Prop 8: stop holding your breath, but don't give up
I only say "stop holding your breath" because this one's not going to be decided on the basis of the preliminary count, and probably won't be decided on the basis of the semi-final count either. As I type this, there's a spread of some 350,000 votes. If I understand things correctly, this does not yet include absentee, mail-in or early votes yet. Over 100,000 early votes were cast in San Francisco County; over 250,000 early votes were cast in Alameda County. I don't know what the numbers are like across the state, but I can only assume they're also quite high.
Thus, the question comes down to one of whether more early and absentee voters supported or opposed Prop 8. My guess -- and bear in mind this is only a guess -- is that more early voters opposed it, as the Obama campaign put out a concerted effort to get people to vote early and Obama supporters were more likely to oppose Prop 8.
I'll follow up on this after I've had some sleep, but at this point, I need to pass out for a little while.
Thus, the question comes down to one of whether more early and absentee voters supported or opposed Prop 8. My guess -- and bear in mind this is only a guess -- is that more early voters opposed it, as the Obama campaign put out a concerted effort to get people to vote early and Obama supporters were more likely to oppose Prop 8.
I'll follow up on this after I've had some sleep, but at this point, I need to pass out for a little while.