What Storms to Weather
The Republican National Convention was scheduled to start Monday, but has been postponed for a day because of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Issac. The storm also disrupted plans for Vice President Joe Biden to tour Florida in a counter-programming attempt. Being that the convention is in Tampa and this is the height of hurricane season for that part of the world, the Republicans might be accused of poor planning in favor of trying to garner some excitement in a swing state. One reason the convention was postponed was because the original plan for security in Tampa was for officers to be called in from all over the Sunshine State to help supplement local forces in deal with protestors, motorcades and other heavy lifting. However, with the storm bearing down, those officers wouldn't be available for those kinds of duties. If that were the end of the Republican problems this week, that would be a blessing. While he won't be in there in person, Todd Akin's presence will be felt by every Republican in attendance, largely by protestors and the Paul dynasty is making their presence felt by one speaking in prime-time (Senator Rand Paul) and one not speaking because he couldn't betray his conscience in a way to endorse Mitt Romney (Representative Ron Paul). Not to mention, somehow in all of this, Romney has to define himself in a new light and bridge some serious gaps.
From a strictly logistical point of view, forestalling the convention was the right thing to do. After all, the Republicans have experience with doing that from the 2008 convention. 2008 was delayed by Hurricane Gustav, which is impressive because it was in Minnesota, not a state known for being hit by hurricanes. The 2004 convention had to be ended early, for some anyway, so that Florida delegates could leave and deal with Hurricane Frances, which had made landfall in that state. They knew how to deal with delays, which has led some to suggest that maybe three days is enough for getting all the business of the convention. However, in this case, since so much of the contingency planning is being directly stunted by the state of Florida's emergency planning, they really had no choice. There are going to be plenty of protests and demonstrations going on, and they were counting on having thousands of officers on call from all over the state to help out, but they would not be available if they were doing things like helping people who had been devastated by the hurricane. It's not a good sign when your national convention is associated with hurricanes three times in a row. While this will likely not stop cities from competing for the big money that comes with hosting a convention, the MidnightRanter prediction for the 2016 Republican convention is Las Vegas: a swing state that has zero chance of seeing a hurricane disrupt anything; Sheldon Anderson would love this idea.
However, here and now the hurricane is disrupting a lot of services, which has led to Joe Biden canceling his swing through the state. It was a bold move by Biden to directly counter the Republican machine in that state, since usually vice presidents or higher didn't go to the state where the other party's convention was being held and campaign while it was going on. It was a bold move in a swing state that, if Obama secures, can make Romney's chance at election seem non-existent. Obama was going to be swinging through Virginia, Ohio and other swing states to shore up votes in those states. Biden, realizing early on that between the convention and the hurricane, they definitely wouldn't have enough police to both do all the things needed for a VP visit and actually help people, he canceled. He also made this call ahead of the Republicans, probably in an effort to look like he was more forward thinking and caring more about the average people of Florida, which probably worked in some small measure, at least. Again, if the trip had come off, it would have been a bold move to try to tie up the free media that a convention usually gets in the hosting state. Given how expensive Florida media buys are, any free media in an expensive swing state is a God-send. It was a calculated move to both deprive the Republicans of free media and to take up some free media of their own. It was an even better move, on a lot of levels, to call off the trip so police could do their real jobs, serving the local citizens' needs.
One set of needs that will not be served, however, are those of Todd Akin. While he was never guaranteed anything resembling a star role at this convention, he has quickly made himself persona non grata at the event, and had all his funding pulled by the RNC. However, this will not stop him from being a presence at the event. He, like the great albatross, will be around everyone's neck and no one will be able to deal with him effectively. The protestors will be lined up in force to make sure each delegate and speaker knows that Akin's comments were out of line but possibly indicative of the Republican party as a whole. While every Republican has come out against the idea that the female body will shut down a pregnancy after a rape, they do agree with a core tenet of his beliefs: all abortions should be illegal. It is one of the planks of their party platform. While this has been a plank of the party platform since 2000, this is the first time it has been made so front and center. Akin has pulled focus from what should have been a great time for Romney to redefine himself and reconnect with voters to having to play defense against charges of misogyny and not understanding medical needs of women. Between Ryan and Akin, Romney is forced to define himself as a guy who both wants to fight abortion and a guy who is not so breathtakingly stupid that he thinks the vagina and uterus are granted magical powers over life and death by will of the woman.
If those internal problems weren't enough, he has to deal with the Paul family. Word is, they already made a deal with the Pauls to include a plank about forming a Gold Commission to re-examine the feasibility of going back onto the gold standard AND give Rand Paul (son of Ron) a prime speaking slot at the convention in exchange for not trying to torpedo the convention with a lot of rules lawyers and tricks. Ron Paul has stated that he's not endorsing Romney and that he wouldn't speak at the convention unless he could say that. His son, however, being more of a politically minded boy, is speaking and will probably say a nice thing about Romney and more nice things about Paul Ryan and possibly lead the group prayer to Ayn Rand. He will go on about the need for smaller government, the tyranny of big government and how bad Obama is, just so he can set himself up for a real run for the presidency in 2016. And 2020, because no matter which way it goes, he's running again. What this does demonstrate is the Republican establishment fear of Tea Party and the Paul faction. It also demonstrates that they can be bought off pretty cheaply in comparison to the damage they could do. If they wanted, they could make a real ruckus of the convention by plunging it into chaos through obscure rules that would be both boring to understanding and exciting to watch the chaos.
But that's where the Republicans stand now: between chaos and fragmentation. Romney is not the Reaganesque figure they need to hold a big tent party together like they'd hope. He can't hold both the religious factions, as typified by Huckabee and Akin, together with the Tea Party types, as exemplified by the Paul family, and the big business community, as sponsored by the Koch brothers. This convention will not be chaotic, but nor will it be harmonious. It will be ordered, but it will not be in agreement. They will get through this, the speeches will not make a hell of a lot of sense if taken together and Romney has to not only survive it, but come out looking like a leader if he wants to convince the few remaining undecided voters that he can really be a president. Obama was able to bring most of the Hillary people to his table, as well as all kinds of moderate Republicans who were put off by McCain's hard right turn and the pick of Palin as VP. Romney doesn't have that kind of draw at this point. The big things he is known for now are being the big business guy who won't release his tax returns, the guy whose record on abortion is muddled at best and a guy who won his primary by destroying the records of his opponents and is now complaining about Obama being too rough with his attacks.
What Romney will soon be known for is losing to Obama in 2012.
So it is written, so do I see it.
From a strictly logistical point of view, forestalling the convention was the right thing to do. After all, the Republicans have experience with doing that from the 2008 convention. 2008 was delayed by Hurricane Gustav, which is impressive because it was in Minnesota, not a state known for being hit by hurricanes. The 2004 convention had to be ended early, for some anyway, so that Florida delegates could leave and deal with Hurricane Frances, which had made landfall in that state. They knew how to deal with delays, which has led some to suggest that maybe three days is enough for getting all the business of the convention. However, in this case, since so much of the contingency planning is being directly stunted by the state of Florida's emergency planning, they really had no choice. There are going to be plenty of protests and demonstrations going on, and they were counting on having thousands of officers on call from all over the state to help out, but they would not be available if they were doing things like helping people who had been devastated by the hurricane. It's not a good sign when your national convention is associated with hurricanes three times in a row. While this will likely not stop cities from competing for the big money that comes with hosting a convention, the MidnightRanter prediction for the 2016 Republican convention is Las Vegas: a swing state that has zero chance of seeing a hurricane disrupt anything; Sheldon Anderson would love this idea.
However, here and now the hurricane is disrupting a lot of services, which has led to Joe Biden canceling his swing through the state. It was a bold move by Biden to directly counter the Republican machine in that state, since usually vice presidents or higher didn't go to the state where the other party's convention was being held and campaign while it was going on. It was a bold move in a swing state that, if Obama secures, can make Romney's chance at election seem non-existent. Obama was going to be swinging through Virginia, Ohio and other swing states to shore up votes in those states. Biden, realizing early on that between the convention and the hurricane, they definitely wouldn't have enough police to both do all the things needed for a VP visit and actually help people, he canceled. He also made this call ahead of the Republicans, probably in an effort to look like he was more forward thinking and caring more about the average people of Florida, which probably worked in some small measure, at least. Again, if the trip had come off, it would have been a bold move to try to tie up the free media that a convention usually gets in the hosting state. Given how expensive Florida media buys are, any free media in an expensive swing state is a God-send. It was a calculated move to both deprive the Republicans of free media and to take up some free media of their own. It was an even better move, on a lot of levels, to call off the trip so police could do their real jobs, serving the local citizens' needs.
One set of needs that will not be served, however, are those of Todd Akin. While he was never guaranteed anything resembling a star role at this convention, he has quickly made himself persona non grata at the event, and had all his funding pulled by the RNC. However, this will not stop him from being a presence at the event. He, like the great albatross, will be around everyone's neck and no one will be able to deal with him effectively. The protestors will be lined up in force to make sure each delegate and speaker knows that Akin's comments were out of line but possibly indicative of the Republican party as a whole. While every Republican has come out against the idea that the female body will shut down a pregnancy after a rape, they do agree with a core tenet of his beliefs: all abortions should be illegal. It is one of the planks of their party platform. While this has been a plank of the party platform since 2000, this is the first time it has been made so front and center. Akin has pulled focus from what should have been a great time for Romney to redefine himself and reconnect with voters to having to play defense against charges of misogyny and not understanding medical needs of women. Between Ryan and Akin, Romney is forced to define himself as a guy who both wants to fight abortion and a guy who is not so breathtakingly stupid that he thinks the vagina and uterus are granted magical powers over life and death by will of the woman.
If those internal problems weren't enough, he has to deal with the Paul family. Word is, they already made a deal with the Pauls to include a plank about forming a Gold Commission to re-examine the feasibility of going back onto the gold standard AND give Rand Paul (son of Ron) a prime speaking slot at the convention in exchange for not trying to torpedo the convention with a lot of rules lawyers and tricks. Ron Paul has stated that he's not endorsing Romney and that he wouldn't speak at the convention unless he could say that. His son, however, being more of a politically minded boy, is speaking and will probably say a nice thing about Romney and more nice things about Paul Ryan and possibly lead the group prayer to Ayn Rand. He will go on about the need for smaller government, the tyranny of big government and how bad Obama is, just so he can set himself up for a real run for the presidency in 2016. And 2020, because no matter which way it goes, he's running again. What this does demonstrate is the Republican establishment fear of Tea Party and the Paul faction. It also demonstrates that they can be bought off pretty cheaply in comparison to the damage they could do. If they wanted, they could make a real ruckus of the convention by plunging it into chaos through obscure rules that would be both boring to understanding and exciting to watch the chaos.
But that's where the Republicans stand now: between chaos and fragmentation. Romney is not the Reaganesque figure they need to hold a big tent party together like they'd hope. He can't hold both the religious factions, as typified by Huckabee and Akin, together with the Tea Party types, as exemplified by the Paul family, and the big business community, as sponsored by the Koch brothers. This convention will not be chaotic, but nor will it be harmonious. It will be ordered, but it will not be in agreement. They will get through this, the speeches will not make a hell of a lot of sense if taken together and Romney has to not only survive it, but come out looking like a leader if he wants to convince the few remaining undecided voters that he can really be a president. Obama was able to bring most of the Hillary people to his table, as well as all kinds of moderate Republicans who were put off by McCain's hard right turn and the pick of Palin as VP. Romney doesn't have that kind of draw at this point. The big things he is known for now are being the big business guy who won't release his tax returns, the guy whose record on abortion is muddled at best and a guy who won his primary by destroying the records of his opponents and is now complaining about Obama being too rough with his attacks.
What Romney will soon be known for is losing to Obama in 2012.
So it is written, so do I see it.