(no subject)
Below are some of the exit poll data taken from CNN's 2008 polls and 2004 polls.
Voter ParameterMcCainObamaBushKerryPerc. 04Perc. 08Dem. Impr.Repr. IncreaseChange in R/D Diff White Men574162373636409 White Women5346554439412-24 White5543584174772-35 African American495118813117214 18-2932664554181712125 income under 15 K257336636810-221 200 K +465263356317334 < 50K 3860445538455-711 50K +4949564362556713 no high school356349504413027 postgraduate405844551716317 Democratic108911893937021 Republican90993632373-56 Independent445248492926337 Weekly church att.5543613940414-110 Never attend church3067366216155111 protestant5445594054545010 catholic4554524727277014 Union member376038611214-1-20 gun in house623763384241-110 GLB2770237744-70-11 Dem. Improv: Change in Democratic Numbers 04-->08
Perc. 04/08: Percentage of the voters who acknowledged having this property
Repr. Increase: Perc. 08 - Perc. 04
Change in R/D Diff: Change in the diff. b/w Rep. and Dem. results 08 --> 04, e.g., the difference between the Republicans and Democrats amongst white males was 25 (62 -37) percentage points in 04 but 16 (57-41) in '08. So they improved by 9.
Observations:
-Obama lost white males by 9 fewer points than Kerry did and whites by 5 fewer points. This suggests that these whites who weren't voting for Obama were doing so for reasons other than race, i.e., whites are just less likely to vote Democratic in general. The increase in white support (from 41% to 43%) for Obama wasn't too much less than the overall increase in percentage of votes received by Obama (52) as compared to Kerry (48). We should note, though, that whites made up a smaller percentage of the overall set of polled voters in 2008.
-Obama had a huge increase in support, as compared to Kerry, among those with incomes over 200K, despite the famous tax increases for those earning 200/250K+ and McCain's attempt to portray Obama as a socialist.
-In both elections, when we consider the breakdown of voters by education, the highest level of Democratic support was amongst those with no high school education and those with postgraduate education, the two ends of the spectrum. However, in 2008, the difference in support for Obama between each of those two groups and the remaining educational demographics was much more pronounced than it was in 2004.
-The percentage of voters that identified as Republican was much smaller (32 vs. 37) in '08, but the percentage of those saying they earned over 200K/a was bigger in 2008, 6% vs. 3%.
-Two groups that Obama won and Kerry lost: Catholics and those earning over 200K. John Kerry is Roman Catholic, Obama is not.
-Obama did notably worse than Kerry did amongst those identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual (GLB). That's the only parameter, of the ones I considered, for which this occurred at any noteworthy level. It may be because gay marriage was a bigger issue in '04.
-Efforts to turn out the youth vote didn't seem to have a huge effect, the percentage of voters that were in the 18-29 age group increased by only one percentage point in this poll. However, the percentage of people in this group who voted for the Democratic presidential nominee increased by a very large amount.
-In terms of religious observance, Obama saw large increases in support, as compared to Kerry, both amongst those who attend church weekly or more frequently (improved by 10) and among those who never attend church (11).
UPDATE:This post was updated (i) to clarify a couple of the observations and to add the last two, and (ii) again to remove an incorrect assertion about turnout of white voters and then (iii) to correct an assertion about those earning over 200K, there were actually more of those turning out in 2008, not fewer, despite the fact that Republican turnout appeared to have been a bit lower.
Voter ParameterMcCainObamaBushKerryPerc. 04Perc. 08Dem. Impr.Repr. IncreaseChange in R/D Diff White Men574162373636409 White Women5346554439412-24 White5543584174772-35 African American495118813117214 18-2932664554181712125 income under 15 K257336636810-221 200 K +465263356317334 < 50K 3860445538455-711 50K +4949564362556713 no high school356349504413027 postgraduate405844551716317 Democratic108911893937021 Republican90993632373-56 Independent445248492926337 Weekly church att.5543613940414-110 Never attend church3067366216155111 protestant5445594054545010 catholic4554524727277014 Union member376038611214-1-20 gun in house623763384241-110 GLB2770237744-70-11 Dem. Improv: Change in Democratic Numbers 04-->08
Perc. 04/08: Percentage of the voters who acknowledged having this property
Repr. Increase: Perc. 08 - Perc. 04
Change in R/D Diff: Change in the diff. b/w Rep. and Dem. results 08 --> 04, e.g., the difference between the Republicans and Democrats amongst white males was 25 (62 -37) percentage points in 04 but 16 (57-41) in '08. So they improved by 9.
Observations:
-Obama lost white males by 9 fewer points than Kerry did and whites by 5 fewer points. This suggests that these whites who weren't voting for Obama were doing so for reasons other than race, i.e., whites are just less likely to vote Democratic in general. The increase in white support (from 41% to 43%) for Obama wasn't too much less than the overall increase in percentage of votes received by Obama (52) as compared to Kerry (48). We should note, though, that whites made up a smaller percentage of the overall set of polled voters in 2008.
-Obama had a huge increase in support, as compared to Kerry, among those with incomes over 200K, despite the famous tax increases for those earning 200/250K+ and McCain's attempt to portray Obama as a socialist.
-In both elections, when we consider the breakdown of voters by education, the highest level of Democratic support was amongst those with no high school education and those with postgraduate education, the two ends of the spectrum. However, in 2008, the difference in support for Obama between each of those two groups and the remaining educational demographics was much more pronounced than it was in 2004.
-The percentage of voters that identified as Republican was much smaller (32 vs. 37) in '08, but the percentage of those saying they earned over 200K/a was bigger in 2008, 6% vs. 3%.
-Two groups that Obama won and Kerry lost: Catholics and those earning over 200K. John Kerry is Roman Catholic, Obama is not.
-Obama did notably worse than Kerry did amongst those identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual (GLB). That's the only parameter, of the ones I considered, for which this occurred at any noteworthy level. It may be because gay marriage was a bigger issue in '04.
-Efforts to turn out the youth vote didn't seem to have a huge effect, the percentage of voters that were in the 18-29 age group increased by only one percentage point in this poll. However, the percentage of people in this group who voted for the Democratic presidential nominee increased by a very large amount.
-In terms of religious observance, Obama saw large increases in support, as compared to Kerry, both amongst those who attend church weekly or more frequently (improved by 10) and among those who never attend church (11).
UPDATE:This post was updated (i) to clarify a couple of the observations and to add the last two, and (ii) again to remove an incorrect assertion about turnout of white voters and then (iii) to correct an assertion about those earning over 200K, there were actually more of those turning out in 2008, not fewer, despite the fact that Republican turnout appeared to have been a bit lower.