It's easy to win when your opponent doesn't score
The Denver Broncos, through three games, have allowed a total of 16 points.
16! Less than a TD per game!
That's easily good for 1st in the NFL. The 2nd best in Points Allowed is the Jets defense, which has allowed 33 points -- more than twice as many as Denver has allowed!
Here's the PA for all the 3-0 teams:
Broncos: 16 pts
Jets: 33 pts
Colts: 45 pts
Giants: 48 pts
Ravens: 53 pts
Saints: 56 pts
Vikings: 57 pts
Unfortunately, Denver is middle-of-the-pack (around 14th in the NFL) in points scored. Their rushing attack looks great with Buckhalter and Moreno, but their passing attack looks like crap with Kyle Orton. He's a QB who can win if he only has to throw for 200 yards, but he hasn't looked like someone who can rally the team from a 14pt deficit in the middle of a game. (best game so far was 263 yds vs the Browns)
Granted, the Broncos have played: vs. the Browns, @ the Bengals, and @ the Raiders. An easy schedule, to be sure, but (1) there are no easy games in the NFL, and (2) two of those were road games.
The Browns (0-3) and the Raiders (1-2, with a win against 0-3 KC) are legitimately terrible. The Bengals (2-1) are a decent team which scored plenty against the Steelers in defeating them. The Bengals also beat the Packers in Lambeau, and were a fluky Brandon Stokley-deflection play away from being 3-0 themselves.
Good NFL teams whup the bad teams and hang in there with the good teams. The Broncos have shown they can do the former. The latter remains to be seen. Next 5 games: DAL, NE, @SD, @BAL, PIT. Although Dallas and New England look weaker than expected. Denver could manage to go 2-3 in that stretch. They should win one of those first 2 home games, and maybe pull an upset against one of the three latter teams in that stretch. (33% chance of an upset seems about right)
After that, the Broncos have a 4-game schedule of: @WASH, SD, NYG, @KC. The Chiefs and Redskins are terrible, and Denver should be able to go 2-2 here. Even if they get upset, they have a shot at beating SD in Denver. SD hasn't looked like a division winner yet.
Denver concludes with these final 4 games: @IND, OAK, @PHI, KC. Road games at Philly and at Indy are going to be huge challenges, but home games against Oakland and KC should be wins. That's another projected 2-2 month.
That adds up to:
3-0
2-3
2-2
2-2
a 9-6 season, with around a 4-2 division record. Which I would totally take right now. That might be good enough to win the division, or at least stay in the playoff picture for the final 2 weeks.
With the new coach and losing Cutler and Brandon Marshall and all the drama of the offseason, I never would have thought that I would still be expecting a 9-win season come October.
16! Less than a TD per game!
That's easily good for 1st in the NFL. The 2nd best in Points Allowed is the Jets defense, which has allowed 33 points -- more than twice as many as Denver has allowed!
Here's the PA for all the 3-0 teams:
Broncos: 16 pts
Jets: 33 pts
Colts: 45 pts
Giants: 48 pts
Ravens: 53 pts
Saints: 56 pts
Vikings: 57 pts
Unfortunately, Denver is middle-of-the-pack (around 14th in the NFL) in points scored. Their rushing attack looks great with Buckhalter and Moreno, but their passing attack looks like crap with Kyle Orton. He's a QB who can win if he only has to throw for 200 yards, but he hasn't looked like someone who can rally the team from a 14pt deficit in the middle of a game. (best game so far was 263 yds vs the Browns)
Granted, the Broncos have played: vs. the Browns, @ the Bengals, and @ the Raiders. An easy schedule, to be sure, but (1) there are no easy games in the NFL, and (2) two of those were road games.
The Browns (0-3) and the Raiders (1-2, with a win against 0-3 KC) are legitimately terrible. The Bengals (2-1) are a decent team which scored plenty against the Steelers in defeating them. The Bengals also beat the Packers in Lambeau, and were a fluky Brandon Stokley-deflection play away from being 3-0 themselves.
Good NFL teams whup the bad teams and hang in there with the good teams. The Broncos have shown they can do the former. The latter remains to be seen. Next 5 games: DAL, NE, @SD, @BAL, PIT. Although Dallas and New England look weaker than expected. Denver could manage to go 2-3 in that stretch. They should win one of those first 2 home games, and maybe pull an upset against one of the three latter teams in that stretch. (33% chance of an upset seems about right)
After that, the Broncos have a 4-game schedule of: @WASH, SD, NYG, @KC. The Chiefs and Redskins are terrible, and Denver should be able to go 2-2 here. Even if they get upset, they have a shot at beating SD in Denver. SD hasn't looked like a division winner yet.
Denver concludes with these final 4 games: @IND, OAK, @PHI, KC. Road games at Philly and at Indy are going to be huge challenges, but home games against Oakland and KC should be wins. That's another projected 2-2 month.
That adds up to:
3-0
2-3
2-2
2-2
a 9-6 season, with around a 4-2 division record. Which I would totally take right now. That might be good enough to win the division, or at least stay in the playoff picture for the final 2 weeks.
With the new coach and losing Cutler and Brandon Marshall and all the drama of the offseason, I never would have thought that I would still be expecting a 9-win season come October.