за время отсутствия
Больше всех в отпуск хочет тот, у кого он только что закончился. Это про меня. Но пора работать. Думаю, стоит отметить несколько интересных новостей и событий, ктр. произошли за время моего отсутствия, т.е. с 3 июня.
Новый обзор от Мередит Уитни: States are worse than estimated - Today, debt service absorbs half of Nevada's budget, and 40% of Michigan's. In Arizona, California, Connecticut, Ohio and Illinois, the share now exceeds 20%. The states are systematically underfunding their pensions. States have two types of liabilities that are fully backed by tax revenues. One is on-balance sheet, and the other is excluded from the states' books. The first type is the General Obligation bonds that fund salaries and current expenses. Those are fully visible to investors. But the bigger problem is the giant shadow cast by the pension and OPEB liabilities that are absent from balance sheets. In fact, states weren't even required to report the OPEB number at all until 2008, and the pension figure is consistently understated because states generally far overestimate future returns on their retirement funds. these off-balance sheet numbers are an incredible three times the size of all on-balance sheet debt, totaling $2 trillion. The load is rising quickly; the unfunded pension burden has jumped 50% in the past year. low-tax, business friendly venues such as Texas and North Carolina keep drawing companies and workers from the fiscally-challenged states. That could cause a vicious cycle where the weak get even weaker as their tax bases erode, and the strong reap the rewards from fiscal prudence. The damage from state arbitrage could increase the scale of defaults in the second type of municipal securities: Revenue Bonds. Revenue Bonds back specific projects such as subsidized housing, toll roads, land acquisitions, and nursing homes. Those bonds are supported by the cash flows from the projects themselves, and they aren't guaranteed by the state governments. So if the cash flows fall short of the interest payments, they need to be restructured -- at a big cost to the investors who own them. And the revenue bonds now dwarf general bonds in total dollar amount outstanding, totaling $2.7 trillion, versus $1.4 trillion for the GOs. Whitney points out that Florida has issued 90% of its municipal offerings in revenue bonds, many tied to real estate.
Плач беззубых немецких финансистов 6 июня: letter that Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble sent to Troika.
Вопрос банкира на конференции МВФ в Атланте 7 июня, адресованный Бернанке: "Has anyone bothered to study the cumulative effect of all these things? And do you have a fear, like I do, that when we look back and look at them all that they will be a reason it took so long that our banks, our credit, our businesses and most importantly, job creation, started going again?" ... а Bernanke отвечает: "It's probably going to take a bit of time before we - over time- figure out where the cost exceeds the benefit and we make the appropriate adjustments."
China the “new dotcom” according to Martin Wheatley, the outgoing head of Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission. "Everybody wants a piece of China. Therefore, there has been a rush to Chinese companies without investors asking "the normal questions" about their fundamentals” - WSJ
Почему надо повысить лимит долга, не дожидаясь 2 авг. - предостережение Бернанке: Some have suggested that payments by the Treasury could be prioritized to meet principal and interest payments on debt outstanding, thus avoiding a technical default on federal debt. However, even if that were the case, given the current size of the deficit and the uneven time pattern of government receipts and payments, the Treasury would soon find it necessary to prioritize among and withhold critical disbursements, such as Social Security and Medicare payments and funds for the military. Moreover, while debt-related payments might be met in this scenario, the fact that many other government payments would be delayed could still create serious concerns about the safety of Treasury securities among financial market participants"
а 40% Treasuries используются как эквиваленты денег, и банки это знают лучше всех: Banks to cut their use of US Treasuries starting in early Aug as a precaution against any market turbulence that may arise from a debt ceiling breach. FT
Should investors be concerned by the inverted yield curves in India and Brazil? Most investors view an inverted curve as a sign of trouble. Right now the European peripherals have the most inverted curves in the world. However, Brazil and India are increasingly inverted too. FT
Роберт Шиллер: высокая вероятность приближения очередной рецессии в США
Brent crude markets to see more transparency - ICE will start publishing more information disclosing details on the types of traders operating in Brent markets. The NYMEX has already been doing this for WTI. FT
Corn - CFTC extended the review period for six weeks (from June 24 to Aug 8) of CME’s proposal to hike daily trading limits for its corn contracts. Reuters
China debt - A Credit Suisse analyst says China’s local gov’t debt is the largest time bomb for the nation in 17 years covering the economy. Credit Suisse says this is one of the major threats to Chinese economic stability, although they don’t anticipate an immediate blow-up because the property sector isn’t showing any drastic signs of slowing. Bloomberg
China premier Wen writes an oped in the FT and declares the country’s victory over inflation. “China has made capping price rises the priority of macro-economic regulation and introduced a host of targeted policies. These have worked….we are confident price rises will be firmly under control this year”. FT
Greek banks sharply increased their borrowings from the European Central Bank in May to EUR97.5 billion, reversing a four-month downtrend - DJ
Центробанки БИК действуют: ЦБ Бразилии 8 июня увеличил базовую учетную ставку рефинансирования на 0,25% до уровня 12,25%, Китай повысил RRR14 июня, Индия повысила ставку репо на 25б.п. до 7,5%
ну и конечно главное: МЭА выделит 60 млн баррелей нефти для стабилизации цен
Flash Markit Eurozone Services PMI fell to 54.2 in June from May's 56.0, its lowest level since December, and missing expectations for 55.5. The flash manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 from 54.6 in May, its lowest level since December 2009 and much lower than consensus expectations in a Reuters poll for 53.8. The euro zone composite PMI fell to 53.6 from 55.8, well below forecasts for 55.1. The new orders index for manufacturers fell into negative territory for the first time since July 2009 (fell from May’s 53.3 to 49.6). When you strip out France and Germany from the euro zone numbers, the rest of the region slipped back into contraction.