Why are the Dems performing so poorly in 2008 polls?
I am not a big fan of LA Times columnist Ronald Brownstein. I usually find his op-ed pieces to be dull and overly partisan. The column he wrote this week, however, seemed to be pretty fair-minded.
Warning signs for the Democrats
There's a black cloud in the majority party's silver lining.
March 30, 2007
An exhaustive national survey of American attitudes released last week sent the same message as the Democratic sweep in the 2006 midterm elections: a shift among independents is providing the party its best opportunity since Bill Clinton's inauguration in 1993 to establish a durable electoral advantage over the GOP.
It's another question whether Democrats can seize that opportunity better than they did in 1993, when missteps by Clinton and the party's congressional majority set up a GOP landslide just one year later. And, in fact, two other trends in contemporary public opinion spotlight dangers lurking for the Democrats again today.
Let's start with the signs of Democratic opportunity.
Democrats romped in 2006 mostly because independent voters broke decisively for them in both the House and Senate races, after splitting about evenly between the parties in 2004 and 2002. That shift in turn was driven by a collapse in support among independents for President Bush and the Iraq War. Bush's approval rating among independents in Gallup polls hasn't reached 40% since August 2005.
The most important finding in the study published last week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center was that the rift between independents and Republican voters now extends far beyond assessments of Bush and Iraq. On most key issues Pew measured, independents expressed views much closer to Democratic voters than to Republicans.
Is the best way to ensure peace through military strength? Fully 72% of Republicans thought so, but only 40% of Democrats and 46% of independents agreed. Is it necessary to sacrifice civil liberties to curb terrorism? Just over half of Republicans, but only 35% of Democrats and 37% of independents, said yes. Should government do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt? More than two-thirds of Democrats and nearly three-fifths of independents thought so, compared to just one-third of Republicans. Half of Republicans believe business strikes a fair balance between profits and the public interest; three-fifths of independents and Democrats alike believe it does not.
On social issues, such as whether school boards should be allowed to fire known homosexuals, Pew found that independents and Democrats have converged with Republicans landing well to their right. And independents placed much closer to Democrats than to Republicans in the intensity of their personal religious belief-a critical finding at a time when Republicans run best among the most religiously observant. The youngest voters-Gen X and Gen Y-were especially likely to reject conservative positions on social issues.
All of these results combine with Bush's anemic standing to underscore the judgment of veteran GOP pollster Bill McInturff when he says, "I think the Republican Party numbers today are more difficult and problematic than in 1992 or 1982 and much more like the post-Watergate period."
Yet for all these indications of possibility, Democrats face two brightly blinking yellow lights.
The first is that approval ratings for Congress are declining again, less than three months after the Democrats took control. The new majority faces a genuine conundrum. After six years of Republican dereliction, tough oversight of the Bush Administration is not only justified but imperative. And Bush's refusal to negotiate with the Democrats on issues from strategy in Iraq to testimony on the U.S. attorneys controversy leaves them with little choice but to confront him in headline-grabbing collisions, like the congressional efforts to impose a time limit on the war.
But as McInturff notes, these repeated skirmishes are exposing the Democratic majority to a dangerous dynamic. Conflicts are proliferating while the initiatives they promised voters last year, such as a higher minimum wage, are stalled. If they can't revive that agenda, even amid the fireworks with Bush on other fronts, congressional Democrats are asking for trouble. Relentless argument and sparse achievement isn't an ideal formula for success.
Early soundings about the 2008 presidential general election also ought to raise Democratic concerns. (This is the point in the column where I point out that my wife, or as I call her around the house, my little disclaimer, works in John McCain's Senate office.)
Despite the collapse in Bush's support, and the emerging Democratic issue advantages, the leading Republican contenders usually run step for step with-and often lead-the top Democrats in surveys testing 2008 support. It's early of course, but even so those numbers suggest Democrats face substantial work to tie the 2008 Republicans to voter disillusionment with Bush, and to resolve doubts about their own potential nominees. It's not too early to predict that nothing may matter more next year than whether the Republican nominee can establish independence from Bush or Democrats succeed in portraying the GOP ticket as the extension of a leadership that has lost the country's confidence.
Bush and his senior political advisor Karl Rove, operating with a singular vision, have sought to construct a lasting Republican advantage by polarizing the electorate to generate massive conservative turnout. That strategy is looking steadily less viable amid the mounting evidence it has estranged independents from the GOP. But the continuing signs of hesitation about the Democratic Congress and the party's 2008 contenders show that Democrats are still searching for a winning formula of their own.
Ronald Brownstein is the Times' national affairs columnist.
Warning signs for the Democrats
There's a black cloud in the majority party's silver lining.
March 30, 2007
An exhaustive national survey of American attitudes released last week sent the same message as the Democratic sweep in the 2006 midterm elections: a shift among independents is providing the party its best opportunity since Bill Clinton's inauguration in 1993 to establish a durable electoral advantage over the GOP.
It's another question whether Democrats can seize that opportunity better than they did in 1993, when missteps by Clinton and the party's congressional majority set up a GOP landslide just one year later. And, in fact, two other trends in contemporary public opinion spotlight dangers lurking for the Democrats again today.
Let's start with the signs of Democratic opportunity.
Democrats romped in 2006 mostly because independent voters broke decisively for them in both the House and Senate races, after splitting about evenly between the parties in 2004 and 2002. That shift in turn was driven by a collapse in support among independents for President Bush and the Iraq War. Bush's approval rating among independents in Gallup polls hasn't reached 40% since August 2005.
The most important finding in the study published last week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center was that the rift between independents and Republican voters now extends far beyond assessments of Bush and Iraq. On most key issues Pew measured, independents expressed views much closer to Democratic voters than to Republicans.
Is the best way to ensure peace through military strength? Fully 72% of Republicans thought so, but only 40% of Democrats and 46% of independents agreed. Is it necessary to sacrifice civil liberties to curb terrorism? Just over half of Republicans, but only 35% of Democrats and 37% of independents, said yes. Should government do more to help the needy even if it means going deeper into debt? More than two-thirds of Democrats and nearly three-fifths of independents thought so, compared to just one-third of Republicans. Half of Republicans believe business strikes a fair balance between profits and the public interest; three-fifths of independents and Democrats alike believe it does not.
On social issues, such as whether school boards should be allowed to fire known homosexuals, Pew found that independents and Democrats have converged with Republicans landing well to their right. And independents placed much closer to Democrats than to Republicans in the intensity of their personal religious belief-a critical finding at a time when Republicans run best among the most religiously observant. The youngest voters-Gen X and Gen Y-were especially likely to reject conservative positions on social issues.
All of these results combine with Bush's anemic standing to underscore the judgment of veteran GOP pollster Bill McInturff when he says, "I think the Republican Party numbers today are more difficult and problematic than in 1992 or 1982 and much more like the post-Watergate period."
Yet for all these indications of possibility, Democrats face two brightly blinking yellow lights.
The first is that approval ratings for Congress are declining again, less than three months after the Democrats took control. The new majority faces a genuine conundrum. After six years of Republican dereliction, tough oversight of the Bush Administration is not only justified but imperative. And Bush's refusal to negotiate with the Democrats on issues from strategy in Iraq to testimony on the U.S. attorneys controversy leaves them with little choice but to confront him in headline-grabbing collisions, like the congressional efforts to impose a time limit on the war.
But as McInturff notes, these repeated skirmishes are exposing the Democratic majority to a dangerous dynamic. Conflicts are proliferating while the initiatives they promised voters last year, such as a higher minimum wage, are stalled. If they can't revive that agenda, even amid the fireworks with Bush on other fronts, congressional Democrats are asking for trouble. Relentless argument and sparse achievement isn't an ideal formula for success.
Early soundings about the 2008 presidential general election also ought to raise Democratic concerns. (This is the point in the column where I point out that my wife, or as I call her around the house, my little disclaimer, works in John McCain's Senate office.)
Despite the collapse in Bush's support, and the emerging Democratic issue advantages, the leading Republican contenders usually run step for step with-and often lead-the top Democrats in surveys testing 2008 support. It's early of course, but even so those numbers suggest Democrats face substantial work to tie the 2008 Republicans to voter disillusionment with Bush, and to resolve doubts about their own potential nominees. It's not too early to predict that nothing may matter more next year than whether the Republican nominee can establish independence from Bush or Democrats succeed in portraying the GOP ticket as the extension of a leadership that has lost the country's confidence.
Bush and his senior political advisor Karl Rove, operating with a singular vision, have sought to construct a lasting Republican advantage by polarizing the electorate to generate massive conservative turnout. That strategy is looking steadily less viable amid the mounting evidence it has estranged independents from the GOP. But the continuing signs of hesitation about the Democratic Congress and the party's 2008 contenders show that Democrats are still searching for a winning formula of their own.
Ronald Brownstein is the Times' national affairs columnist.