Victory and Confusion
As of this writing, there is no clear cut winner in the Ohio and Texas primaries for the Democrats, and it's looking like Obama will take Texas and Clinton will take Ohio. Obama has won Vermont, not a large surprise, and Clinton has won Rhode Island, again not a large surprise. McCain, on the other hand, has mathematically sewn up the Republican nomination, and has even gotten Huckabee's concession and his official speech quitting the presidential race. McCain is meeting Bush tomorrow, and probably around noon Eastern time, will be formally endorsed/blessed by President Bush. Many Republicans are saying to get it out of the way early to make it clear the Republicans are united and the Democrats are in disarray, but also so McCain can run away from Bush when he needs to without looking like he's bolting the party. The Democrats will still not have a clear front runner in all this, and indeed each will fight on until the August convention. Of course, each side will do it all for the reasons I've laid out previously, mostly that Americans like fighting for hope of their cause rather than being "reasonable". Obama will contend that he has momentum on his side, Clinton will contend she has stopped his momentum and both will try to win Pennsylvania. They will have seven weeks to comb the Keystone State and drum up support and make pretty speeches. No clear victors, no clear losers but all kinds of fun.
So, Obama didn't close the deal and Clinton managed to make the "kitchen sink" campaign work. The race goes on as it always does. There will be more press scrutiny paid to Obama, which the Clinton people want, and Clinton may continue to look petty and petulant, which the Obama people would want. Oh, and McCain will want both of these to happen for as long as possible. Obama is now going to start taking fire for not being able to close the deal against Clinton, and rightfully so. He will get pressure to go more negative on Clinton, as she will turn up the attacks, noting what has worked. So, this could get uglier before it gets over. It will be the surest test of Obama's integrity to stay positive and hopeful. It would be easy to be hopeful and talk about a new tomorrow when things are going well, it's in these moments that the test of a man is taken. This is also a test for Clinton. Can she, now that she may have stopped Obama's momentum, tone down the rhetoric to prove her own worth and not just her ability to bring down someone else? Can Clinton prove she knows how to hold onto a possible lead and can Obama prove that he doesn't need momentum to win? As the Democratic primary race enters its third act, it will have to compete with the Republican primary race being over.
McCain, once counted out of the Republican politics and out of this race, has now mathematically secured the nomination. True to his word, Huckabee dropped out of the race and gracefully bowed out as much as he could. It was noted by Huckabee, the two cleanest and least fear based campaigns in the Republican race lasted the longest. Giuliani's campaign, arguably the most fear based, died first, followed by Thompson and Romney, who ran one of the most negative Republican primary campaigns since 1980 when it was Bush vs Reagan. They fell, Huckabee and McCain, who practically ran ads for each other, are now done fighting and now McCain is trying to bring the party together, and he'll be pretty successful. He won't try a lot of fake kowtowing to the extreme Religious Right, since everyone knows he's not one of them. He'll make his speeches, but he's not going to randomly come out with an abortion ban amendment or a massive flat tax cut proposal. He'll make some hard conservative speeches and motions, but nothing going overboard. They'll use Bush in some targeted areas, but most of this is going to be on McCain' shoulders. As they now pray for the convention to come soon so a VP candidate can be officially named so they can tag team together.
So, tonight sealed things for the Republicans and muddied things for the Democrats, which is in many ways business as usual for the political parties. The Democrats will keep bloodying each other and the Republican will be able to stay above the fray. Of course, some Democrats are already saying Hillary should drop out now, despite winning Ohio. While I am an Obama fan, this seems a little premature. Obama's running a great race, but so is Hillary, so they will run on in Pennsylvania. A key swing state in the national election, Pennsylvania will be covered for the better part of two months by the Democrats while McCain can pretty well stay well out of it. But the fight for the Democratic soul is harder to seal up. The Republicans are evolving to a point beyond Bush and into more independent territory, while the Democrats have to make a simple yet difficult choice: hope versus despair and a new vision versus reliable fighting techniques. Republicans never have to make this choice, they tend to go right for reliable fighting. And perhaps there is no simple answer to this in the long run, but there will be one this year.
Of course, it might not come until August.
So it is written, so do I see it.
So, Obama didn't close the deal and Clinton managed to make the "kitchen sink" campaign work. The race goes on as it always does. There will be more press scrutiny paid to Obama, which the Clinton people want, and Clinton may continue to look petty and petulant, which the Obama people would want. Oh, and McCain will want both of these to happen for as long as possible. Obama is now going to start taking fire for not being able to close the deal against Clinton, and rightfully so. He will get pressure to go more negative on Clinton, as she will turn up the attacks, noting what has worked. So, this could get uglier before it gets over. It will be the surest test of Obama's integrity to stay positive and hopeful. It would be easy to be hopeful and talk about a new tomorrow when things are going well, it's in these moments that the test of a man is taken. This is also a test for Clinton. Can she, now that she may have stopped Obama's momentum, tone down the rhetoric to prove her own worth and not just her ability to bring down someone else? Can Clinton prove she knows how to hold onto a possible lead and can Obama prove that he doesn't need momentum to win? As the Democratic primary race enters its third act, it will have to compete with the Republican primary race being over.
McCain, once counted out of the Republican politics and out of this race, has now mathematically secured the nomination. True to his word, Huckabee dropped out of the race and gracefully bowed out as much as he could. It was noted by Huckabee, the two cleanest and least fear based campaigns in the Republican race lasted the longest. Giuliani's campaign, arguably the most fear based, died first, followed by Thompson and Romney, who ran one of the most negative Republican primary campaigns since 1980 when it was Bush vs Reagan. They fell, Huckabee and McCain, who practically ran ads for each other, are now done fighting and now McCain is trying to bring the party together, and he'll be pretty successful. He won't try a lot of fake kowtowing to the extreme Religious Right, since everyone knows he's not one of them. He'll make his speeches, but he's not going to randomly come out with an abortion ban amendment or a massive flat tax cut proposal. He'll make some hard conservative speeches and motions, but nothing going overboard. They'll use Bush in some targeted areas, but most of this is going to be on McCain' shoulders. As they now pray for the convention to come soon so a VP candidate can be officially named so they can tag team together.
So, tonight sealed things for the Republicans and muddied things for the Democrats, which is in many ways business as usual for the political parties. The Democrats will keep bloodying each other and the Republican will be able to stay above the fray. Of course, some Democrats are already saying Hillary should drop out now, despite winning Ohio. While I am an Obama fan, this seems a little premature. Obama's running a great race, but so is Hillary, so they will run on in Pennsylvania. A key swing state in the national election, Pennsylvania will be covered for the better part of two months by the Democrats while McCain can pretty well stay well out of it. But the fight for the Democratic soul is harder to seal up. The Republicans are evolving to a point beyond Bush and into more independent territory, while the Democrats have to make a simple yet difficult choice: hope versus despair and a new vision versus reliable fighting techniques. Republicans never have to make this choice, they tend to go right for reliable fighting. And perhaps there is no simple answer to this in the long run, but there will be one this year.
Of course, it might not come until August.
So it is written, so do I see it.