Rabbits in Winter
Saudi Arabia brings a lot of images to the American mind. A country of oil, sprawling deserts and the cities few and far between. A country housing the two holiest sites in Islam, Makkah and Madinah (often translated as Mecca and Medina), as well as being the birthplace of Islam. A country that birthed both Osama bin Laden and some of the US closest allies. A country that boasts the world's largest, and wealthiest, royal family. The ruling family of Saudi Arabia, House al-Saud, has a long and twisting history. And well, there are a lot of people who are a part of this family. The family started to gain real prominence, or at least real prominence is marked as starting, at about the same time the American Revolution took place. Muhammed bin Saud was a small tribal leader of a town called Diriyah until he joined forces with a Muslim thinker named Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab, for whom Wahhabist Islam is named. Wahhabist Islam, more properly called Salafi, is marked by very devotional actions, as well as a call to more traditional forms of worship. In other words, they get a little fundamentalist.
Together, they formed the First Saudi State. At first, it only ruled an area called the Najd, which is the northern central plateau area which includes modern day Riyadh (current capital of Saudi Arabia). Muhammed bin Saud was the political and military might and the Shaikh Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab (simply called, the Shaikh) provided the heart and soul. By the early 19th century, bin Saud ruled msot of the Arabian peninsula, including Mekkah and Madinah. This state was crushed by the Ottoman Empire, as it was not politically or militarily strong compared to the Ottomans. The Second Saudi State was formed, but was again conquered by the Ottoman Empire. As World War I came, Lawrence of Arabia helped organize and recruit the local tribes and countries into helping the British cause by promising various groups homelands (most notably, the Syrians) in exchange for helping to defeat the Ottomans. The Ottomans were defeated, but, as happens, the British went back on their word (or at least, they didn't recognize the negotiations of T.E. Lawrence) and the British set up mandates and carved the region as they saw fit. Naturally, wars broke out.
As the area fought itself, the British and everyone they could, the al-Sauds re-took their traditional lands of Najd and Riyadh. In 1902, they re-took Diriyah, and by 1926, they took the Hijaz region (Western Saudi Arabia, including Mekkah and Madinah) and Abdul Aziz bin Saud proclaimed himself king of Hijaz and Najd. In the treaty of Jeddah, in 1927, King Abdul Aziz al Saud was recognized as ruler of these lands and was granted independence from the British Empire. In 1932, King Adbul Aziz bin Saud (as he was now known), formally created the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Of course, being the ruler of just a desert country didn't mean much. Until six years later when oil was dicovered. With oil came wealth, lots of it. And with money and power, came the need to consolidate power. To this end, he had not one, not two but seventeen wives. He had, by most accounts, 45 sons and any number of daughters. Most notable of his wives was Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairi, who bore Fahd, Sultan, Abdul-Rahman, Turki, Naif, Salman and Ahmed. These men are collectively known as the Sudairi Seven, and the most powerful princes in the country, but more on them later.
King Abdul Aziz ruled until his death in 1953, when he was succeeded by his son by his first wife, Saud. King Saud reigned until he was succeeded by his Crown Prince (as is the tradition) and oldest living son of Abdul Aziz's second wife, Faisal. Saud was deposed by his family after a series of scandals. Muhammed, the eldest son of Adbul Aziz's third wife should have been next in line, but Faisal had the support of the family and religious scholars. Faisal ruled until 1975 when he was assassinated by the son of the oldest son of the fourth wife of Abdul Aziz, Muhammed. Muhammed's son may have killed Faisal, but it was Muhammed younger brother Khalid who took the throne. Note, Muhammed also ordered the death of his granddaughter on charges of adultery. Muhammed enjoyed the role of king maker, and was generally the wealthiest prince, while having his younger brother take the hits for him on the international stage. In 1982, King Khaled died, of natural cuases. He was succeeded by Fahd, the eldest of the Sudairi Seven, who reigned until last year. His half-brother, Abdullah, was his Crown Prince. When Fahd had a stroke in 1995, Abdullah ruled as Regent. When Fahd died, Abdullah rose to the crown and appointed defense minister and next oldest of the Sudairi Seven, Sultan. Sultan is famous for having a US air base named after him, Prince Sultan Air Base which was transferred to the Saudis a few years ago. He was the defense minister and that was the deal made. But, as Saudi tradition goes, the Crown Prince becomes king when king dies or steps down.
But, this was all made more complicated in 1992 when a law, called Saudi Basic Law, was passed that proclaims the successor shall not automatically be the Crown Prince but "the most able bodied man of the sons and grandsons of Abdul Aziz bin Saud". Of course, after Sultan, there are five more of the Sudairi Seven who are powerful of the Princes. The royal Princes (those who are able to ascend to the throne, in theory) number about 200 out of the over 500 there are. The total royal family number about 25,000 members. Note, that includes the descandants of the daughters of Abdul Aziz bin Saud. But, it is possible King Abdullah, all of 82 years old, will outlive his half brothers of Sudairi Seven (his mother was Fahda bint Asi al-Shuraim, Abdul Aziz's eigth wife), or perhaps they will be too old to be considered "able-bodied". The fight begins in earnest when you get multigenerations fighting it out. Some, like Al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz, will not fight for the throne. Al-Waleed and his father have both pushed for a constitutional monarchies and democratic freedoms (he is to be another rant for another time). Even if only say, 1 in 5 princes actively wants to be king, that is still 40 princes fighting it out. The film The Lion in Winter had only three princes engaged nasty machinations. Lear had only to contend with three daughters.
This only gest worse as time goes on. In a family that breeds like rabbits and has only oil as profitable resource, things can get worse. After all, if oil stops being a great natural resource, or if the oil under Saudi gets all used up, then you'll have princes used to the good life suddenly reduced to just the profits from being the Custodian of the Holy Places of Islam. While those are very lucrative, they are not enough to keep every platinum prince in parades and parties. If we get to say, another 15 years and we hit 35,000 members of the royal family (from 45 in 1932 to 25,000 in 2006, well, the math is not on their side) and add in to this the oppressive nature of the government, and you get the recipe for rebellion.
And in a place where terrorists often train, the words "bloody coup" will be redefined.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Together, they formed the First Saudi State. At first, it only ruled an area called the Najd, which is the northern central plateau area which includes modern day Riyadh (current capital of Saudi Arabia). Muhammed bin Saud was the political and military might and the Shaikh Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab (simply called, the Shaikh) provided the heart and soul. By the early 19th century, bin Saud ruled msot of the Arabian peninsula, including Mekkah and Madinah. This state was crushed by the Ottoman Empire, as it was not politically or militarily strong compared to the Ottomans. The Second Saudi State was formed, but was again conquered by the Ottoman Empire. As World War I came, Lawrence of Arabia helped organize and recruit the local tribes and countries into helping the British cause by promising various groups homelands (most notably, the Syrians) in exchange for helping to defeat the Ottomans. The Ottomans were defeated, but, as happens, the British went back on their word (or at least, they didn't recognize the negotiations of T.E. Lawrence) and the British set up mandates and carved the region as they saw fit. Naturally, wars broke out.
As the area fought itself, the British and everyone they could, the al-Sauds re-took their traditional lands of Najd and Riyadh. In 1902, they re-took Diriyah, and by 1926, they took the Hijaz region (Western Saudi Arabia, including Mekkah and Madinah) and Abdul Aziz bin Saud proclaimed himself king of Hijaz and Najd. In the treaty of Jeddah, in 1927, King Abdul Aziz al Saud was recognized as ruler of these lands and was granted independence from the British Empire. In 1932, King Adbul Aziz bin Saud (as he was now known), formally created the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Of course, being the ruler of just a desert country didn't mean much. Until six years later when oil was dicovered. With oil came wealth, lots of it. And with money and power, came the need to consolidate power. To this end, he had not one, not two but seventeen wives. He had, by most accounts, 45 sons and any number of daughters. Most notable of his wives was Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairi, who bore Fahd, Sultan, Abdul-Rahman, Turki, Naif, Salman and Ahmed. These men are collectively known as the Sudairi Seven, and the most powerful princes in the country, but more on them later.
King Abdul Aziz ruled until his death in 1953, when he was succeeded by his son by his first wife, Saud. King Saud reigned until he was succeeded by his Crown Prince (as is the tradition) and oldest living son of Abdul Aziz's second wife, Faisal. Saud was deposed by his family after a series of scandals. Muhammed, the eldest son of Adbul Aziz's third wife should have been next in line, but Faisal had the support of the family and religious scholars. Faisal ruled until 1975 when he was assassinated by the son of the oldest son of the fourth wife of Abdul Aziz, Muhammed. Muhammed's son may have killed Faisal, but it was Muhammed younger brother Khalid who took the throne. Note, Muhammed also ordered the death of his granddaughter on charges of adultery. Muhammed enjoyed the role of king maker, and was generally the wealthiest prince, while having his younger brother take the hits for him on the international stage. In 1982, King Khaled died, of natural cuases. He was succeeded by Fahd, the eldest of the Sudairi Seven, who reigned until last year. His half-brother, Abdullah, was his Crown Prince. When Fahd had a stroke in 1995, Abdullah ruled as Regent. When Fahd died, Abdullah rose to the crown and appointed defense minister and next oldest of the Sudairi Seven, Sultan. Sultan is famous for having a US air base named after him, Prince Sultan Air Base which was transferred to the Saudis a few years ago. He was the defense minister and that was the deal made. But, as Saudi tradition goes, the Crown Prince becomes king when king dies or steps down.
But, this was all made more complicated in 1992 when a law, called Saudi Basic Law, was passed that proclaims the successor shall not automatically be the Crown Prince but "the most able bodied man of the sons and grandsons of Abdul Aziz bin Saud". Of course, after Sultan, there are five more of the Sudairi Seven who are powerful of the Princes. The royal Princes (those who are able to ascend to the throne, in theory) number about 200 out of the over 500 there are. The total royal family number about 25,000 members. Note, that includes the descandants of the daughters of Abdul Aziz bin Saud. But, it is possible King Abdullah, all of 82 years old, will outlive his half brothers of Sudairi Seven (his mother was Fahda bint Asi al-Shuraim, Abdul Aziz's eigth wife), or perhaps they will be too old to be considered "able-bodied". The fight begins in earnest when you get multigenerations fighting it out. Some, like Al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz, will not fight for the throne. Al-Waleed and his father have both pushed for a constitutional monarchies and democratic freedoms (he is to be another rant for another time). Even if only say, 1 in 5 princes actively wants to be king, that is still 40 princes fighting it out. The film The Lion in Winter had only three princes engaged nasty machinations. Lear had only to contend with three daughters.
This only gest worse as time goes on. In a family that breeds like rabbits and has only oil as profitable resource, things can get worse. After all, if oil stops being a great natural resource, or if the oil under Saudi gets all used up, then you'll have princes used to the good life suddenly reduced to just the profits from being the Custodian of the Holy Places of Islam. While those are very lucrative, they are not enough to keep every platinum prince in parades and parties. If we get to say, another 15 years and we hit 35,000 members of the royal family (from 45 in 1932 to 25,000 in 2006, well, the math is not on their side) and add in to this the oppressive nature of the government, and you get the recipe for rebellion.
And in a place where terrorists often train, the words "bloody coup" will be redefined.
So it is written, so do I see it.