Argument Essay 9
"Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour. Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent. But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period. Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase."
The given argument is a set of statements that hope to support the idea that a reduction in the speed limit for the vehicles travelling in Forestville's highways will automatically lead to a reduction in the number of automobile accidents in the region. The proposition is supported with information on Forestville's previous laws, and with data on automobile accidents in a neighbouring region, Elmsford. The argument, though, is not convincing enough mainly due to its reliance on unjustified generalizations, among other factors.
A primary claim made to recommend reduced speed limits in Forestville to previous levels, is that since the recent increase in the speed limit, the number of accidents has increased by 15 percent. Information has not been supplied as to why this increase was implemented in the first place. Consider a situation where an automobile manufacturing plant that generates immense economic benefits and employment opportunity to Forestville, has recently begun operations near Forestville. In such a case, the amount of traffic on the highways would increase to facilitate the working of the plant, and thus the increase in speed limit would be beneficial rather than detrimental to Forestville as it would help boost the plant's production and thus generate more revenue for Forestville's municipal authorities. The benefits of the increase in speed limit must thus be weighed before it is categorized as wrong.
A 15 percent increase in accidents has been attributed to the increase in speed limit in Forestville. Firstly, a comparitive statistic on the average increase or decrease in accident rates in Forestville over the past few years, has not been included. We thus cannot be sure if a 15 percent increase is significant or not. Another issue is that we do not have an idea of the actual number of vehicles that pass through the region of Forestville. If there were 20 accidents per 10000 vehicles previous to the speed limit increase, and now there are 23 accidents per 10000 vehicles, then the 15 percent increase would be extremely insignificant compared to the benefits caused to commuters due to the speed limit increase - some benefits being reduced commuting time and less traffic on the highways due to faster movement.
The argument cites information on how Elmsford did not change its speed limit, and that the number of automobile accidents declined slightly in the same period. There could be many reasons why this is the case - Elmsford could perhaps have roads less condusive to accidents, having wide, straight roads compared to Forestville's looping, narrow highways. Also, commuters in Elmsford could perhaps have preferred to take alternate routes running through Forestville precisely because of Forestville's new speed limits. But primarily, the reasons for the decline in Elmsford's accident rates are not indicated. Like in Forestville's case, there is no information provided linking a change (or lack of change) in speed limits having anything to do with the change in the number of accidents. The cause does not lead to the effect - the maintenance of speed limits in Elmsford could have nothing to do with the marginal decrease in the number of accidents there.
The final conclusion made is that if accidents on Forestville's highways need to decrease, the speed limit must be lowered to previous levels to achieve this. It does not indicate how many accidents occured purely as a result of an increase in speed limits - it is very possible the accidents referred to occurred with no relation to speeds; a great majority of the accidents could have occured due to driver error, and perhaps even at speeds far below the previous speed limit. Given such information, the increase in accidents definitely cannot be attributed solely to the increase in speed limits.
The argument does not give sufficient concrete information on how the increase in speed limit, but instead relies purely on weak and subjective comparisions to stress its point that the increase in speed limit is the primary cause for the increase in accidents. Thus, the argument is not sufficiently well reasoned if taken in its entireity, and would be far more convincing if more information on the actual relation between the speed limit increase and the accidents that occurred due to it, were made available.