The Texas Two Step
Oh, if only it were just a Texas two step. The Texas primaries are almost upon us and it would behoove us to examine the Texas primaries. The Ohio primary system is pretty straight forward, so we'll hold off on that. The Texas primary has more complicated laws, rules and generally more confusion than should be allowed in any electoral process trying to call itself fair. Some states have primaries, which is an election to determine how many delegates are awarded, in proportion, from a state to each candidate. Some states have a caucus, which is when voters come together at a designated time in a designated place and have a vote then and there about which proportions delegates are awarded. These are easily understood. However, what Texas has is an ungodly marriage of all of these, plus a system of superdelegates. Or rather, unpledged delegates, if you prefer. But it is a mathematical nightmare for the 161 delegates at stake in the Lone Star State. Texas cannot be content with just having an open election or a simple caucus and deciding their delegates that way. No, the land of the Alamo has to put more a fight to get their delegates. A full ten page list of the rules is available here.
First off, delegates are decided not in a general decision, but by Texas Senatorial district (31 in all), which determines local representation at the state level. A careful observer will note that 31 does not go into 161 evenly. 35 of those are superdelegates, so this leaves 126, which still doesn't divide the delegates evenly among the districts. That's okay, the noble Texans took this into account. 75% of the available delegates are awarded proportionally based on how fervently they have voted Democratic in the past. You take the percentage that district voted as a portion of the total Democratic vote of the state in the last presidential election and average it with same percentage of the last gubernatorial (governor) race. For example, if a district accounted for 5% of the total Democratic vote in presidential race and 9% of the total Democratic vote in the governor race, that district would get 7% of the proportioned delegates. Yes, it doesn't matter what current poll or population is, it is only based on how the district previously voted.
A note is deserved here about the Texas districts. They are pretty messed up, even the Supreme Court has said they need to clean it up. And they've needed to clean it up for the past few years. There is a district, the 23rd district that stretches from the border of Mexico into the heart of Austin, over 300 miles away. It is also notable that this one district contains a disproportionate number of Hispanics, notably low despite its massive size. This has been an ongoing fight since 2003 (this site has a full reference set of every court opinion handed down about this issue). So, the districts are possibly more than a little off, yet the majority of the machinations for the selection of delegates are based upon the districting system. So, each district is measured as to how Democratically it voted last time, and those districts with higher Democratic voting rates are given more delegates for contest, and those who have not fared as many Democrats, do not get as many. Which means a candidate will do best by ignoring the less Democratic, more independent districts and focus only on their base. For example, if a district was 5% of the Democratic vote previously, but had lots of undecideds it would be ignored in favor of a district that had accounted for 15% of the Democratic vote. It encourages no new minds are won over, merely that the party machines can have a better control and the party elites can reward more of the party faithful with a greater voice. And that's where most of the delegates are awarded.
Just most. 25% of the rest of the delegates are decided at the statewide convention. See, the elections on Tuesday will directly elect only 75% of the national delegates Texas will send to the national convention in Denver in August. However, after voting polls are done, at 7:15 there will be a precinct convention, which takes place at every voting place to determine delegates sent to the state convention. This is like a caucus in that the number of people who show up for one candidate will sway which way the vote can go. There will be a ballot to name delegates, who have previously announced which candidate they would vote for (for example, delegate wannabe Smith would declare for Obama, while delegate wannabe Jones would declare for Clinton). Each person who is at this precinct meeting can name 4 names of delegates whom they want to send to the state convention. After the numbers are meted out, the state delegates from each district are decided on. On March 29, there is a state convention in Texas to determine by majority vote whom the 25% remaining delegates will pledge themselves to. It is also at this point the Texas superdelegates will make their preferences known and cast their votes for whichever candidate they prefer. After all that is tallied, the state of Texas will then be able to tell the world how many delegates for each candidate they will send.
Yeah, like I said, it's fucked up.
Brief recap. First, there is an election on Tuesday March 4 in which anyone can vote. Yes, Texas, for all this crap, has an open primary, any registered voter irrespective of party (since they don't track by party affiliation) can vote. 75% of available delegates are awarded per district proportionally based on their average portion of the Democratic vote in the last presidential and gubernatorial races. Each person casts one vote. After the polls close, at exactly 7:15, local caucuses will take place to determine which pledged delegates will be sent to the state convention, where a majority vote will be taken to determine for whom the other 25% of delegates will vote. Superdelegates will also make their preferences known and that's the ball of wax.
If there is anyway the Texas legislature and Democratic party could have made this more fucked up, please don't tell me.
So it is written, so do I see it.
First off, delegates are decided not in a general decision, but by Texas Senatorial district (31 in all), which determines local representation at the state level. A careful observer will note that 31 does not go into 161 evenly. 35 of those are superdelegates, so this leaves 126, which still doesn't divide the delegates evenly among the districts. That's okay, the noble Texans took this into account. 75% of the available delegates are awarded proportionally based on how fervently they have voted Democratic in the past. You take the percentage that district voted as a portion of the total Democratic vote of the state in the last presidential election and average it with same percentage of the last gubernatorial (governor) race. For example, if a district accounted for 5% of the total Democratic vote in presidential race and 9% of the total Democratic vote in the governor race, that district would get 7% of the proportioned delegates. Yes, it doesn't matter what current poll or population is, it is only based on how the district previously voted.
A note is deserved here about the Texas districts. They are pretty messed up, even the Supreme Court has said they need to clean it up. And they've needed to clean it up for the past few years. There is a district, the 23rd district that stretches from the border of Mexico into the heart of Austin, over 300 miles away. It is also notable that this one district contains a disproportionate number of Hispanics, notably low despite its massive size. This has been an ongoing fight since 2003 (this site has a full reference set of every court opinion handed down about this issue). So, the districts are possibly more than a little off, yet the majority of the machinations for the selection of delegates are based upon the districting system. So, each district is measured as to how Democratically it voted last time, and those districts with higher Democratic voting rates are given more delegates for contest, and those who have not fared as many Democrats, do not get as many. Which means a candidate will do best by ignoring the less Democratic, more independent districts and focus only on their base. For example, if a district was 5% of the Democratic vote previously, but had lots of undecideds it would be ignored in favor of a district that had accounted for 15% of the Democratic vote. It encourages no new minds are won over, merely that the party machines can have a better control and the party elites can reward more of the party faithful with a greater voice. And that's where most of the delegates are awarded.
Just most. 25% of the rest of the delegates are decided at the statewide convention. See, the elections on Tuesday will directly elect only 75% of the national delegates Texas will send to the national convention in Denver in August. However, after voting polls are done, at 7:15 there will be a precinct convention, which takes place at every voting place to determine delegates sent to the state convention. This is like a caucus in that the number of people who show up for one candidate will sway which way the vote can go. There will be a ballot to name delegates, who have previously announced which candidate they would vote for (for example, delegate wannabe Smith would declare for Obama, while delegate wannabe Jones would declare for Clinton). Each person who is at this precinct meeting can name 4 names of delegates whom they want to send to the state convention. After the numbers are meted out, the state delegates from each district are decided on. On March 29, there is a state convention in Texas to determine by majority vote whom the 25% remaining delegates will pledge themselves to. It is also at this point the Texas superdelegates will make their preferences known and cast their votes for whichever candidate they prefer. After all that is tallied, the state of Texas will then be able to tell the world how many delegates for each candidate they will send.
Yeah, like I said, it's fucked up.
Brief recap. First, there is an election on Tuesday March 4 in which anyone can vote. Yes, Texas, for all this crap, has an open primary, any registered voter irrespective of party (since they don't track by party affiliation) can vote. 75% of available delegates are awarded per district proportionally based on their average portion of the Democratic vote in the last presidential and gubernatorial races. Each person casts one vote. After the polls close, at exactly 7:15, local caucuses will take place to determine which pledged delegates will be sent to the state convention, where a majority vote will be taken to determine for whom the other 25% of delegates will vote. Superdelegates will also make their preferences known and that's the ball of wax.
If there is anyway the Texas legislature and Democratic party could have made this more fucked up, please don't tell me.
So it is written, so do I see it.