Running the numbers
It looks like there's a fair shot that the GOP will take the House a little over a week from now. The NYT's 538 blog suggests that the GOP will hold a 230-205 margin. Looking at some of the other polls, right now the averages are: Democrats, 196, Tossups 36, GOP 203. The Real Clear Politics aggregator is predicting right now the GOP will have a majority.
The Senate? Very unlikely the GOP will force either a deadlock or get a majority. They'd more or less have to nearly run the table.
They currently have one vulnerable seat, which is Kentucky (Rand Paul), though 3 of the 5 surveyors have the GOP to hold this. It's their weakest defence seat.
The GOP is pretty certain, according to the surveys, to take ND, AR, WI and IN from the Democrats. (+4). Pennsylvania is looking a bit shaky, right now, but the GOP is clinging to a lead (+5). IL and CO are looking shakier still, but the GOP is still slighly favoured (+7).
Where things get interesting is the final four races. NV and WV are both rated tossups, and WA has a very shaky Democratic lead. CA may be a longshot.
The 538 blog indicates that the GOP has a 50% chance or better of winning everything through WV (but not CA or WA), which would be +9 and create a deadlock. Thus, it seems about a 7-9 seat gain is in the offing, consistent with what Real Clear Politics is predicting. That would make the Senate either 48-52, or possibly 50-50 (with WV and IL being, I think, immediate seating states, because of special elections).
If it goes to 50-50, things could get a little interesting, what with Collins, Snowe, Lieberman and Nelson.
The Senate? Very unlikely the GOP will force either a deadlock or get a majority. They'd more or less have to nearly run the table.
They currently have one vulnerable seat, which is Kentucky (Rand Paul), though 3 of the 5 surveyors have the GOP to hold this. It's their weakest defence seat.
The GOP is pretty certain, according to the surveys, to take ND, AR, WI and IN from the Democrats. (+4). Pennsylvania is looking a bit shaky, right now, but the GOP is clinging to a lead (+5). IL and CO are looking shakier still, but the GOP is still slighly favoured (+7).
Where things get interesting is the final four races. NV and WV are both rated tossups, and WA has a very shaky Democratic lead. CA may be a longshot.
The 538 blog indicates that the GOP has a 50% chance or better of winning everything through WV (but not CA or WA), which would be +9 and create a deadlock. Thus, it seems about a 7-9 seat gain is in the offing, consistent with what Real Clear Politics is predicting. That would make the Senate either 48-52, or possibly 50-50 (with WV and IL being, I think, immediate seating states, because of special elections).
If it goes to 50-50, things could get a little interesting, what with Collins, Snowe, Lieberman and Nelson.