Las Vegas Election Tracker
I've done some research for you all. First, I found Vegas odds for McCain and Obama offered on various days, then to help interpret them, I calculated the probability from the odds (A-B; take B/A to get the ratio R, then calculate R/(R+1)).
No odds found prior to August 22nd.
Biden announcement 8/22
8/23
Obama 2-5 (p=0.71)
McCain 7-3 (p=0.30)
Democratic Convention 8/25-8/28
8/26
Obama 4-9 (p=0.69)
McCain 13-8 (p=0.38)
Palin announcement 9/1
Republican Convention 9/1-9/4
9/3
Obama 1-2 (p=0.67)
McCain 3-2 (p=0.40)
9/6
Obama 5-9 (p=0.64)
McCain 7-5 (p=0.42)
Another odd tidbit:
9/3, CNN Money: "Intrade, an online prediction market based in Dublin, created a contract Tuesday morning on the likelihood that John McCain will drop Palin as his running mate. After opening at a probability of just 3%, the odds on Palin being cut from the ticket hovered around 14% yesterday. Predictions plateaued today at 10%, perhaps in response to yesterday's speeches by Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman."
No odds found prior to August 22nd.
Biden announcement 8/22
8/23
Obama 2-5 (p=0.71)
McCain 7-3 (p=0.30)
Democratic Convention 8/25-8/28
8/26
Obama 4-9 (p=0.69)
McCain 13-8 (p=0.38)
Palin announcement 9/1
Republican Convention 9/1-9/4
9/3
Obama 1-2 (p=0.67)
McCain 3-2 (p=0.40)
9/6
Obama 5-9 (p=0.64)
McCain 7-5 (p=0.42)
Another odd tidbit:
9/3, CNN Money: "Intrade, an online prediction market based in Dublin, created a contract Tuesday morning on the likelihood that John McCain will drop Palin as his running mate. After opening at a probability of just 3%, the odds on Palin being cut from the ticket hovered around 14% yesterday. Predictions plateaued today at 10%, perhaps in response to yesterday's speeches by Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman."