Fighting Coronation
As this blog starts, the New Hampshire primary is decided for the Republicans, with McCain winning big and undecided for the Democrats. As this is written, Sen. Clinton just defeated Sen. Obama by 2%, even though it took hours after the polls have closed. The Republican primaries were declared at about 8:30, but this took two and a half hours to be called. Politics is not math; sometimes math gets involved but it's not mathematical by any stretch of the imagination. Just yesterday many pundits from bloggers to professionals were all calling this primary handily for Barack Obama based on exit polling. Even Clinton staffers were talking about being happy with a 5 point loss, but it looks like Clinton's going to win by a few points. Every statistical model would have had Obama winning, even at some points tonight, but politics is not math. It's barely predictable, even in the best of years, and this is the most tumultuous of years. Even in this blog it has been suggested all the previous conventional wisdom is useless, and it really is. But, the voters in New Hampshire, like the voters Iowa, bucked a lot of predictions and pollsters and decided to vote how they felt regardless, or perhaps in spite of, how they were told to. but this should have been predicted, Americans hate coronations.
Before Iowa, many were calling for Clinton to be coronated after Iowa, and that never happened. Barack Obama was supposed to win here then conquer the South, and that never happened. And in one more upset, the Nevada Culinary Workers Union Local 226 just announced they were going to support Barack Obama. Previously, Nevada had been seen as a showdown state between Edwards and Clinton. Hillary Clinton's emotional moment seems to have, unlike other politicians breaking down, given her the final boost with women. Women, according to anecdotal evidence (which in politics, IS better than mathematical evidence), started to empathize with a woman who was working hard. It didn't help that Edwards said that it showed she should not be commander-in-chief since it showed her weakness. The big New Hampshire debate made it look like she was being ganged up on. She came across as the one thing she had not been previously, human. For a long time, she held herself up as the diamond candidate that was unassailable, but the more she got hit, the worse she looked. Now, she actually answered people's questions, she engaged reporters and acted like a politician.
And in the ever moving world that is campaign politics, we're all asking what's next? Well, nothing too fast. That's the greatest lesson we learned from tonight and we all should have learned from Iowa. The American primary race isn't over until it's all over. The delegate count is now tied for Clinton and Obama and Nevada is the next battleground (on January 19) and, at the rate things are going, Edwards may win that one. That will be a bloody battle as well, and it is good that it will be. Bill Clinton's complaints that Obama has not been tested enough by the media will be put to rest. Edwards, who took hind tit at 16% is talking about staying in it until the convention in August (late August at that). He's hoping for a great showing in Nevada, South Carolina and elsewhere and play the role of spoiler at the convention. The Democrats have multiple directions to follow, and for the first time in a while, Democrats look ready for a long hard fight. Of course, following great Democratic form, they're fighting each other.
The story is no less shocking, if shorter, on the Republican side. John McCain, written off by just about every political pundit over the summer won handily. He won by 5 points over Mitt Romney, marking the first time a Massachusetts governor has failed to win the New Hampshire primary in a presidential election. Huckabee came in third and Giuliani and Paul are fighting it out for fourth, which if Paul were to win would be a serious blow to Giuliani. Ron Paul has never been a serious threat to win, but he is the great spoiler. He is the par for any serious candidate; if you can't beat Paul, you can't win. But the next big fight for the Republicans is not Nevada but South Carolina and Michigan. Michigan, a week from tonight, is the last stand for Romney. It is his some state, where his father was governor for three terms and where McCain tonight has pledged to go next and fight harder. If McCain beats Romney by the margin he did tonight, Romney should stay in Michigan and sit out the rest of the campaign. South Carolina is where Thompson finally make a debut worth talking about, Huckabee will be back in it for real, McCain will face stiff competition and Paul will, once again, get single digit numbers. And Duncan Hunter will be mentioned as an "also running". Or maybe just a "he's still in this?"
Michigan is a winner take all for the 15 delegates in an open primary, meaning anyone can vote, regardless of party affiliation. The Democratic party stripped Michigan of all its delegates for moving the primary back so far, prompting most Democratic delegates to remove their names from the primary election. But if Romney doesn't get more than 22% of the vote in Michigan, he's done. Heck, if he doesn't get more than 27% he should pack it in. If the best he can do is to get 32% of New Hampshire, then he's not gonna win a nation. So, McCain and Romney will fight it out in Michigan and Thompson, Huckabee, Paul and McCain will be fighting it out for dominance in South Carolina. Then comes Super Tuesday, when there are 21 states up for grabs and well, then Giuliani jumps in, and the fight gets bloodier.
The central point of this primary season, nothing is over until it's over. Each state will vote how it wants, each voter according to his or her own needs. Women flipped back to Clinton as they saw fit, and could flip another way, as they see fit. Blacks could come out in droves to help put Obama over the top in some states, and unions could eventually come out for Edwards and throw it all out of whack. Then again, none of the above groups are monolithic, and this election is all about being individuals. Predicting what votes will go where based on past actions of groups is, as some say, carrying coals to Newcastle. We can't get ahead of ourselves in trying to predict, but must restrain ourselves to analyze what has happened and personalities of candidates involved.
But reading voters' minds is not politic, but psychic.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Before Iowa, many were calling for Clinton to be coronated after Iowa, and that never happened. Barack Obama was supposed to win here then conquer the South, and that never happened. And in one more upset, the Nevada Culinary Workers Union Local 226 just announced they were going to support Barack Obama. Previously, Nevada had been seen as a showdown state between Edwards and Clinton. Hillary Clinton's emotional moment seems to have, unlike other politicians breaking down, given her the final boost with women. Women, according to anecdotal evidence (which in politics, IS better than mathematical evidence), started to empathize with a woman who was working hard. It didn't help that Edwards said that it showed she should not be commander-in-chief since it showed her weakness. The big New Hampshire debate made it look like she was being ganged up on. She came across as the one thing she had not been previously, human. For a long time, she held herself up as the diamond candidate that was unassailable, but the more she got hit, the worse she looked. Now, she actually answered people's questions, she engaged reporters and acted like a politician.
And in the ever moving world that is campaign politics, we're all asking what's next? Well, nothing too fast. That's the greatest lesson we learned from tonight and we all should have learned from Iowa. The American primary race isn't over until it's all over. The delegate count is now tied for Clinton and Obama and Nevada is the next battleground (on January 19) and, at the rate things are going, Edwards may win that one. That will be a bloody battle as well, and it is good that it will be. Bill Clinton's complaints that Obama has not been tested enough by the media will be put to rest. Edwards, who took hind tit at 16% is talking about staying in it until the convention in August (late August at that). He's hoping for a great showing in Nevada, South Carolina and elsewhere and play the role of spoiler at the convention. The Democrats have multiple directions to follow, and for the first time in a while, Democrats look ready for a long hard fight. Of course, following great Democratic form, they're fighting each other.
The story is no less shocking, if shorter, on the Republican side. John McCain, written off by just about every political pundit over the summer won handily. He won by 5 points over Mitt Romney, marking the first time a Massachusetts governor has failed to win the New Hampshire primary in a presidential election. Huckabee came in third and Giuliani and Paul are fighting it out for fourth, which if Paul were to win would be a serious blow to Giuliani. Ron Paul has never been a serious threat to win, but he is the great spoiler. He is the par for any serious candidate; if you can't beat Paul, you can't win. But the next big fight for the Republicans is not Nevada but South Carolina and Michigan. Michigan, a week from tonight, is the last stand for Romney. It is his some state, where his father was governor for three terms and where McCain tonight has pledged to go next and fight harder. If McCain beats Romney by the margin he did tonight, Romney should stay in Michigan and sit out the rest of the campaign. South Carolina is where Thompson finally make a debut worth talking about, Huckabee will be back in it for real, McCain will face stiff competition and Paul will, once again, get single digit numbers. And Duncan Hunter will be mentioned as an "also running". Or maybe just a "he's still in this?"
Michigan is a winner take all for the 15 delegates in an open primary, meaning anyone can vote, regardless of party affiliation. The Democratic party stripped Michigan of all its delegates for moving the primary back so far, prompting most Democratic delegates to remove their names from the primary election. But if Romney doesn't get more than 22% of the vote in Michigan, he's done. Heck, if he doesn't get more than 27% he should pack it in. If the best he can do is to get 32% of New Hampshire, then he's not gonna win a nation. So, McCain and Romney will fight it out in Michigan and Thompson, Huckabee, Paul and McCain will be fighting it out for dominance in South Carolina. Then comes Super Tuesday, when there are 21 states up for grabs and well, then Giuliani jumps in, and the fight gets bloodier.
The central point of this primary season, nothing is over until it's over. Each state will vote how it wants, each voter according to his or her own needs. Women flipped back to Clinton as they saw fit, and could flip another way, as they see fit. Blacks could come out in droves to help put Obama over the top in some states, and unions could eventually come out for Edwards and throw it all out of whack. Then again, none of the above groups are monolithic, and this election is all about being individuals. Predicting what votes will go where based on past actions of groups is, as some say, carrying coals to Newcastle. We can't get ahead of ourselves in trying to predict, but must restrain ourselves to analyze what has happened and personalities of candidates involved.
But reading voters' minds is not politic, but psychic.
So it is written, so do I see it.