Predictions for 2024
(Reposted here from a December 28, 2023 post to post.news, which is shutting down)
And now, here are my predictions for 2024. Informally, I'm calling 2024 The Year of Finding Out, where a lot of questions about American Democracy are going to be answered for the duration. But what does that mean in detail? Here's how I think it will turn out.
1) Donald Trump will be convicted on multiple felony counts.
2) Joe Biden will win re-election.
3) Democrats will win barely enough seats to control the US House.
4) Right wing parties will have win enough seats in the June EU Parliamentary Elections to form a governing coalition.
5) Ukraine will negotiate a peace with Russia, which will include ceding to Russia a land bridge to Crimea.
6) Israel will all but annihilate Hamas by mid-Summer.
7) Venezuela will invade Guyana, dragging Brazil into a war.
8) The Supreme Court will split the difference on gun rights, ruling against the bump stock ban (Cargill v Garland) but in favor of forbidding gun ownership by persons subject to a domestic violence restraining order (US v Rahimi).
9) The permanent injunction on Oregon's Measure 114 will be overturned on appeal.
Let's go over these one at a time.
1) Donald Trump will be convicted on multiple felony counts.
Last year I predicted that he would be indicted. This year I'm predicting that Trump's legal strategy - which is to try to delay his trials so that they can't finish until after the 2024 election - will fail, and that he will be duly convicted on multiple felony counts before the general election.
The DC case (regarding Trump's actions Jan 6) is supposed to start trial on March 5. This may or may not happen on time; the Court of Appeals is working quickly to hear Trump's immunity appeal on insurrection charges, so while there might be a delay, it shouldn't be a long one. The Florida case (regarding classified documents) is supposed to start trial in May, and that's looking more promising. My guess is that Trump will be a criminal convict by the time the general election starts in earnest on Labor Day.
This isn't an easy one to get right, because Trump is not any other defendant. He is the vanguard of an authoritarian counter-revolution that is primed to destroy American democracy in order to protect various conservative interests. There are significant legal, financial and political resources ready to finish the job, and they are all going to come to bear in the coming months. It's going to be terrifying to behold.
Nonetheless, I have hope that the Wheels of Justice will turn as they are supposed to. Which leads us to the next prediction:
2) Joe Biden will win re-election.
This is also not an easy prediction to make, and it depends on the first one hitting home. Right now the polls show a tight race, with Trump ahead amongst registered voters but Biden ahead among likely voters. The election betting markets show Trump as the slight favorite. Once Trump is a convicted felon, the models show that all of that changes, and a significant minority of Trump voters will abandon him.
It is possible that the GOP will pick a new candidate, if Trump is convicted before the GOP Convention. By that time, I think the damage will be done to the GOP brand. It's unlikely all the billions available to the GOP will be able to save them, either.
3) Democrats will win barely enough seats to control the US House.
If Trump is indeed convicted, and is the face of the GOP, this is going to weigh down other GOP candidates. This SHOULD mean a complete GOP rout to rival the one they saw in 1964, but GOP gerrymandering, and general disgust with the status quo, will save them from that rout. On the other hand, key retirements in 2024 will narrow the GOP's already thin majority, and a recent court ruling in New York State means that several New York seats are going to switch hands. All of that lays the foundation for Democrats to manage a narrow majority.
It would be a mistake for Democrats to take such victories as a mandate for continuing the status quo. If there's anything the voters are telling the Democratic Party now, it's that the status quo is unaccepable. Voters are demanding a new normal. We can make a humane, progressive, democratic new normal, or end up with a new normal wherein America follows the footsteps of Putin's Russia. Winning in 2024 - which is NOT certain - will give us a reprieve. We can't push our luck hoping for another one in 2028.
4) Right wing parties will have win enough seats in the June EU Parliamentary Elections to form a governing coalition.
I think American democracy will survive by the skin of its teeth. The EU will have its own crisis, however, as right wing parties, which have been surging in recent elections, find themselves successful in elections to EU parliament. The results of those elections will include sharply restricted immigration and a reversal of policies intended to combat global warming.
5) Ukraine will negotiate a peace with Russia, which will include ceding to Russia a land bridge to Crimea.
Last year I predicted that the Russia-Ukraine War would basically be a stalemate in 2023. This has turned out to be the case. Both sides are grinding out small gains in territory at enormous cost in blood and treasure. This isn't sustainable for either of them, especially now that aid for Ukraine from the EU and US is held up by conservatives. One might think that Russia's massive investment in reactionary movements is now paying off dividends. Russia is signalling their conditions for peace include making Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk, and the land bridge, theirs forever. Without help from the EU and US, Ukraine is probably going to have to take the deal.
6) Israel will all but annihilate Hamas by mid-Summer.
I think this is a done deal. Hamas started this war expecting for Iran to back them. The US has scared off Iran, and all that's left is for Israel to sweep through Gaza and turn everyone left in Hamas to a bloody pulp.
The problem is that this is going to kill a lot of Palestinian civilians. Egypt doesn't want Palestinian refugees, so they're not going to open their border. Civilians are meanwhile being squeezed into a smaller and smaller portion of the Gaza Strip; a portion which, by the way, is nonetheless being bombed and shelled. And, Hamas isn't going to give up. I would put civilian casualties in the 100K range, and I'm being conservative.
This is a watershed moment for Israel in another way. Their reputation on the world stage has turned to dogshit. After this, there's going to be a LOT of international pressure for a permanent, equitable solution to the Palestinian crisis; one that recognizes that they, too, have a right to be there.
7) Venezuela will invade Guyana.
At issue is Guyana Esequiba, a 160K square kilometer chunk of land that makes up the western three-fifths of Guyana. Venezuela has, for centuries, said it belongs to them. Guyana says it's theirs, and the rest of the world, including the World Court, seems to agree with them.
Venezuela is signalling that they are willing to take Esequiba by force. Guyana's military is no match for Venezuela, but Brazil, the US, and others, might intervene. This would set South America up for its biggest war since the Falklands. Stay tuned.
8) The Supreme Court will split the difference on gun rights, ruling against the bump stock ban (Cargill v Garland) but in favor of forbidding gun ownership by persons subject to a domestic violence restraining order (US v Rahimi).
The Cargill case should be simple. Federal law strictly regulates machine guns. Bump stocks turn semi-automatic rifles into almost-machine-guns, so the ATF rules say that they're devices that turn semi-automatic rifles into machine guns. But almost-machine-guns are not machine guns and almost-but-not-quite-breaking-the-law isn't breaking the law. My guess is that SCOTUS will tell the ATF to rescind their regulation and indicate that this is something for Congress to fix (which I think they eventually will).
The Rahimi case should also be simple. Bruen says that you can't have a gun regulation without a corresponding historical precedent from the 18th Century. And, restraining orders as such weren't a thing in the 18th Century. So, Rahimi argues, he shouldn't be barred from owning a weapon. The Justices sounded unconvinced by this argument, and it's likely that they're going to rule against Rahimi. It will be interesting to see what the new test for gun laws looks like.
9) The permanent injunction on Oregon's Measure 114 will be overturned on appeal.
Last month, a Harney County judge ruled that Oregon's Measure 114, a sweeping gun restriction ballot measure, violates Oregon's Constitution and the right of Oregonians to use firearms for self-defense. The Attorney General has promised to appeal that ruling in the first few months of 2024. The smart money is that a court of appeals will overturn the Harney ruling and reinstate 114, probably by June. From there, it will go to the Oregon Supreme Court, and then probably back to the Federal courts. If I had to guess, the permit to purchase part will survive all those court challenges, but the poorly written magazine ban might not. I'm also guessing that the failure of the State of Oregon to have a working permit to purchase system in place will lead to a number of federal lawsuits. Stay tuned.
Aside from this, I think I'm going to have a pretty good time in 2024. My favorite idol, Himari Tsukishiro, has already promised to visit the USA again. I'm going to also take advantage of Otoboke Beaver, Amon Amarth, Ministry and Front Line Assembly touring. If Band-Maid plays the USA again, I will definitely go to at least one show. Necronomicon Providence is next August, and after that, I'm hoping to go to the Democratic Convention in Chicago. Of course the Portland H. P. Lovecraft Film Festival will be in October.
With that, I hope you and yours have a fantastic 2024. Cheers!