Gears for the Fight
No, this is oddly enough NOT a rant about the Iraq War, or Afghanistan, or Iran or anywhere else we're killing people. This is about the Super Bowl of politics coming up next year, the 2008 elections. Fulfilling a long standing prediction, Barack Obama filed papers to form an exploratory committee, which is considered the first step before officially declaring candidacy for president. In declaring the formation of committee, he joins Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, John Edwards, Chris Dodd (Sen. D-CT), Sam Brownback (Sen. R-KS), Mitt Romney (Gov. R-MA), Tommy Thompson (former Sec. HHS [oh fine, former Secretary of Health and Human Services] under George W. Bush), Ron Paul (Rep. R-TX), Mike Gravel (former Sen. D-AK), Dennis Kucinich (Rep. D-OH), Tom vilsack (former Gov. D-IA), Duncan Hunter (Rep. R-CA), Jim Gilmore (former Gov. R-VA). Oh, and about a dozen others have expressed an interest. Note, Sen. Clinton has not formally delcared herself a candidate or even formed an exploratory committee. But she does have millions left over from her senate run. She has, right now, about 13 million dollars left over from her safe seat race in New York Senate that can be rolled over to a presidential campaign.
And thus the scorekeeping begins. How much money can be raised how fast? Senator Clinton spent the most out of all the senators running for election in 2006, at a whopping 36 million. Rick Santorum spent the next most at 24 million, and lost. Hard. She won 67% of the popular vote while Santorum got all of 41%. Money does not equal votes. In her first run for Senator from the Empire State, her opponents spent 60 million dollars to her 30 million, but she stil won. Kerry, under the advice of DNC Chair Terry MacAuliffe cozied up to business interests in an effort to get more money, but in doing so appeared to have lost touch with many of the Democratic base. Yet another factor in his loss in 2004, but that's an old story.
Now, we're into the 2008 elections and there are no clear frontrunners, really, in either party. Yeah, the Democrats have Obama and Clinton, but neither one has that electable quality. Obama's too new and Clinton, well, even among Democrats when competing against other Democrats she does little better than Bush. It's a wide open field. Gen. Clark, Al Gore and many other comedic choices have expressed an interest in running, but they stand a snowball's chance in Hell. But they do make the race interesting and they are fun for trying to figure where to put money early on. For example, Dean in the 2004 campaign raised a great amount money through internet outreach and random buzz, but ended up tanking after the Iowa primary. Money does not a candidate make.
Then again, in comparison to the Republicans, the Democrats look slick and well organized. Don't worry, that perception won't last the test of time. If there is no clear front runner among the Democrats, there is even less of one for the Republicans. Cheney has said in no uncertain times, on multiple occasions, that he will never run for president. And since Bush hasn't managed to change the Constitution to let himself run for a third term, he's not running. Powell can't run for a number of family related reasons. Condolezza Rice has shown no real interest in the job. Bill Frist was going to run but considering how badly the Terry Schiavo affair went, his popularity plummeted. Giuliani looks good at point, but he has some nasty weaknesses, including policy disagreements and some possible corruption connections. There are no victorious generals in Iraq to be like Eisenhower, nor are there any real Republican heroes of the Senate. The closest person the Republicans have to a great candidate is Schwarzenegger, who can't run.
President Kennedy announced his candidacy in January of 1960. If one were to do that, announce in January of the election year, it would give them mere days to campaign for the New Hampshire primary. While officially still the new Hampshire Democratic primary is sscheduled for late January, there is a part of the state constitution that says they have to hold the first primary in the country. Iowa scheduled theirs before New Hampshire's. New Hampshire is going to move their primary, but the Democrats threatened to withhold New Hampshire's delegates if they did so. Because nothing says committed to winning the White House like denying delegates to make a state feel better.
So, the race is beginning pretty early, even by these standards. C-Span ran their "Road to the White House 2008" Banner the day after the 2004 elections. While Bush is arguably the longest lame duck president to serve in office, calling the beginning of the race 4 years out is a little rough. We, as a people, need to be less interested in the horse race aspect of politics and more on the "getting real things done" aspect of politics. Luckily, we are paying attention to the famous "100 hour clock" the Democrats put into place to measure how much they are gonna try to push through legislatively. We all like measuring by numbers, there are no real better ways to measure.
So, we'll do dumb things, like measure a front runner by money.
So it is written, so do I see it.
And thus the scorekeeping begins. How much money can be raised how fast? Senator Clinton spent the most out of all the senators running for election in 2006, at a whopping 36 million. Rick Santorum spent the next most at 24 million, and lost. Hard. She won 67% of the popular vote while Santorum got all of 41%. Money does not equal votes. In her first run for Senator from the Empire State, her opponents spent 60 million dollars to her 30 million, but she stil won. Kerry, under the advice of DNC Chair Terry MacAuliffe cozied up to business interests in an effort to get more money, but in doing so appeared to have lost touch with many of the Democratic base. Yet another factor in his loss in 2004, but that's an old story.
Now, we're into the 2008 elections and there are no clear frontrunners, really, in either party. Yeah, the Democrats have Obama and Clinton, but neither one has that electable quality. Obama's too new and Clinton, well, even among Democrats when competing against other Democrats she does little better than Bush. It's a wide open field. Gen. Clark, Al Gore and many other comedic choices have expressed an interest in running, but they stand a snowball's chance in Hell. But they do make the race interesting and they are fun for trying to figure where to put money early on. For example, Dean in the 2004 campaign raised a great amount money through internet outreach and random buzz, but ended up tanking after the Iowa primary. Money does not a candidate make.
Then again, in comparison to the Republicans, the Democrats look slick and well organized. Don't worry, that perception won't last the test of time. If there is no clear front runner among the Democrats, there is even less of one for the Republicans. Cheney has said in no uncertain times, on multiple occasions, that he will never run for president. And since Bush hasn't managed to change the Constitution to let himself run for a third term, he's not running. Powell can't run for a number of family related reasons. Condolezza Rice has shown no real interest in the job. Bill Frist was going to run but considering how badly the Terry Schiavo affair went, his popularity plummeted. Giuliani looks good at point, but he has some nasty weaknesses, including policy disagreements and some possible corruption connections. There are no victorious generals in Iraq to be like Eisenhower, nor are there any real Republican heroes of the Senate. The closest person the Republicans have to a great candidate is Schwarzenegger, who can't run.
President Kennedy announced his candidacy in January of 1960. If one were to do that, announce in January of the election year, it would give them mere days to campaign for the New Hampshire primary. While officially still the new Hampshire Democratic primary is sscheduled for late January, there is a part of the state constitution that says they have to hold the first primary in the country. Iowa scheduled theirs before New Hampshire's. New Hampshire is going to move their primary, but the Democrats threatened to withhold New Hampshire's delegates if they did so. Because nothing says committed to winning the White House like denying delegates to make a state feel better.
So, the race is beginning pretty early, even by these standards. C-Span ran their "Road to the White House 2008" Banner the day after the 2004 elections. While Bush is arguably the longest lame duck president to serve in office, calling the beginning of the race 4 years out is a little rough. We, as a people, need to be less interested in the horse race aspect of politics and more on the "getting real things done" aspect of politics. Luckily, we are paying attention to the famous "100 hour clock" the Democrats put into place to measure how much they are gonna try to push through legislatively. We all like measuring by numbers, there are no real better ways to measure.
So, we'll do dumb things, like measure a front runner by money.
So it is written, so do I see it.