Battle of Toledo
Toledo, Ohio. A town/city of about 300,000 (which is dropping) where both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton spent part of the day. It's the fourth largest city in Ohio and the 57th largest city in the United States. It's on Lake Erie and the Maumee River, so it has served as a port in times past and is one of the largest railroad hubs in the country. 60 miles south of Detroit, it's known as the Glass City for the large amounts of glass manufacturing that were once based out of there, mostly for the automotive industry. There's a Jeep plant at the north end of town and a Chrysler plant at the south end of town. It's the epitome of rust belt town that once had better days and now has to just survive. It's also a town that for weeks gave more money to Hillary Clinton, but for the past month has given more money to Barack Obama. By most kinds of demographics, it should be going right to Clinton in a walk, but instead is trending to Barack Obama. Of course, it's not a forgone conclusion how Toledo, Ohio will vote, but it is interesting to watch as a bellwether for the rest of the country fighting it out. So, as microcosm of the rest of the country, let's examine Toledo.
Toledo, Ohio is probably most notable for being the birthplace of actress Katie Holmes, but is also the birthplace of PJ O'Rourke and Gloria Steinem, so the political schizophrenia is evident from just those facts alone. A traditionally liberal city in a moderate to conservative county in a swing state. Never elected a woman mayor, but they elected Marcy Kaptur since 1982 by large margins (generally over 70%) and they elected a black mayor, before going back to a previous mayor. The town is about one quarter Catholic a demographic that has favored Clinton in some past contests, but 41% of the population is between 25 and 54 years old, a demographic that has favored Obama. The stats are misleading here, but much of the city's residents are Caucasian especially from Eatern Europe. German, Polish and Hungarian are the biggest groups, with Irish, Lebanese and Greek making up large minorities. Blacks make up about a quarter of the population and Latinos make up about 5%. All that said, race crimes have been pretty rare in Toledo, unlike Detroit just to the north. But to physically see Toledo is to understand why, the very topography of the town is depressing enough to make one rethinking hating one's neighbor. After all, driving him out only means you win Toledo, Ohio.
Financially, Toledo is no real powerhouse. Unemployment has been hovering around 7%, which is higher than the national average. Median income is about 33K a year, which is below Ohio's average of 44,000 a year, which is lower than the United States median income of about $48,000 a year. Average home values are about 75% of the rest of Ohio, and about 15% of the families are below the poverty line. Home ownership is lower than statistics on line can show, with foreclosures skyrocketing in the past year. Many of those working are members of a union, especially the UAW. Only 17% of the population has earned a bachelor's degree or above, with 34% only with a high school diploma or equivalent. It is a working class town with a university in the middle of it, that many in the town can't afford. With so much of the workforce as union car manufacturers, is it any wonder that both Obama and Clinton have been bashing NAFTA as often as possible? Toledo's a blue collar town Democrats have counted on for years and haven't blinked twice about electing women or minorities if they thought the candidate was worthy of their votes to begin with. It's a place that has swung from Clinton to Obama in recent weeks without a massive shift in population. And given it's union, Catholic and less educated roots, it's a place that should be heavy Clinton territory.
This is not to say that Obama has a guaranteed sweep of the Glass City, or even if so he has a clean sweep of all of Ohio. But, if he can turn a city that was classically Hillary to being for him, then that's noteworthy. Likewise, if Hillary ends up taking Toledo back from Barack, then that's a story as well. Obama would need to do well in the groups he's captured a slight majority in to take the sure lead. Odds are, there aren't going to be specific break downs of how Toledo, Ohio or Lucas county voted until days after the election is over, but it will be fun to pick apart. A month ago, Clinton was ahead in Ohio by 20 points, now most polls have Obama within 4 points. It's the old pattern of Hillary having better name recognition, so she polls better, but Obama campaigns and spends time in a state and the polls start going his way. In Maryland, Obama managed to pull in the Catholic vote to his side, but he was less successful in Minnesota. Clinton has now tried to mirror his tactic by appearing on Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show in an effort to court younger voters, a sign she knows her base is not as large and as a strong as it once was, but a sign she's not ready to throw in the towel. He's been campaigning hard and responding to her ads as much as he can, a sure sign he's taking no votes for granted.
If Obama does manage to turn Toledo, it will be because he, again, managed to cut into Hillary's once base. If Hillary does manage to hang on to Toledo, it will mean the race is nowhere near over for Barack Obama and there will be blood until the Puerto Rico primary in June. If Obama can take a town like Toledo, it does bode well for the general election, for while Toledo went for Kerry last time, it's also a town without lots of hope. It's a town more used to fighting for every inch they have left. They fight NAFTA to keep as many jobs there as possible, even if it means cutting off OTHER jobs that are helped by more trade. If a town that's more used to fighting to can see its way clear to vote for a man who promises a future of hope as opposed to a woman who promises to fight and draw blood, then the tenor of politics will show another sign of changing. If Hillary holds on to Toledo through all of this, it means just hope is not enough and that winning at all costs is more important to voters. As Toledo lies dying like so many other places, like Utica in Sen. Clinton's state or Joliet in Sen. Obama's, it will answer in quick snapshot what the entire country could be asking itself over the course of the next months.
Is is better to hope and possibly lose, or despair and probably win?
So it is written, so do I see it.
Toledo, Ohio is probably most notable for being the birthplace of actress Katie Holmes, but is also the birthplace of PJ O'Rourke and Gloria Steinem, so the political schizophrenia is evident from just those facts alone. A traditionally liberal city in a moderate to conservative county in a swing state. Never elected a woman mayor, but they elected Marcy Kaptur since 1982 by large margins (generally over 70%) and they elected a black mayor, before going back to a previous mayor. The town is about one quarter Catholic a demographic that has favored Clinton in some past contests, but 41% of the population is between 25 and 54 years old, a demographic that has favored Obama. The stats are misleading here, but much of the city's residents are Caucasian especially from Eatern Europe. German, Polish and Hungarian are the biggest groups, with Irish, Lebanese and Greek making up large minorities. Blacks make up about a quarter of the population and Latinos make up about 5%. All that said, race crimes have been pretty rare in Toledo, unlike Detroit just to the north. But to physically see Toledo is to understand why, the very topography of the town is depressing enough to make one rethinking hating one's neighbor. After all, driving him out only means you win Toledo, Ohio.
Financially, Toledo is no real powerhouse. Unemployment has been hovering around 7%, which is higher than the national average. Median income is about 33K a year, which is below Ohio's average of 44,000 a year, which is lower than the United States median income of about $48,000 a year. Average home values are about 75% of the rest of Ohio, and about 15% of the families are below the poverty line. Home ownership is lower than statistics on line can show, with foreclosures skyrocketing in the past year. Many of those working are members of a union, especially the UAW. Only 17% of the population has earned a bachelor's degree or above, with 34% only with a high school diploma or equivalent. It is a working class town with a university in the middle of it, that many in the town can't afford. With so much of the workforce as union car manufacturers, is it any wonder that both Obama and Clinton have been bashing NAFTA as often as possible? Toledo's a blue collar town Democrats have counted on for years and haven't blinked twice about electing women or minorities if they thought the candidate was worthy of their votes to begin with. It's a place that has swung from Clinton to Obama in recent weeks without a massive shift in population. And given it's union, Catholic and less educated roots, it's a place that should be heavy Clinton territory.
This is not to say that Obama has a guaranteed sweep of the Glass City, or even if so he has a clean sweep of all of Ohio. But, if he can turn a city that was classically Hillary to being for him, then that's noteworthy. Likewise, if Hillary ends up taking Toledo back from Barack, then that's a story as well. Obama would need to do well in the groups he's captured a slight majority in to take the sure lead. Odds are, there aren't going to be specific break downs of how Toledo, Ohio or Lucas county voted until days after the election is over, but it will be fun to pick apart. A month ago, Clinton was ahead in Ohio by 20 points, now most polls have Obama within 4 points. It's the old pattern of Hillary having better name recognition, so she polls better, but Obama campaigns and spends time in a state and the polls start going his way. In Maryland, Obama managed to pull in the Catholic vote to his side, but he was less successful in Minnesota. Clinton has now tried to mirror his tactic by appearing on Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show in an effort to court younger voters, a sign she knows her base is not as large and as a strong as it once was, but a sign she's not ready to throw in the towel. He's been campaigning hard and responding to her ads as much as he can, a sure sign he's taking no votes for granted.
If Obama does manage to turn Toledo, it will be because he, again, managed to cut into Hillary's once base. If Hillary does manage to hang on to Toledo, it will mean the race is nowhere near over for Barack Obama and there will be blood until the Puerto Rico primary in June. If Obama can take a town like Toledo, it does bode well for the general election, for while Toledo went for Kerry last time, it's also a town without lots of hope. It's a town more used to fighting for every inch they have left. They fight NAFTA to keep as many jobs there as possible, even if it means cutting off OTHER jobs that are helped by more trade. If a town that's more used to fighting to can see its way clear to vote for a man who promises a future of hope as opposed to a woman who promises to fight and draw blood, then the tenor of politics will show another sign of changing. If Hillary holds on to Toledo through all of this, it means just hope is not enough and that winning at all costs is more important to voters. As Toledo lies dying like so many other places, like Utica in Sen. Clinton's state or Joliet in Sen. Obama's, it will answer in quick snapshot what the entire country could be asking itself over the course of the next months.
Is is better to hope and possibly lose, or despair and probably win?
So it is written, so do I see it.