Good polling
Thank heavens we're only 26 days out from the election. Now for the good news ...
There were two bad polls released today, one of which was discredited by the statisticians who looked at the poll's richness in different data fields and the other of which was an outlier (and even that showed Obama ahead). The best poll today is from the most reliable company ... Gallup. Obama is 11% points ahead nationally and he's even better off in the state by state contests (remember, the popular vote doesn't win so what is important are the state races that seal up the Electoral College votes). No way can they steal THAT many votes ... not without it being very obvious.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is predicting 346 electoral votes for Obama. He only needs 270 to win. Silver now gives Obama a 90.5 percent chance of winning. All he needs to do is win all the Kerry states (all of which he's ahead in) and a couple of others (one large ... one small ... and Obama's ahead in all kinds of formerly Republican strongholds). Is this a map I see before me ... why, yes, it is ... look at those blue states, my friends (if you'll excuse the expression after Mister McGoo used it so many times last night at the debate). It's not impossible that McGramps and Gidget could pull off a miracle but it's looking decidedly unlikely.
I am working on "Unanticipated Possibilities 2" but I just can't get a couple of passages (that help with the pacing) where I want them. I'm also working on the (weird blare of conspiratorial music) mystery novel. lol I'm such a perfectionist ... if I only I thought there was hope that I was "perfectionising" it to perfection (does that make sense?).
There were two bad polls released today, one of which was discredited by the statisticians who looked at the poll's richness in different data fields and the other of which was an outlier (and even that showed Obama ahead). The best poll today is from the most reliable company ... Gallup. Obama is 11% points ahead nationally and he's even better off in the state by state contests (remember, the popular vote doesn't win so what is important are the state races that seal up the Electoral College votes). No way can they steal THAT many votes ... not without it being very obvious.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is predicting 346 electoral votes for Obama. He only needs 270 to win. Silver now gives Obama a 90.5 percent chance of winning. All he needs to do is win all the Kerry states (all of which he's ahead in) and a couple of others (one large ... one small ... and Obama's ahead in all kinds of formerly Republican strongholds). Is this a map I see before me ... why, yes, it is ... look at those blue states, my friends (if you'll excuse the expression after Mister McGoo used it so many times last night at the debate). It's not impossible that McGramps and Gidget could pull off a miracle but it's looking decidedly unlikely.
I am working on "Unanticipated Possibilities 2" but I just can't get a couple of passages (that help with the pacing) where I want them. I'm also working on the (weird blare of conspiratorial music) mystery novel. lol I'm such a perfectionist ... if I only I thought there was hope that I was "perfectionising" it to perfection (does that make sense?).