Thoughts: Formula on outcome of presidency (part 1)
Funky thing I learned. I found from reading my brilliant textbook on microeconomics that there exists a model by a Dr. Ray Fair which supposedly predicts the election semi-accurately. Neat, huh? Also, I'm flooded with too much information now, that I found this. There's *le gasp* blogs.
[Formula]
It's computed but you need to look up the variables for the input.
Growth of Real GDP for the last 3 quarters of 2008 (GROWTH)
1st Quarter: 0.9%
2nd Quarter: 2.8%
3rd Quarter: ?
Unfortunately, we've just finished the 2nd quarter ending September. So how would I go on estimated or projecting the third? I would assume it would be lower than 2.8% with the increasing cost of goods and stagnant wages. I remember reading on the BLS report for September that average wages only rose by $0.03. Also, the price of gas and oil is falling but how long would it take to affect the market? We also have this financial thing going on that I don't understand. What is GDP, anyways? Jeez, I've been following the report on labor but not on GDP? What is wrong with me?
GDP is the total production of goods and services in an economy. Formula on Wikipedia is as follows:
GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
I'm wondering on how the $850 billion bill that just passed affects GDP. Hmm, it turns out that $700 billion is 5% of GDP. How is consumer spending affected right now. There was a 159,000 job loss and about a 101,000 more unemployed workers. The economy is not producing as much and is not utilziing is worker as efficiently. Will we see more bad news in the future? I think so. What should I put for 3rd quarter? I'll just throw a number out of my butt. We're heading in a recession or slow down, right? That means low/negative GDP growth. What happened to all the clamoring in the news that we were heading towards a recession? Recession, my butt, we've got estimated GDP growth of 2.8%. Either way, I'm going to put a low number for the 3rd quarter. 0.5%
1st Quarter: 0.9%
2nd Quarter: 2.8%
3rd Quarter: 0.5%
Sum: 4.2%
Mean: 1.4%
I'm tired. I tried looking for the rest of the data but it's a tough search. I'll try tomorrow to finish this. I'll even try to adjust the GDP thing by reading more articles. I feel like doing this myself before reading what other people have put. I'm tired. You know, what?
IT seems I've been totally ignoring this page I've reading. [July 31 Prediction].
Of course, the prediction obviously came before the end of the 2nd quarter in GDP and wait a tick. They put GDP as 1.5%. Hmm... It's close to what's up there.
The prediction made. (July 31, 2008)
Republicans will count for 48.5% of the vote share. Democrats win slightly, I'm assuming.
[Formula]
It's computed but you need to look up the variables for the input.
Growth of Real GDP for the last 3 quarters of 2008 (GROWTH)
1st Quarter: 0.9%
2nd Quarter: 2.8%
3rd Quarter: ?
Unfortunately, we've just finished the 2nd quarter ending September. So how would I go on estimated or projecting the third? I would assume it would be lower than 2.8% with the increasing cost of goods and stagnant wages. I remember reading on the BLS report for September that average wages only rose by $0.03. Also, the price of gas and oil is falling but how long would it take to affect the market? We also have this financial thing going on that I don't understand. What is GDP, anyways? Jeez, I've been following the report on labor but not on GDP? What is wrong with me?
GDP is the total production of goods and services in an economy. Formula on Wikipedia is as follows:
GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
I'm wondering on how the $850 billion bill that just passed affects GDP. Hmm, it turns out that $700 billion is 5% of GDP. How is consumer spending affected right now. There was a 159,000 job loss and about a 101,000 more unemployed workers. The economy is not producing as much and is not utilziing is worker as efficiently. Will we see more bad news in the future? I think so. What should I put for 3rd quarter? I'll just throw a number out of my butt. We're heading in a recession or slow down, right? That means low/negative GDP growth. What happened to all the clamoring in the news that we were heading towards a recession? Recession, my butt, we've got estimated GDP growth of 2.8%. Either way, I'm going to put a low number for the 3rd quarter. 0.5%
1st Quarter: 0.9%
2nd Quarter: 2.8%
3rd Quarter: 0.5%
Sum: 4.2%
Mean: 1.4%
I'm tired. I tried looking for the rest of the data but it's a tough search. I'll try tomorrow to finish this. I'll even try to adjust the GDP thing by reading more articles. I feel like doing this myself before reading what other people have put. I'm tired. You know, what?
IT seems I've been totally ignoring this page I've reading. [July 31 Prediction].
Of course, the prediction obviously came before the end of the 2nd quarter in GDP and wait a tick. They put GDP as 1.5%. Hmm... It's close to what's up there.
The prediction made. (July 31, 2008)
Republicans will count for 48.5% of the vote share. Democrats win slightly, I'm assuming.