You Said You Wanted Revolution
A little less than a week ago, the government of Tunisia fell apart to the tune of the president feeling the country and the prime minister stepping forward to say there will be new elections in 60 days. The interim president said that he planned a clean break from the past and wanted a revolution based on "dignity and equality" for all. Some have called for a new constitution, a new government and a new everything so long as things are being changed, to the point where four minsters have walked out of talks to form an interim government because too many old symbols from the old regime were being used. Clashes between troops and the former president's personal security guards have been reported, as well as rioting, looting and, oddly enough, peaceful protests. The eyes of much of the world are watching since this is the most recent popular uprising in an Arab country. Previously, there was a Ministry of Information that was tasked with banning all kinds of information and cracking down on the press. This has now been eliminated and political prisoners are being freed, as well as previously banned political parties being reinstated. It's the kind of revolution that Bush predicted would start happening after we liberated Iraq. This could be start of the wave of democratization that could engulf the Middle East and turn every would be fundamentalist regime into a liberal democracy/republic with freedom, rights and puppies for all. Or, given the actual history of the Middle East, it could turn into a popularly elected fundamentalist regime with some rights for some and oppression and funding terror for others. Between this and events in Lebanon revolution in the Arab world might be the thing to watch.
As usual, we're jumping in during the middle of story, so let's go back to the beginning. Tunisia was once home to another troublesome city, Carthage. let' skip past 2000 years of history and say that all kinds of people wanted, and took over, this little country in north Africa for its great trade route on the Mediterranean and general crossroads of the world location. In recent times, Tunisia was ruled by the French until 1957 when they broke away. Technically, it's a republic with a multi-party system, full representation and all that, but practically it's been run by one political party Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). Kind of like how PRI ruled Mexico for decades, RCD set up the government so it could never really be voted out of power and could do what they wanted. They got away with this for so long by being anti-Communist in the 70s and 80s and anti-terrorism these days. There are laws against polygamy and unilateral divorce, which are both common in other countries with Islamic law, but there are other human rights not respected. President (now former) Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has been in power since 1987 and this has been a good time to be related to him. Various brothers, cousins and other relatives were given positions of power and wealth with no real oversight. The First Lady practically went the Imelda Marcos route of shopping until something dropped. While Tunisia's people keep staying poor, their ruling family kept living it up with ice cream flown in daily and luxuries from all over Europe.
All of this came to a head when a fruit stand vendor had his stand taken away from him, most likely in an attempt to solicit a bribe (not uncommon). His response, however, led to something greater. He not only protested the government, but when that didn't work, he set himself on fire. He didn't make a sing, he didn't sing a song, he lit himself on fire. This, predictably got attention. He died a week and half or so later, but that was just before things got bad. His self-immolation set off a wave of sympathy protests in Egypt and Yemen and helped mobilize the people of Tunisia. Violent protests began that were too big for the government to contain, so Ben Ali and his family fled to France (hey, now that Duvalier has left, think he'll take over his place?) to see what happens. Odds are, they're not going back and will have to live on whatever money they managed to squirrel away in the mere 24 years of rule. Interim governments are trying to come together, but the real test will come in about two months when new elections are going to be held. Ben Ali won the most recent election in 2009 capturing about 90% of the vote. Capturing being the operative word, his opponents supported him and there were humongous posters of him all over but other political parties couldn't have any posters. Journalists were thrown in jail and the coverage that was allowed was all pro Ben Ali. So he won, now he's gone and there's a giant feeling of "well, where do we go form here?"
And that's what the rest of the world is waiting on. Could this be like Turkey, which had a full on revolution and became a secular Muslim state that can deal with everyone. Could this be like Lebanon, which has gone back and forth and side to side so much they're in chaos an hated by both Israel AND Israel's enemies. Or could this be like Palestine, which has had successively more destructive leaders in government each time elections are held. If Saudi Arabia had elections tomorrow, no one could predict what the outcome would be. It would depend entirely on who was allowed to vote, how things were going recently and how loudly the clerics were allowed to scream. Iraq seems to be going at least two directions at once whenever they have elections. Lebanon has really strict laws to keep all the various groups with power in constant check. So far, all the right things are being said. They want elections fast and to set up a new constitution. These are both good since a) this gives outsiders less time to influence the elections and b) fewer people will know the loopholes to manipulate to get the result they want. Right now, EVERYONE has skin in the game and it looks like no one is willing to give that up for a little security. Unlike Lebanon and Palestine, they really don't have to deal with Israel. They have great trade agreements with France (under a French law that provides beneficial trade recognition for former colonies) and have acted as an intermediary between the EU and the Arab League before. If this goes into full on democracy/republic, they would look better than Egypt, the traditional leaders of the Arab political world and could pull off a status power play.
Could this trigger a wave of revolutions as people in other countries see Tunisians get more rights that they lack? Maybe, but doubtful. Most Jordanians are doing okay, most Lebanese have too much else to worry about, most Syrians are pretty well oppressed, ditto Iran, Saudi Arabia and others. The UAE and the small Gulf states, maybe, but it's doubtful because they're either doing all right on an individual level OR they're doing so badly it would take outside help to have a real revolution. Plus, no two revolutions are ever the same. Look at the US and France. Both revolutions, both tried to form new governments, the US lasted and France's attempt at new government devolved into Napoleon within a generation. Plus, no two republics are the same. What do we do if everything is above board legally and they elect the Tunisian version of David Duke? What if they elect a Western facing president who decides he likes the EU but hates the US? What is certain is that the government, at first, will be far more responsive to the people; revolutions have that effect. Not knowing what the will of this people is what will keep this a wild card for sometime to come. It'll be an election with everything from communists to devotees of Shari'a. They will not have too much time to plan, so odds are they're planning now and dusting off old candidates to make a run for the presidency and parliament.
And it will be fun to watch.
So it is written, so do I see it.
As usual, we're jumping in during the middle of story, so let's go back to the beginning. Tunisia was once home to another troublesome city, Carthage. let' skip past 2000 years of history and say that all kinds of people wanted, and took over, this little country in north Africa for its great trade route on the Mediterranean and general crossroads of the world location. In recent times, Tunisia was ruled by the French until 1957 when they broke away. Technically, it's a republic with a multi-party system, full representation and all that, but practically it's been run by one political party Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). Kind of like how PRI ruled Mexico for decades, RCD set up the government so it could never really be voted out of power and could do what they wanted. They got away with this for so long by being anti-Communist in the 70s and 80s and anti-terrorism these days. There are laws against polygamy and unilateral divorce, which are both common in other countries with Islamic law, but there are other human rights not respected. President (now former) Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has been in power since 1987 and this has been a good time to be related to him. Various brothers, cousins and other relatives were given positions of power and wealth with no real oversight. The First Lady practically went the Imelda Marcos route of shopping until something dropped. While Tunisia's people keep staying poor, their ruling family kept living it up with ice cream flown in daily and luxuries from all over Europe.
All of this came to a head when a fruit stand vendor had his stand taken away from him, most likely in an attempt to solicit a bribe (not uncommon). His response, however, led to something greater. He not only protested the government, but when that didn't work, he set himself on fire. He didn't make a sing, he didn't sing a song, he lit himself on fire. This, predictably got attention. He died a week and half or so later, but that was just before things got bad. His self-immolation set off a wave of sympathy protests in Egypt and Yemen and helped mobilize the people of Tunisia. Violent protests began that were too big for the government to contain, so Ben Ali and his family fled to France (hey, now that Duvalier has left, think he'll take over his place?) to see what happens. Odds are, they're not going back and will have to live on whatever money they managed to squirrel away in the mere 24 years of rule. Interim governments are trying to come together, but the real test will come in about two months when new elections are going to be held. Ben Ali won the most recent election in 2009 capturing about 90% of the vote. Capturing being the operative word, his opponents supported him and there were humongous posters of him all over but other political parties couldn't have any posters. Journalists were thrown in jail and the coverage that was allowed was all pro Ben Ali. So he won, now he's gone and there's a giant feeling of "well, where do we go form here?"
And that's what the rest of the world is waiting on. Could this be like Turkey, which had a full on revolution and became a secular Muslim state that can deal with everyone. Could this be like Lebanon, which has gone back and forth and side to side so much they're in chaos an hated by both Israel AND Israel's enemies. Or could this be like Palestine, which has had successively more destructive leaders in government each time elections are held. If Saudi Arabia had elections tomorrow, no one could predict what the outcome would be. It would depend entirely on who was allowed to vote, how things were going recently and how loudly the clerics were allowed to scream. Iraq seems to be going at least two directions at once whenever they have elections. Lebanon has really strict laws to keep all the various groups with power in constant check. So far, all the right things are being said. They want elections fast and to set up a new constitution. These are both good since a) this gives outsiders less time to influence the elections and b) fewer people will know the loopholes to manipulate to get the result they want. Right now, EVERYONE has skin in the game and it looks like no one is willing to give that up for a little security. Unlike Lebanon and Palestine, they really don't have to deal with Israel. They have great trade agreements with France (under a French law that provides beneficial trade recognition for former colonies) and have acted as an intermediary between the EU and the Arab League before. If this goes into full on democracy/republic, they would look better than Egypt, the traditional leaders of the Arab political world and could pull off a status power play.
Could this trigger a wave of revolutions as people in other countries see Tunisians get more rights that they lack? Maybe, but doubtful. Most Jordanians are doing okay, most Lebanese have too much else to worry about, most Syrians are pretty well oppressed, ditto Iran, Saudi Arabia and others. The UAE and the small Gulf states, maybe, but it's doubtful because they're either doing all right on an individual level OR they're doing so badly it would take outside help to have a real revolution. Plus, no two revolutions are ever the same. Look at the US and France. Both revolutions, both tried to form new governments, the US lasted and France's attempt at new government devolved into Napoleon within a generation. Plus, no two republics are the same. What do we do if everything is above board legally and they elect the Tunisian version of David Duke? What if they elect a Western facing president who decides he likes the EU but hates the US? What is certain is that the government, at first, will be far more responsive to the people; revolutions have that effect. Not knowing what the will of this people is what will keep this a wild card for sometime to come. It'll be an election with everything from communists to devotees of Shari'a. They will not have too much time to plan, so odds are they're planning now and dusting off old candidates to make a run for the presidency and parliament.
And it will be fun to watch.
So it is written, so do I see it.