Know When to Fold 'Em
Just as the Democratic primaries were threatening to dominate all the political headlines, the Republicans managed to make some noise at their Nevada state convention. Now, this isn't getting nearly as much attention as it should. What happened, in a nutshell, was at the state Republican convention, there were a lot of supporters for Ron Paul and they ran wild in the place. Nevada, for those paying attention, is caucus state, which means when they held their caucuses earlier this year, they did not directly elect delegates. Each caucus site elects an elector to go to the state convention. The vote at the individual caucus site determines whose elector gets sent, whether it's an elector for McCain, Romney, Paul or whomever. In the Nevada caucuses, Romney won big, followed by Ron Paul then John McCain. Now, Romney has pulled out, which means his electors are allowed to either a) stay home or b)vote how they feel. Romney pulled in 41% of the vote, Paul got 14% and McCain 13%. What ended up happening was the Paul electors turned up in force, they won some procedural votes, started getting randomly loud, cheered like crazy when Paul himself showed up and eventually ended up shouting down the chairman of the convention. As this went on, the business of the convention got delayed, so much so the chairman closed the convention down with no time given for when it would be reconvened. Leaving the boisterous and organized Paul supporters wondering when they're going to have their day. And their day will not be pretty.
Unlike Romney, Huckabee and many others, Paul has never officially dropped out of the race. Dr. Ron Paul has remained in the race, mostly for the purpose of still being allowed to speak and getting a place at the national convention in August. His supporters, many of whom are those not normally inclined to vote in a mainstream election for a mainstream candidate, are now feeling empowered to come out of the woodwork and change the course of the Republican party. Paul's supporters, well known as being organized, a little fanatic and a fan of most politics, came out in force for the state convention. They were as loud and as energetic as ever, but not appreciative of how political processes have to go. They were definitely not looking for a meeting being run according to Robert's Rules of Order. After all, they are the face of the politics that wants to take back the government for the people, or some such. And sitting still during floor votes is not very in line with that.
Paul managed to tap into, and at the same time stir up, a lot of festering resentment of Republicans about George W. Bush and the policies that have expanded government power massively. They aren't concerned about any issues in a way that would make them liberal (for example, not big on welfare, want to remove as much overseas military as possible and other "over reaching" government programs), but are strong right-wingers and are very pissed off. They feel betrayed by their party and they get attacked by Democrats for being too conservative, which is usually just fine by them. They see this election as their last, best hope for electing a politician who will take back government from special interests and limit government power. Unless it comes to policing borders, then anything goes, with many of these guys. They were once relegated to the outskirts of the internet, chatrooms and small gathering places, but they got airtime in mainstream media, Paul was on Meet the Press and they're not about the to let that go. Since most of their gains have been though yelling over the usual political dialog, they're going to go to their strengths.
Republicans should be a little freaked out about this. After all, here is a sizable group of Republicans still willing to go the mattresses over a candidate that has now fallen to "also running", if that much at all. Paul has run a few times over the past few elections, gotten single digits at best in the popular vote. The popularity of his campaign imploded after some unfortunate remarks that were at the least made in his name came to light, as well as his disastrous appearance on Meet the Press. So, many of the "Johnny come lately" fans of Ron Paul have moved on to other endeavors, leaving only the most hardcore followers still going. And when it comes to electors at the conventions, national or state, a smart candidate picks the most hardcore and least likely to be swayed. So, they are going to try everything they can to gain the upper hand, and winning over a state convention where they might actually send a lot of representatives for Paul to the national convention is a great step for them.
With 41% of the delegates at this convention being up for grabs, the Paul people had a chance to win and have ONE state that went for Paul, and thus have SEATED delegations for Ron Paul at the National Republican Convention. This means they could, like they did here, start taking over the votes about the rules and thus set the agenda, which would mean more floor time for Paul and his supporters. The Republicans should count themselves lucky these guys were effectively amateurs, because if they made total effective use of their leverage, they could have effectively over ruled the will of many people in Nevada and won delegates on a floor fight. What is scary, is that if they learn from this episode, the Paul will do this again at the national convention, since there will be lots of delegates for candidates who have since dropped out of the race who will be up for grabs (for example, Huckabee won Iowa, but he's out, so his delegates are free. As are those delegates from other states where McCain didn't win) and Paul may end up with a sizable coterie.
The Republican Convention, in the face of dealing with this kind of chaos they are making fun of the Democrats for, shut down the convention early. It is highly doubtful they would attempt this at the national convention, but they may shut down one night of it early. Nevada still has to hold a state convention to decide the state's delegates, but has not announced a date for this. Odds are on them waiting until the last minute to schedule this so only the insider party hacks, which the Paul people are NOT, will be able to attend are pretty high. The Paul people, from all accounts, were out of hand and were louder than normal decorum for these things. They shouted over the chairman, so he couldn't get anything done, so he felt he had no choice but to shut down the convention. He cited the contract with the hotel for the space and audio-visual equipment ended at 6. Note, those kinds of things are pretty expensive and billed by the hour. The chairman may have been right to call this thing to a halt if it were clear to him that he would have gotten nothing else done. The Paul people may have been right to keep screaming since that was how they got anywhere any how.
But it was wrong for the media to effectively ignore this.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Unlike Romney, Huckabee and many others, Paul has never officially dropped out of the race. Dr. Ron Paul has remained in the race, mostly for the purpose of still being allowed to speak and getting a place at the national convention in August. His supporters, many of whom are those not normally inclined to vote in a mainstream election for a mainstream candidate, are now feeling empowered to come out of the woodwork and change the course of the Republican party. Paul's supporters, well known as being organized, a little fanatic and a fan of most politics, came out in force for the state convention. They were as loud and as energetic as ever, but not appreciative of how political processes have to go. They were definitely not looking for a meeting being run according to Robert's Rules of Order. After all, they are the face of the politics that wants to take back the government for the people, or some such. And sitting still during floor votes is not very in line with that.
Paul managed to tap into, and at the same time stir up, a lot of festering resentment of Republicans about George W. Bush and the policies that have expanded government power massively. They aren't concerned about any issues in a way that would make them liberal (for example, not big on welfare, want to remove as much overseas military as possible and other "over reaching" government programs), but are strong right-wingers and are very pissed off. They feel betrayed by their party and they get attacked by Democrats for being too conservative, which is usually just fine by them. They see this election as their last, best hope for electing a politician who will take back government from special interests and limit government power. Unless it comes to policing borders, then anything goes, with many of these guys. They were once relegated to the outskirts of the internet, chatrooms and small gathering places, but they got airtime in mainstream media, Paul was on Meet the Press and they're not about the to let that go. Since most of their gains have been though yelling over the usual political dialog, they're going to go to their strengths.
Republicans should be a little freaked out about this. After all, here is a sizable group of Republicans still willing to go the mattresses over a candidate that has now fallen to "also running", if that much at all. Paul has run a few times over the past few elections, gotten single digits at best in the popular vote. The popularity of his campaign imploded after some unfortunate remarks that were at the least made in his name came to light, as well as his disastrous appearance on Meet the Press. So, many of the "Johnny come lately" fans of Ron Paul have moved on to other endeavors, leaving only the most hardcore followers still going. And when it comes to electors at the conventions, national or state, a smart candidate picks the most hardcore and least likely to be swayed. So, they are going to try everything they can to gain the upper hand, and winning over a state convention where they might actually send a lot of representatives for Paul to the national convention is a great step for them.
With 41% of the delegates at this convention being up for grabs, the Paul people had a chance to win and have ONE state that went for Paul, and thus have SEATED delegations for Ron Paul at the National Republican Convention. This means they could, like they did here, start taking over the votes about the rules and thus set the agenda, which would mean more floor time for Paul and his supporters. The Republicans should count themselves lucky these guys were effectively amateurs, because if they made total effective use of their leverage, they could have effectively over ruled the will of many people in Nevada and won delegates on a floor fight. What is scary, is that if they learn from this episode, the Paul will do this again at the national convention, since there will be lots of delegates for candidates who have since dropped out of the race who will be up for grabs (for example, Huckabee won Iowa, but he's out, so his delegates are free. As are those delegates from other states where McCain didn't win) and Paul may end up with a sizable coterie.
The Republican Convention, in the face of dealing with this kind of chaos they are making fun of the Democrats for, shut down the convention early. It is highly doubtful they would attempt this at the national convention, but they may shut down one night of it early. Nevada still has to hold a state convention to decide the state's delegates, but has not announced a date for this. Odds are on them waiting until the last minute to schedule this so only the insider party hacks, which the Paul people are NOT, will be able to attend are pretty high. The Paul people, from all accounts, were out of hand and were louder than normal decorum for these things. They shouted over the chairman, so he couldn't get anything done, so he felt he had no choice but to shut down the convention. He cited the contract with the hotel for the space and audio-visual equipment ended at 6. Note, those kinds of things are pretty expensive and billed by the hour. The chairman may have been right to call this thing to a halt if it were clear to him that he would have gotten nothing else done. The Paul people may have been right to keep screaming since that was how they got anywhere any how.
But it was wrong for the media to effectively ignore this.
So it is written, so do I see it.