I think maybe I'm reading the numbers wrong, because I've been looking at the troughs a lot, and I was discounting that I'd gained a couple pounds back in weeks 2-4 after the surgery where I really struggled the most.
But this chart suggests that the pace of loss is right on where I should expect, and the trendline says that the current rate of loss puts me right around 250 by the end of the year. This is behind where I had hoped, but is a reasonable goal and one I will shoot for. Clearly I have just been impatient after the surgery.
Edit: LiveJournal's image uploader cropped the damned image and it cut off the dates. That's 9/29 (the day I got back on track) to today, and the trend line is projected out to 1/1/16.
Edit 2: Or not, having text after the image got rid of the cropping. Weird.