SNAP ANALYSIS: Bolivia's Morales wins, but faces long year ahead
Bolivia's President Evo Morales shows the new Bolivian constitution during a ceremony to celebrate its approval in the government at Murillo square in La Paz January 25, 2009. Bolivian voters backed a new constitution on Sunday, allowing Morales to run for re-election, give the poor indigenous majority more power and tighten his grip on the economy. REUTERS/ Enrique Castro-Mendivil (BOLIVIA)
Bolivian and Argentinean people cheer after Bolivia's President Evo Morales' speech at the Murillos square in La Paz January 25, 2009. Bolivian voters backed a new constitution on Sunday, allowing leftist President Morales to run for re-election, give the poor indigenous majority more power and tighten his grip on the economy. REUTERS/Gaston Brito (BOLIVIA)
LA PAZ (Reuters) - Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed victory on Sunday when voters approved his leftist constitution and he will go to elections this year as favorite, but he may still be forced to cut deals with his opponents.
According to exit polls, between 55 percent and 60 percent of voters endorsed the constitution. That allows Morales, who is Bolivia's first indigenous leader, to run for a second term in December and gives Indian groups more power.
Here is what can be expected from Morales and the opposition in the coming months:
* The creation of indigenous electoral districts and new rules for the election of the members of the Senate chamber could help Morales' party win control of both houses of Congress, to be renamed the "Multicultural Assembly." The opposition now controls the Senate but could lose that majority, and with it the power to block government reforms.
* If he wins a majority in both houses, Morales will try to pass new reforms to tackle social disparities and assert greater control over the economy.
* Morales is likely to push ahead with plans to create sugar, cement and paper companies and launch an airline. He has already nationalized energy, mining, and telecommunication companies, and has said he would like to nationalize several power companies as well as some railway firms.
* Opponents will point to the lower level of support for Morales than in last year's recall election, when he won 67 percent of the vote. With four of Bolivia's nine provinces voting 'no' in the referendum, it is clear that conservative opposition governors still have firm support in their areas.
* Morales' party still needs to negotiate with opposition senators in order for Congress to approve a new Electoral Code defining the rules for the election of lawmakers before April.
* Morales has said Bolivia will need to pass about 100 laws in the next few years in order to implement most of the reforms the constitution calls for, including the rules for the election of Supreme Court judges in a popular vote. To do it, he will need to work with the opposition.
* Opposition leaders will use their bargaining power to push for greater regional autonomy for the relatively wealthy eastern provinces where Morales is not popular. They will, however, likely try to keep their campaign peaceful as deadly protests last September were unsuccessful and hurt their image. Peaceful protests would put pressure on Morales to make more concessions on the issue of regional autonomy.
* While the opposition has rallied together around regional autonomy, it is far from clear whether it can unify behind a single candidate in December.
* Although he has the upper hand, Morales could struggle to increase welfare spending, as state revenues fall amid lower prices for natural gas and minerals exports -- the country's main revenue sources.
(Additional reporting by Diego Ore in Cochabamba; Editing by Kieran Murray)
(Additional reporting by Carlos Quiroga; Editing by Kieran Murray)
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE50P09E20090126