Busted (Mike)
I think (hope) that most of the baseball loving public knows what a moron Buster Olney is. Not that he's not a smart person, I guess, but just that his analysis on ESPN.com is generally wrong-headed and uninformative. His daily blog at The Worldwide Leader generally reports non-stories like "[Giants' pitching coach] Dave Righetti likes the look of the Giants' rotation" as if it's news.
That said, every now and then Olney shares his interpretations of the latest news with the class, and comes up with gems such as "with a huge hole in center field and at lead-off, the Red Sox will have to trade some of their young talent -- their most coveted asset -- to get the Indians' Coco Crisp. Top young third baseman Andy Marte would be part of that deal; the third baseman of the future could be headed out the door. Had the Red Sox believed Kevin Youkilis was really that good, they wouldn't have traded for Marte, and they would've already installed Youkilis, as a stop-gap, at third base." There are so many things wrong with this statement, I'm not entirely sure where to begin.
First, it's pretty clear that the most coveted asset that both the Red Sox and Yankees (who Olney lumps into the same boat) have is money, not young talent. For both organizations, young players generally serve as trading chits to land other team's high-priced stars. Aside from the occasional Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees) and Bronson Arroyo (Sox), young players have been about as rare as a female Yankees fan without a mustache. Even Youkilis, coveted by statheads everywhere, has yet to get anything resembling regular playing time for the Red Sox (and won't this year either with Mike Lowell in the fold). Consider: this season, the Red Sox could have dealt Edgar Renteria to open up the SS spot for Hanley Ramirez, the team's heir apparent at the 6 spot. Instead, they packaged Ramirez with other prospects and sent him down to Florida for Josh Beckett and the aforementioned Lowell. Prior to the acquisition of Renteria (just after the 2004 World Series), Ramirez was considered "untouchable" (which presumably pumped up his trade value). Now, the Red Sox have SP prospects Jon Lester and John Papelbon that are making GM's mouths water around the league. I'm guessing they both won't end the year in the Boston system, one of them shipped out of town at the trading deadline for a CF or SS or SP upgrade. Andy Marte fits into this formula perfectly. The Sox acquired him, not necessarily because they felt they needed a "third baseman of the future," but because Marte was such an excellent talent. Also, with his value high, they could include him in a deal to get what they wanted, if they so desired.
Olney has obviously not read The Mind Game, the Baseball Prospectus staff's recent book that deconstructed the 2004 championship team. In it, the BP staff focus on Theo Epstein's (and the Red Sox front office's) focus on planning for the unexpected. They have backup plans for their backup plans so that the team can plug any hole and not lose a step. Bill Mueller goes down? Plug in Youkilis. Lose Curt Schilling? Move Bronson Arroyo from the bullpen. Need a stolen base? Well, use pinch runner/5th outfielder Dave Roberts that the team acquired at the trade deadline. The point is that the Red Sox never rest on their laurels and find themselves satisfied as being "good enough." The point is that, as far as the Red Sox are concerned, there is no 3B of the future. There is no reason for the team to be locked into one plan/one strategy beyond "we will do everything and look everywhere we can to improve our team." So, while the offseason has thusfar been chaotic for the Sox, their ability to fine tune and to make back-up plans for their back-up plans means that they should be alright by the time Opening Day rolls around. Need a CF? Trade one of our 3 3B for one. Need a SS? Well, Julio Lugo's still available. So's Alex Gonzalez (who would undoubtedly go for a guaranteed 1 year deal about now).
Theo's back, and Boston's going to be ok. And even if he wasn't back, I guarantee you that they had a plan in place for that too.
That said, every now and then Olney shares his interpretations of the latest news with the class, and comes up with gems such as "with a huge hole in center field and at lead-off, the Red Sox will have to trade some of their young talent -- their most coveted asset -- to get the Indians' Coco Crisp. Top young third baseman Andy Marte would be part of that deal; the third baseman of the future could be headed out the door. Had the Red Sox believed Kevin Youkilis was really that good, they wouldn't have traded for Marte, and they would've already installed Youkilis, as a stop-gap, at third base." There are so many things wrong with this statement, I'm not entirely sure where to begin.
First, it's pretty clear that the most coveted asset that both the Red Sox and Yankees (who Olney lumps into the same boat) have is money, not young talent. For both organizations, young players generally serve as trading chits to land other team's high-priced stars. Aside from the occasional Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees) and Bronson Arroyo (Sox), young players have been about as rare as a female Yankees fan without a mustache. Even Youkilis, coveted by statheads everywhere, has yet to get anything resembling regular playing time for the Red Sox (and won't this year either with Mike Lowell in the fold). Consider: this season, the Red Sox could have dealt Edgar Renteria to open up the SS spot for Hanley Ramirez, the team's heir apparent at the 6 spot. Instead, they packaged Ramirez with other prospects and sent him down to Florida for Josh Beckett and the aforementioned Lowell. Prior to the acquisition of Renteria (just after the 2004 World Series), Ramirez was considered "untouchable" (which presumably pumped up his trade value). Now, the Red Sox have SP prospects Jon Lester and John Papelbon that are making GM's mouths water around the league. I'm guessing they both won't end the year in the Boston system, one of them shipped out of town at the trading deadline for a CF or SS or SP upgrade. Andy Marte fits into this formula perfectly. The Sox acquired him, not necessarily because they felt they needed a "third baseman of the future," but because Marte was such an excellent talent. Also, with his value high, they could include him in a deal to get what they wanted, if they so desired.
Olney has obviously not read The Mind Game, the Baseball Prospectus staff's recent book that deconstructed the 2004 championship team. In it, the BP staff focus on Theo Epstein's (and the Red Sox front office's) focus on planning for the unexpected. They have backup plans for their backup plans so that the team can plug any hole and not lose a step. Bill Mueller goes down? Plug in Youkilis. Lose Curt Schilling? Move Bronson Arroyo from the bullpen. Need a stolen base? Well, use pinch runner/5th outfielder Dave Roberts that the team acquired at the trade deadline. The point is that the Red Sox never rest on their laurels and find themselves satisfied as being "good enough." The point is that, as far as the Red Sox are concerned, there is no 3B of the future. There is no reason for the team to be locked into one plan/one strategy beyond "we will do everything and look everywhere we can to improve our team." So, while the offseason has thusfar been chaotic for the Sox, their ability to fine tune and to make back-up plans for their back-up plans means that they should be alright by the time Opening Day rolls around. Need a CF? Trade one of our 3 3B for one. Need a SS? Well, Julio Lugo's still available. So's Alex Gonzalez (who would undoubtedly go for a guaranteed 1 year deal about now).
Theo's back, and Boston's going to be ok. And even if he wasn't back, I guarantee you that they had a plan in place for that too.