winning that race statewide. I don't see him beating Hutchison for governor.