Blowing Up in Their Face
Yesterday, a bomb was detonated in Damascus, Syria in the national security building killing three top official, placed there by rebels the day before to target that meeting. Among the dead were defense minister and former Army chief of staff Gen. Daoud Rajiha, his deputy Assef Shawkat (who was also the brother-in-law to President Bashar al-Assad) and Hasan Turkmani, currently an "assistant to the vice president" who is a head crisis manager, also formerly the defense minister and army chief of staff. Among the half dozen also wounded were Interior Minister Mohammed al-Shaar and national security bureau chief Hisham Ikhtiyar. Gen. Rajiha was an important figure because he was one of the few Christians at the top of the Syrian command structure, as well as being a prominent member of the inner circle. Assef Shawkat was married to the older sister of Bashar al-Assad was for a while seen as the strongman behind the scenes. Turkmani was a top troubleshooter, literally in this case, who was in charge of most of the torture campaigns in Syria. Ikhtiyar was a top member of the ruling Ba'ath party and as head of the national security bureau (a branch of the party) it means he is the guy who organizes all those pro-government militias who have been running around killing civilians. Al-Shaar was a former head of the military police and ran one of the most brutal prisons in Syria. So, all told, the rebels killed and wounded a hell of a lot of bad guys. This also means the rebels have made things very real for the government. This is on longer a fire to be put out, this is the building on fire.
On top of these deaths and injuries, two brigadier generals have left Syria for Turkey, bringing the total of generals there to 20. And that doesn't count the ones who have left for other countries or stayed in country to fight for the rebellion. While the government has claimed this was a suicide bomb, the rebels themselves are saying this was a bomb that was planted and set off remotely. Neither scenario is good since the bomb went off in the national security headquarters building. This means either a single suicide bomber was able to get past a LOT of security into a secure meeting room with a bomb large enough to create quite the crater. OR, the rebels were able to plant a large bomb without anyone noticing in a very secure meeting room. Either way, it means both the rebels are getting better at this and the security around the inner circle is starting to weaken. And considering the guys who usually run security for the inner circle of Syria are now dead or injured, this is only going to get worse. Al-Assad was quick to appoint a replacement for the Minister of Defense, but is probably still reeling from the effects of the attack on his staff. These guys were not low level scrubs, or even high level guys who weren't doing anything important, this was the inner circle of guys who were expert in crushing rebellions, insurgents, insurrectionists and all of that. Given that the intelligence chiefs, the Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Minister and prime minister were not there, that means they were talking about internal affairs. Given that it was the defense, interior and "national security", this was about dealing with the rebels. Which is why the first thing they did was talk about was the method of explosion.
Government reports all say suicide bombing rather than more conventional bombings because they are trying to terrify the people and convince them that barbarians are running the rebel show. While, yes, Syria has even paid for suicide bombings, they were against Israel, against whom there is no measure too far. However, using suicide bombing against fellow Muslims or Arabs would be a vulgar and more controversial act. It would also mean the rebels are simple, unsophisticated and generally a lesser enemy. If an enemy can plant a bomb in a meeting room in a secure facility, then that's real trouble. That's an enemy with a long term plan that can win. An enemy that's using suicide bombing against their own country is an enemy in trouble and running out of options. After much of the day passed, the government run media started to refer to it only as a bombing, and not a suicide bombing, which lends credibility to the idea that it was not just a suicide bomb. The Free Syria Army claimed responsibility for the bomb, as did a newer Liwa al-Islam, or the Islam Brigade. Ironically, one of the reasons the Liwa al-Islam's claim is being rejected is because this was not a sloppy job. The people who planned this were pros, used serious strategy and waited for the right time to get as many as possible. Or they were some of the luckiest terrorists of all time. Luck can happen in a battlefield, but a wise opponent never believes enemy actions are the result of luck.
This is a blow for Syrian pride. Syria had long been regarded as one of the best intelligence players in the Middle East, behind Israel and Iran. They are a client state/partner of Iran, who has been supplying them weapons and training for decades now. This was a group, not so many years ago, who assassinated Rafik Hariri, former prime minister and national hero of Lebanon. Syria managed to use Lebanon as a staging ground from which to launch attacks into Israel and let Lebanon take the brunt of Israel's fury. They had a nearly legendary intelligence and operations apparatus and this kind of attack is a public declaration that no one is safe in Syrian operations, especially those at the top of the food chain. There are reports confirming the Syrians were arming and training insurgent forces in Iraq to fight against the US military there, which is pretty easy to believe given the large border that Iraq and Syria share. In Syria's mind, they ruled the Levant, Iran had the eastern parts of the Middle East and Saudi Arabia ruled the Gulf. For a long time, they dealt well with Turkey, lorded it over Lebanon and tried for decades to get rid of Israel until they lost the Golan Heights. They were a key supporter of Hamas and other anti-Israeli terrorist groups, including funneling help from Iran and others to these groups, generally in the form of money and guns. And now the top guys at defense are dead, a top trouble shooter and a guy who organizes mobs is severely injured.
If this were a movie, this would be the end of the second act. The rebels used a very clever tactic, along with the bombings, they also attacked 17 other places at once. That kind of combination of decapitation strike and "zerg rush" is the best way to guarantee chaos, which is a group like Syria's worst nightmare. Killing the people who would normally the people coordinating the information on these kind of attacks then making lots of attacks is the best way to make use of a small divided force with limited resources. It is a bold application of the Sun-Tzu advice to combine the unorthodox and orthodox to achieve victory. It throws all facts into a state of uncertainty and makes the ordered bully have to retreat. How well did this work? There were reports floating that President Bashar al-Assad had fled the country (he hasn't been seen on TV since the attacks) and his wife had fled to Moscow (unconfirmed). Again, these are unconfirmed reports but the fact that these kinds of reports could be out there at all means that rebels are not just a scrappy little force that will get walloped, they will do damage. Let's be clear, there will be no large battles like American Civil War or even like Libya. This will be a war of attrition on both sides. However, with an occupied force trying to outlast occupiers, you bet on the occupied. After all, the rebels out there fighting are willing to fight and die for what they believe in and it's doubtful al-Assad has a lot of those kinds of people in his cabinet.
After all, they've probably been killed already.
So it is written, so do I see it.
On top of these deaths and injuries, two brigadier generals have left Syria for Turkey, bringing the total of generals there to 20. And that doesn't count the ones who have left for other countries or stayed in country to fight for the rebellion. While the government has claimed this was a suicide bomb, the rebels themselves are saying this was a bomb that was planted and set off remotely. Neither scenario is good since the bomb went off in the national security headquarters building. This means either a single suicide bomber was able to get past a LOT of security into a secure meeting room with a bomb large enough to create quite the crater. OR, the rebels were able to plant a large bomb without anyone noticing in a very secure meeting room. Either way, it means both the rebels are getting better at this and the security around the inner circle is starting to weaken. And considering the guys who usually run security for the inner circle of Syria are now dead or injured, this is only going to get worse. Al-Assad was quick to appoint a replacement for the Minister of Defense, but is probably still reeling from the effects of the attack on his staff. These guys were not low level scrubs, or even high level guys who weren't doing anything important, this was the inner circle of guys who were expert in crushing rebellions, insurgents, insurrectionists and all of that. Given that the intelligence chiefs, the Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Minister and prime minister were not there, that means they were talking about internal affairs. Given that it was the defense, interior and "national security", this was about dealing with the rebels. Which is why the first thing they did was talk about was the method of explosion.
Government reports all say suicide bombing rather than more conventional bombings because they are trying to terrify the people and convince them that barbarians are running the rebel show. While, yes, Syria has even paid for suicide bombings, they were against Israel, against whom there is no measure too far. However, using suicide bombing against fellow Muslims or Arabs would be a vulgar and more controversial act. It would also mean the rebels are simple, unsophisticated and generally a lesser enemy. If an enemy can plant a bomb in a meeting room in a secure facility, then that's real trouble. That's an enemy with a long term plan that can win. An enemy that's using suicide bombing against their own country is an enemy in trouble and running out of options. After much of the day passed, the government run media started to refer to it only as a bombing, and not a suicide bombing, which lends credibility to the idea that it was not just a suicide bomb. The Free Syria Army claimed responsibility for the bomb, as did a newer Liwa al-Islam, or the Islam Brigade. Ironically, one of the reasons the Liwa al-Islam's claim is being rejected is because this was not a sloppy job. The people who planned this were pros, used serious strategy and waited for the right time to get as many as possible. Or they were some of the luckiest terrorists of all time. Luck can happen in a battlefield, but a wise opponent never believes enemy actions are the result of luck.
This is a blow for Syrian pride. Syria had long been regarded as one of the best intelligence players in the Middle East, behind Israel and Iran. They are a client state/partner of Iran, who has been supplying them weapons and training for decades now. This was a group, not so many years ago, who assassinated Rafik Hariri, former prime minister and national hero of Lebanon. Syria managed to use Lebanon as a staging ground from which to launch attacks into Israel and let Lebanon take the brunt of Israel's fury. They had a nearly legendary intelligence and operations apparatus and this kind of attack is a public declaration that no one is safe in Syrian operations, especially those at the top of the food chain. There are reports confirming the Syrians were arming and training insurgent forces in Iraq to fight against the US military there, which is pretty easy to believe given the large border that Iraq and Syria share. In Syria's mind, they ruled the Levant, Iran had the eastern parts of the Middle East and Saudi Arabia ruled the Gulf. For a long time, they dealt well with Turkey, lorded it over Lebanon and tried for decades to get rid of Israel until they lost the Golan Heights. They were a key supporter of Hamas and other anti-Israeli terrorist groups, including funneling help from Iran and others to these groups, generally in the form of money and guns. And now the top guys at defense are dead, a top trouble shooter and a guy who organizes mobs is severely injured.
If this were a movie, this would be the end of the second act. The rebels used a very clever tactic, along with the bombings, they also attacked 17 other places at once. That kind of combination of decapitation strike and "zerg rush" is the best way to guarantee chaos, which is a group like Syria's worst nightmare. Killing the people who would normally the people coordinating the information on these kind of attacks then making lots of attacks is the best way to make use of a small divided force with limited resources. It is a bold application of the Sun-Tzu advice to combine the unorthodox and orthodox to achieve victory. It throws all facts into a state of uncertainty and makes the ordered bully have to retreat. How well did this work? There were reports floating that President Bashar al-Assad had fled the country (he hasn't been seen on TV since the attacks) and his wife had fled to Moscow (unconfirmed). Again, these are unconfirmed reports but the fact that these kinds of reports could be out there at all means that rebels are not just a scrappy little force that will get walloped, they will do damage. Let's be clear, there will be no large battles like American Civil War or even like Libya. This will be a war of attrition on both sides. However, with an occupied force trying to outlast occupiers, you bet on the occupied. After all, the rebels out there fighting are willing to fight and die for what they believe in and it's doubtful al-Assad has a lot of those kinds of people in his cabinet.
After all, they've probably been killed already.
So it is written, so do I see it.